Economist/YouGov weekly poll of various politicos, including 2024 candidates

[Mr. Morden]

Sept. 18-21:

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/h4zvi2yb6c/econTabReport.pdf

Biden 47/46% for +1%
Harris 42/47% for -5%
Trump 41/52% for -11%

Dems only:
Biden 89/9% for +80%
Harris 82/10% for +72%

GOP only:
Trump 83/15% for +68%

[Mr. Morden]

Sept. 26-28:

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/ab8vvo6g3z/econTabReport.pdf

Biden 44/49% for -5%
Harris 40/50% for -10%
Trump 39/55% for -16%

Dems only:
Biden 86/12% for +74%
Harris 81/13% for +68%

GOP only:
Trump 83/14% for +69%

[Mr. Morden]

Oct. 3-5:

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/j46zs8picp/econTabReport.pdf

Biden 43/48% for -5%
Pressley 17/23% for -6%
Harris 41/48% for -7%
Ocasio-Cortez 33/41% for -8%
Tlaib 22/34% for -12%
L. Cheney 26/39% for -13%
Trump 41/54% for -13%
Omar 24/38% for -14%
Manchin 21/38% for -17%
Sinema 16/34% for -18%
Greene 17/40% for -23%

Dems only:
Biden 88/11% for +77%
Harris 84/13% for +71%
Ocasio-Cortez 69/13% for +56%
Omar 53/16% for +37%
Tlaib 46/15% for +31%
Pressley 38/9% for +29%
Manchin 15/55% for -40%
Sinema 11/51% for -40%

GOP only:
Trump 85/14% for +71%
Greene 30/22% for +8%
L. Cheney 14/53% for -39%

[Mr. Morden]

Oct. 9-12:

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/h2rgoa7a3x/econTabReport.pdf#page249

Biden 43/51% for -8%
Pressley 17/25% for -8%
Ocasio-Cortez 33/42% for -9%
Harris 39/50% for -11%
Trump 40/52% for -12%
Sinema 19/32% for -13%
Manchin 23/37% for -14%
L. Cheney 27/41 for -14%
Omar 24/39% for -15%
Tlaib 20/36% for -16%
Greene 19/39% for -20%

Dems only:
Biden 85/11% for +74%
Harris 82/11% for +71%
Ocasio-Cortez 65/11% for +54%
Omar 48/14% for +34%
Tlaib 41/11% for +30%
Pressley 32/9% for +23%
Sinema 9/46% for -37%
Manchin 12/51% for -39%

GOP only:
Trump 86/14% for +72%
Green 35/18% for +17%
L. Cheney 14/57% for -43%

Also:

https://twitter.com/ArgoJournal/status/1448287136898293770

[Mr. Morden]

Oct. 16-19:

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/mzvq4c7ty8/econTabReport.pdf

Biden 44/49% for -5%
Buttigieg 31/36% for -5%
Harris 40/50% for -10%
Trump 39/55% for -16%

Dems only:
Biden 88/11% for +77%
Harris 81/14% for +67%
Buttigieg 56/15% for +41%

GOP only:
Trump 81/16% for +65%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Forget Buttigeg, IN will have to move up it's Primary, it's held in April in order to get past Harris he can win IA, but NH, NV and AC are gonna be hard for him

Biden is running he is pushing for VR reform and us in Act blue raising money for all candidate for Senate while Pelosi handles the H which will be next ye I will donate to not this yr, they didn't pass another Stimulus xheck


4 yrs isn't enough time to be in WH, but these pollsters love to poll Harris as being inevitable in 2024 not 2028

[Mr. Morden]

Oct. 16-19:

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/qwffht37bk/econTabReport.pdf

Sanders 43/44% for -1%
Abrams 31/33% for -2%
Buttigieg 33/36% for -3%
Biden 44/51% for -7%
Harris 41/49% for -8%
Ocasio-Cortez 32/44% for -12%
Trump 40/55% for -15%

Dems only:
Biden 88/10% for +78%
Sanders 82/13% for +69%
Harris 81/12% for +69%
Abrams 64/7% for +57%
Buttigieg 64/9% for +55%
Ocasio-Cortez 65/14% for +51%

GOP only:
Trump 82/16% for +66%

Also:

https://twitter.com/ArgoJournal/status/1453361884472750080

[Mr. Morden]

Oct. 30 - Nov. 2:

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/xtubiu759r/econTabReport.pdf#table.104

Biden 42/52% for -10%
Harris 38/49% for -11%
Trump 39/55% for -16%

Dems only:
Biden 85/13% for +72%
Harris 78/14% for +64%

GOP only:
Trump 85/13% for +72%

Also:

https://twitter.com/ArgoJournal/status/1455902990804656135

[kwabbit]

Wow, only 56% of independents believe the election was legitimate. Perhaps those are just MAGA independents who think it was illegitimate, but perhaps Trump was able to sow doubt in the electoral system across partisan or ideological lines to some extent.

