Alberta Municipal Elections, Referendum(s), and Senate Nominee Election: October 18, 2021

[mileslunn]

What are chances senate winner is not a right winger as they are a few independents who are centrist and one, Duncan Kinney is a progressive?  I would have thought with anger at Kenney there is a chance of that.  However it seems most not on right don't bother voting in senate elections as they are a waste.

For referendums, any chance Kenney's unpopularity kills them?  I would think right now with how unpopular Kenney is, mood for greater autonomy is much weaker than a few years ago.

[mileslunn]

Overall a good night for progressives.  Sohi won big, but Gondek not only won but won big.  Fact both Nickel and Farakas who are both Reform type UCP supporters lost badly suggests that type of conservatism no longer sells in either city and both are fairly progressive although I think a Red Tory could win in both.  Equalization referendum only reported in some municipalities, but my guess is it will be around 60% yes and considering where things were a year ago, that is a big drop.  I think Kenney's unpopularity hurt it as while Trudeau still very unpopular in Alberta, many dislike Kenney even more.  Daylight savings time I am guessing fails, but seems did best in Southern Alberta weaker in Northern but we shall see.

On senate race, no surprise all 3 were Conservatives but my understanding is most progressives don't bother voting in senate races and only Conservatives do as most progressives realize a waste of time since Trudeau is under no obligation to appoint them and he will not.  I think idea of elected senate is more an 80s thing that goes back to Meech Lake and Charlottetown Accords and with most Albertans not being born or too young to vote then, I don't think it has same appeal it once did.  Days of Reform Party being popular in Alberta long gone.  The Manning/Harper ideology doesn't have support it once did.  Still popular in Rural Alberta where it seems public has moved even further right, but very unpopular in two cities where most live.

Actually if Liberals and NDP were smart, they should start putting more effort into Alberta as I think hostility to both parties is more regionalism than ideology.  I think many Albertans philosophically identify with both federal parties, but feel they are too hostile to province so either don't vote at all or reluctantly vote Conservative.

Be interesting how Kenney reads this, but I think results along with polls are telling him it would be a good idea for him to take a walk in the snow and resign if he wants the UCP to have a fighting chance.  Not saying with new leader, they would bounce back, but at least they have a chance whereas with Kenney they do not.

[mileslunn]

Calgary may be the most Conservative city for its size, but generally speaking there are few cities its size I can think of that routinely vote for right.  In US, not a single city as big as Calgary voted for Trump.  Oklahoma City was the largest Trump won and barely.  In UK, Boris Johnson won by dominating the smaller cities, otherwise those similar in size to Regina and Saskatoon, but lost the larger cities.  In fact in Europe, Milan and Madrid are only cities I can think of off the top of my head that are larger than Calgary and routinely vote for right wing parties.  In Australia you have Brisbane, Perth, and Adelaide which are larger and went for L/NP but at state level Brisbane and Perth went Labor so its a mix. 

So point is cities as large as Calgary don't generally tend to vote for right wing parties.  Main reason Conservatives federally dominate is more regionalism than ideology as many see Liberals and NDP as hostile to province.  I think Liberals have great opportunity to breakthrough in Alberta just as Tories do in Atlantic Canada and Quebec, but both are too much stuck in past they cannot see this opportunity. 

[mileslunn]

Tories easily won G London in 1983 and (especially) 1987, but 1992 saw a sizeable pro-Labour swing.

Up until 1997, yes London went mostly Conservative but then again Conservatives everywhere did better in urban areas than they do now while worse in rural.  In 1997, 2001, and 2005, Labour won London, but popular vote in London was close to national average.  It started to diverge under Cameron and then under May massively diverged with Labour more than 10 points higher in London than country as whole and Tories more than 10 points lower.

