Nikki Fried is the only one in my opinion who could win. She demonstrated she can win a statewide race as a Democrat in Florida. Crist will fall flat as he’s the poster boy of political opportunist slime. Demings (my congresswoman) has a shot though if she can get through the primary. She isn’t seen as weak on crime which is important for moderate voters.
"Make your race all about legalizing weed" is a decent strategy for Ag Commissioner when you have strong candidates for Gov & Senate who will lift you up to 50%. Skeptical of whether it translates to this level.
Marijuana legalization has only gotten more popular, both recreational and medical. Depending on where you are, you don't even need a medical card to buy it. Lake County is one, surprisingly, given its heavy GOP lean.
Her biggest challenge will be avoiding being too damaged in the primary and being able to get the DeSantis corruption angle to stick. Another trick that might work in her favor is playing to the angle that "DeSantis doesn't care about you" by using his current job to springboard to a 2024 run. I'm less confident about the last one because I'm well aware of how terrible our state Democratic party is, also because the national GOP will do A-N-Y-T-H-I-N-G not to let Florida get away from them by any means necessary.