[President Johnson]

Wow, only 56% of independents believe the election was legitimate. Perhaps those are just MAGA independents who think it was illegitimate, but perhaps Trump was able to sow doubt in the electoral system across partisan or ideological lines to some extent.

I have a feeling indpendents - at least white independents - are really anti-incumbent for some reason. Biden's lagging approval numbers are mostly driven down by them. Trump also started tanking immediately after he took office. I could see the same happen again with the next Republican president. Obama lost Independents in 2012 as well.

[kwabbit]

Wow, only 56% of independents believe the election was legitimate. Perhaps those are just MAGA independents who think it was illegitimate, but perhaps Trump was able to sow doubt in the electoral system across partisan or ideological lines to some extent.

I have a feeling indpendents - at least white independents - are really anti-incumbent for some reason. Biden's lagging approval numbers are mostly driven down by them. Trump also started tanking immediately after he took office. I could see the same happen again with the next Republican president. Obama lost Independents in 2012 as well.

Do you think that a lot of those independents started believing the election was illegitimate post hoc once they began disapproving of Biden?

[Mr. Morden]

Nov. 6-9:

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/87gqotkd1s/econTabReport.pdf

Biden 45/49% for -4%
Harris 40/49% for -9%
Trump 40/53% for -13%

Dems only:
Biden 89/9% for +80%
Harris 83/10% for +73%

GOP only:
Trump 83/15% for +68%

[Mr. Morden]

Nov. 14-16:

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/anoy7rtkl2/econTabReport.pdf

Biden 44/49% for -5%
Harris 40/50% for -10%
Trump 39/56% for -17%

Dems only:
Harris 83/12% for +71%
Biden 84/14% for +70%

GOP only:
Trump 84/14% for +70%

[Mr. Morden]

Nov. 20-23:

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/79n2jfbdep/econTabReport.pdf

Biden 44/50% for -6%
Harris 39/50% for -11%
Trump 41/54% for -13%

Dems only:
Biden 87/10% for +77%
Harris 81/14% for +67%

GOP only:
Trump 87/12% for +75%

[Mr. Morden]

Dec. 4 - 7:

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/o8u558c9sy/econTabReport.pdf

Abrams 31/32% for -1%
DeSantis 32/34% for -2%
Abbott 25/31% for -6%
O’Rourke 27/35% for -8%
Biden 43/52% for -9%
Omar 25/38% for -13%
Kemp 14/28% for -14%
Boebert 16/32% for -16%
Harris 38/54% for -16%
Trump 39/56% for -17%

Dems only:
Biden 81/15% for +66%
Harris 79/16% for +63%
Abrams 61/12% for +49%
O’Rourke 56/15% for +41%
Omar 49/17% for +32%

GOP only:
Trump 83/15% for +68%
DeSantis 64/9% for +55%
Abbott 47/9% for +38%
Boebert 30/12% for +18%
Kemp 19/22% for -3%

[Mr. Morden]

Jan. 2-4:

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/g43s025yft/econTabReport.pdf

Biden 43/50% for -7%
Harris 38/51% for -13%
Trump 39/54% for -15%

Dems only:
Biden 87/11% for +76%
Harris 79/14% for +65%

GOP only:
Trump 82/13% for +69%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

So, IPSOS LIED BIDEN ISNT AT 52/48

[Mr. Morden]

Jan. 15-18:

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/0runc17e13/econTabReport.pdf

Ocasio-Cortez 31/39% for -8%
Pressley 16/24% for -8%
Biden 42/51% for -9%
Manchin 25/35% for -10%
L. Cheney 28/38% for -10%
Tlaib 22/34% for -12%
Sinema 20/32% for -12%
Boebert 16/28% for -12%
Omar 24/38% for -14%
Harris 37/51% for -14%
Trump 40/55% for -15%
Greene 20/38% for -18%


