FL : DeSantis leads Crist by 6, Fried by 7, Demings by 8 (Victory Insights)
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  FL : DeSantis leads Crist by 6, Fried by 7, Demings by 8 (Victory Insights)
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Author Topic: FL : DeSantis leads Crist by 6, Fried by 7, Demings by 8 (Victory Insights)  (Read 1124 times)
Frenchrepublican
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« on: May 06, 2021, 02:54:08 AM »



Link : https://victory-insights.com/files/FLGov_PollReport_05-04.pdf

These numbers are even more incredible (from a DeSantis perspective) when you consider that the sample they are using is a 38% R vs 40% Dem one, to put things into perspective the 2018 electorate was R+1 and the 2020 one was R+4
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #1 on: May 06, 2021, 03:20:17 AM »

Safe R, now do users believe that Rubio is Safe, Stephanie Murphy has zero chance
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #2 on: May 06, 2021, 08:42:55 AM »

Likely R -> Likely R

About the margins I expect DeSantis to win in the end.
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TodayJunior
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« Reply #3 on: May 06, 2021, 11:52:49 AM »
« Edited: May 06, 2021, 04:01:38 PM by TodayJunior »

Nikki Fried is the only one in my opinion who could win. She demonstrated she can win a statewide race as a Democrat in Florida. Crist will fall flat as he’s the poster boy of political opportunist slime. Demings (my congresswoman) has a shot though if she can get through the primary. She isn’t seen as weak on crime which is important for moderate voters.
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Chips
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« Reply #4 on: May 06, 2021, 12:21:14 PM »

Lean R.
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Xing
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« Reply #5 on: May 06, 2021, 12:22:09 PM »

I won't trust polls in general, but those margins seem reasonable. Floriduh gonna Floriduh.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #6 on: May 06, 2021, 01:21:46 PM »
« Edited: May 06, 2021, 02:59:26 PM by President Johnson »

Likely Republican.

However, I could see polling showing this race competitive for a while or to the end and DeSantis still winning by five or six. Definitely don't see him losing although his policies and leadership style are terrible.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #7 on: May 06, 2021, 02:38:58 PM »

We are waiting for the Economy to come back but Ds can pick one from OH, GA, AZ, KS and FL as well as win with Tim Ryan, it's not over by a little ng shot but it's worth noting that in 2018 AZ, OH and KS went D

That's why I am supporting Ryan, Whaley that's the only red statee that  D's had a lead in it won't be a sweep
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Donerail
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« Reply #8 on: May 06, 2021, 03:08:38 PM »

Nikki Fried is the only one in my opinion who could win. She demonstrated she can win a statewide race as a Democrat in Florida. Crist will fall flat as he’s the poster boy of political opportunist slime. Demings (my congresswoman) has a shot though if she can get through the primary. She isn’t seen as weak on crime which is important for moderate voters.
"Make your race all about legalizing weed" is a decent strategy for Ag Commissioner when you have strong candidates for Gov & Senate who will lift you up to 50%. Skeptical of whether it translates to this level.
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S019
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« Reply #9 on: May 06, 2021, 03:11:35 PM »

No undecideds=trash


I'm sorry but not offering an undecided option this early on is just dumb, since much of the support on both sides could be soft.
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The Smiling Face On Your TV
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« Reply #10 on: May 06, 2021, 03:36:26 PM »

Likely R------>Likely R. Ds are spinning in the mud in Florida until they cut into the party infrastructure gap. FLDP is an absolute disaster from the bottom-up.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #11 on: May 06, 2021, 03:58:27 PM »

This is Trump country of course, DeSantis gets a pass on most issues even the voter suppression laws he just passed
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TodayJunior
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« Reply #12 on: May 06, 2021, 04:07:27 PM »
« Edited: May 06, 2021, 04:14:23 PM by TodayJunior »

Nikki Fried is the only one in my opinion who could win. She demonstrated she can win a statewide race as a Democrat in Florida. Crist will fall flat as he’s the poster boy of political opportunist slime. Demings (my congresswoman) has a shot though if she can get through the primary. She isn’t seen as weak on crime which is important for moderate voters.
"Make your race all about legalizing weed" is a decent strategy for Ag Commissioner when you have strong candidates for Gov & Senate who will lift you up to 50%. Skeptical of whether it translates to this level.

Marijuana legalization has only gotten more popular, both recreational and medical. Depending on where you are, you don't even need a medical card to buy it. Lake County is one, surprisingly, given its heavy GOP lean.

Her biggest challenge will be avoiding being too damaged in the primary and being able to get the DeSantis corruption angle to stick. Another trick that might work in her favor is playing to the angle that "DeSantis doesn't care about you" by using his current job to springboard to a 2024 run. I'm less confident about the last one because I'm well aware of how terrible our state Democratic party is, also because the national GOP will do A-N-Y-T-H-I-N-G not to let Florida get away from them by any means necessary.
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Holy Unifying Centrist
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« Reply #13 on: May 06, 2021, 05:39:09 PM »

Not as good as I'd like to see tbh. I was hoping he'd be up by a lot more.

I'm also very surprised that Charlie Crist is apparently so popular. He only outperformed Biden by 2% in 2020. He did knock out an incumbent in 2016, though.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #14 on: May 06, 2021, 05:51:10 PM »

Rubio was ahead by 6 pts in his last poll, no way of this poll is accurate that Stephanie Murphy beats Rubio

Obviously, the poll that showed DeSantis tied with Fried was University poll, junk poll, DeSabtis was always the fav
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #15 on: May 06, 2021, 06:24:42 PM »

Relatively speaking, DeSantis actually should be doing better. But knowing Florida polling this would probably translate to double these margins in the actual elections. So it's Still safe R, in spite of that.

Also is Crist really the best Democratic candidate of the three here? Wow! This state never ceases to convince me that it's beyond saving.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #16 on: May 06, 2021, 06:36:48 PM »

DeSantis would win by about that margin even if FL Democrats had a better """party infrastructure""" (not that people aren’t exaggerating how much continued R success in this state can be attributed to supposedly poor Democratic ground organization). Likely R.
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Pollster
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« Reply #17 on: May 07, 2021, 10:10:56 AM »

Polls with no undecideds are useless with regards to evaluating the shape of a race (especially this far out), but could be useful in observing trends if this pollster releases another poll conducted the same way.
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