[mileslunn]

Calgary may be the most Conservative city for its size, but generally speaking there are few cities its size I can think of that routinely vote for right.  In US, not a single city as big as Calgary voted for Trump.  Oklahoma City was the largest Trump won and barely.  In UK, Boris Johnson won by dominating the smaller cities, otherwise those similar in size to Regina and Saskatoon, but lost the larger cities.  In fact in Europe, Milan and Madrid are only cities I can think of off the top of my head that are larger than Calgary and routinely vote for right wing parties.  In Australia you have Brisbane, Perth, and Adelaide which are larger and went for L/NP but at state level Brisbane and Perth went Labor so its a mix. 

So point is cities as large as Calgary don't generally tend to vote for right wing parties.  Main reason Conservatives federally dominate is more regionalism than ideology as many see Liberals and NDP as hostile to province.  I think Liberals have great opportunity to breakthrough in Alberta just as Tories do in Atlantic Canada and Quebec, but both are too much stuck in past they cannot see this opportunity. 

I think Stockholm tends to vote more for the rightwing parties than does the rest of Sweden

More so in suburbs which are fairly wealthy and there its more for standard centre-right parties not right wing populists.  But that is true and there are a few others.  Madrid is another example.  You have Milan and Nice as well.  But point is cities as large as Calgary or Edmonton voting for parties on right are becoming increasingly less common.  Off course depends on how ideological parties on right are.  If moderate like in some European countries, they can still win in larger cities, but further right they go worse they do.  You don't see right wing populists generally doing well in cities that large.

I think Edmonton clearly tilts left but not as left wing as Toronto, Vancouver, or Montreal.  Calgary still leans right, but its old PC style, not your Wildrose style conservatism.  If you look at vaccine rates, Calgary is in line with national average while rural Alberta is dragging province down.

On recent votes like abortion and gay conversion, most Calgary MPs voted way O'Toole did not socially conservative way.  Likewise in UCP caucus, none of the Calgary MLAs pushed for dropping all restrictions and acting like Texas or Florida, it was all the rural ones.  Even PPC, generally got below 5% in most Calgary ridings whereas in Rural Alberta usually in double digits.  2012 perhaps illustrated this as Calgary went mostly PC while rural Alberta mostly Wildrose.

[mileslunn]

Doesn't Munich and its 'burbs almost always give a plurality to the CSU in Germany?

Munich voted Green, but yes the suburbs went mostly CSU, but suburbs tend to be more bellwethers as opposed to solidly one way or another.

[mileslunn]

Final results are:

Three CPC senators won so no surprise but won't get appointed, at least not as long as Liberals are in power.  May whenever Tories return to power, but that could be a while.

Daylight savings change narrowly defeated 50.1% to 49.9% so talk about close

Equalization referendum passed easily at 61.7% yes to 38.3%.  Edmonton, Waterton Lakes, Banff, Canmore, and Jasper only municipalities to vote no on it.  So essentially Edmonton + heavy tourist areas.  Off course likely nothing happens here.

[mileslunn]

Doesn't Munich and its 'burbs almost always give a plurality to the CSU in Germany?

Munich voted Green, but yes the suburbs went mostly CSU, but suburbs tend to be more bellwethers as opposed to solidly one way or another.

In some ways Edmonton votes like Munich does at the federal level. Provincially its totally orange.

I just thought of another city that inexplicably keeps voting for the right - Quebec City! Its particularly odd because Quebec as a whole is quote centre-left so Quebec City actually votes to the roight of the province as a whole. This is in spite of the fact that Quebec City has a large university and is the provincial capital and therefore full of public sector workers. Its such a mystery that apparently whole books have been written trying to figure out why Quebec City is so conservative - it even voted for Social Credit in the early 60s. 

True although in Quebec City, the old city pre-amalgamation generally votes left, its more the suburbs especially on northern end as well as Levis that vote right.  But certainly compared to Quebec as a whole, Quebec City does definitely vote more conservative than most parts of the province. 

One theory I have heard is talk radio is very right wing there and that would make some sense as the rural areas just outside the city go mostly for right wing parties and Tories see big drop off in support right around where radio signal would typically end.