Dems only:
Biden 82/17% for +65%
Harris 75/19% for +56%
Ocasio-Cortez 53/14% for +39%
Omar 51/13% for +38%
Tlaib 44/10% for +34%
Pressley 32/10% for +22%
Sinema 12/48% for -36%
Manchin 13/54% for -41%

GOP only:
Trump 78/19% for +59%
Greene 33/17% for +16%
Boebert 26/12% for +14%
L. Cheney 15/52% for -37%

Also, if Republicans win a majority in the House this year, here’s who Republican voters would prefer for Speaker:

Trump 32%
Someone Else 29%
McCarthy 22%
not sure 17%

[Mr. Morden]

Jan. 22-25:

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/w6rek2s6zg/econTabReport.pdf

Manchin 29/35% for -6%
Sinema 25/31% for -6%
L. Cheney 29/37% for -8%
Ocasio-Cortez 32/42% for -10%
Biden 40/53% for -13%
Boebert 15/30% for -15%
Greene 23/38% for -15%
Gaetz 19/34% for -15%
Harris 37/53% for -16%
Trump 38/54% for -16%

Dems only:
Biden 82/13% for +69%
Harris 78/15% for +63%
Ocasio-Cortez 63/13% for +50%
Manchin 15/56% for -41%
Sinema 10/52% for -42%

GOP only:
Trump 82/16% for +66%
Greene 41/18% for +23%
Gaetz 35/18% for +17%
Boebert 26/15% for +11%
L. Cheney 18/56% for -38%

Meanwhile, Putin is 11% favorable / 72% unfavorable, for -61%.

Putin among Dems:
8/81% for -73%

Trump among Dems:
9/86% for -77%

Putin among GOP:
15/72% for -57%

Biden about GOP:
9/89% for -80%

So, Trump’s unfavorable #s among Dems are worse than Putin’s unfavorable #s among Dems.  And Biden’s unfavorable #s among Republicans are worse than Putin’s unfavorable #s among Republicans.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Would you say Joe Biden is a strong or a weak leader?
Strong 37
Weak 63

Would you say Vladimir Putin is a strong or a weak leader?
Strong 78
Weak 22

[Mr. Morden]

Jan. 29 - Feb. 1:

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/9uqg6clnvr/econTabReport.pdf

Biden 45/50% for -5%
Harris 41/48% fof -7%
Trump 39/56% for -17%

Dems only:
Biden 85/11% for +74%
Harris 79/13% for +66%

GOP only:
Trump 80/17% for +63%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump has a 39 percent favs and Rs still think he's gonna be Prez plse

[Mr. Morden]

Feb. 26 - March 1:

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/aa58ig9d3b/econTabReport.pdf

Biden 44/49% for -5%
Trump 42/50% for -8%
Harris 40/49% for -9%

Dems only:
Biden 80/16% for +64%
Harris 71/19% for +52%

GOP only:
Trump 81/14% for +67%

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Feb. 26 - March 1:

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/aa58ig9d3b/econTabReport.pdf

Biden 44/49% for -5%
Trump 42/50% for -8%
Harris 40/49% for -9%

Dems only:
Biden 80/16% for +64%
Harris 71/19% for +52%

GOP only:
Trump 81/14% for +67%

Why did Trump suddenly jump in favorability so much? Last time he was at -17%, now he's at -8%. Did the Ukraine crisis help him?

[Mr. Morden]

Feb. 26 - March 1:

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/aa58ig9d3b/econTabReport.pdf

Biden 44/49% for -5%
Trump 42/50% for -8%
Harris 40/49% for -9%

Dems only:
Biden 80/16% for +64%
Harris 71/19% for +52%

GOP only:
Trump 81/14% for +67%

Why did Trump suddenly jump in favorability so much? Last time he was at -17%, now he's at -8%. Did the Ukraine crisis help him?

I haven’t been good about updating this every week, so as you can see from the dates here, the two polls are separated in time by about a month.  In between, they had additional polls that I didn’t post here, but you can see them all at 538:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/

For this particular pollster, the biggest move came between the Feb. 12-15 poll (Trump down by 13 points in favorability) to their Feb. 19-22 poll (Trump down by just 8 points in favorability).  But that means that the shift actually happened shortly *before* the Russian invasion of Ukraine.  I’m not sure what the reason is.

Oddly enough, that’s just YouGov’s polls that they do for the Economist.  They have another recent poll conducted for Yahoo News, that has Trump 17 points underwater.