Economist/YouGov weekly poll of various politicos, including 2024 candidates

[Mr. Morden]

The new Economist/YouGov national poll (conducted May 1-4) includes favorability #s for various politicos.  Below I include #s for both potential 2024 candidates, plus some humorous additions, like Cuomo and Gaetz:

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/lftymxzxfl/econTabReport.pdf

fav/unfav % among all adults:
Tim Scott 37/26% for +11%
Biden 49/43% for +6%
DeSantis 34/32% for +2%
Haley 33/32% for +1%
Harris 41/49% for -8%
Trump 40/51% for -11%
Gaetz 26/38% for -12%
Cuomo 25/53% for -28%

Dems only:
Biden 82/14% for +68%
Harris 74/19% for +55%
Cuomo 29/39% for -10%

GOP only:
Trump 78/19% for +59%
Tim Scott 58/9% for +49%
DeSantis 56/15% for +41%
Haley 53/16% for +37%
Gaetz 41/21% for +20%

[Mr. Morden]

So this poll shows that 66% of Americans have an opinion of Ron DeSantis.  That's almost as high as the 69% from another YouGov poll for Elizabeth Warren in *January 2019*:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=311087.0

Pretty impressive boost in name recognition compared to like 6 months ago, when nobody knew who he was.

[Chips]

Interesting.

[EastwoodS]

rip Harris. That’s too bad, I love the Kamala Harris Gifs tbh. “I’m speaking”💅

[Bomster]

+20 for Gaetz amongst Republicans??!!?!?

[Del Tachi]

Terrible numbers for Harris

If 2024 is a Harris vs DeSantis matchup, the GOP will easily win the popular vote

[Sir Mohamed]

Terrible numbers for Harris

If 2024 is a Harris vs DeSantis matchup, the GOP will easily win the popular vote

Sure.jan

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

+20 for Gaetz amongst Republicans??!!?!?

Gaetz (R), case closed.

[Sir Mohamed]

+20 for Gaetz amongst Republicans??!!?!?

The party of family values.

[Biden his time]

19% of African-Americans have a favorable opinion of Tim Scott (opposed to only 13% seeing Donald Trump favorably). This could make Tim Scott a potentially very dangerous candidate. After all, just chipping away a small percentage of African-Americans from the Democrats in Detroit and Philadelphia will turn the states they're in red fast.

Also, Joe Manchin's favorability rating among Trump voters is 42% favorable - 27% unfavorable, as opposed to 27% favorable - 41% unfavorable amongst Biden voters.      


Here are more breakdowns of favorability ratings:

Barack Obama: 51% Favorable, 40% Unfavorable (+11%)
Among Biden voters: 89% Favorable, 8% Unfavorable (+81%)
Among Trump voters: 17% Favorable, 81% Unfavorable (-64%)

Michelle Obama: 51% Favorable, 40% Unfavorable (+11%)
Among Biden voters: 86% Favorable, 10% Unfavorable (+76%)
Among Trump voters: 16% Favorable, 81% Unfavorable (-65%)

Tim Scott: 37% Favorable, 26% Unfavorable (+11%)
Among Biden voters: 22% Favorable, 45% Unfavorable (-23%)
Among Trump voters: 67% Favorable, 9% Unfavorable (+58%)

Joe Biden: 49% Favorable, 43% Unfavorable (+6%)
Among Biden voters: 87% Favorable, 12% Unfavorable (+75%)
Among Trump voters: 15% Favorable, 84% Unfavorable (-69%)

Ron DeSantis: 34% Favorable, 32% Unfavorable (+2%)
Among Biden voters: 16% Favorable, 60% Unfavorable (-44%)
Among Trump voters: 68% Favorable, 11% Unfavorable (+57%)

Nikki Haley: 33% Favorable, 32% Unfavorable (+1%)
Among Biden voters: 20% Favorable, 54% Unfavorable (-34%)
Among Trump voters: 61% Favorable, 16% Unfavorable (+45%)

Joe Manchin: 29% Favorable, 32% Unfavorable (-3%)
Among Biden voters: 27% Favorable, 41% Unfavorable (-14%)
Among Trump voters: 42% Favorable, 27% Unfavorable (+15%)

Kamala Harris: 41% Favorable, 49% Unfavorable (-8%)
Among Biden voters: 78% Favorable, 17% Unfavorable (+61%)
Among Trump voters: 9% Favorable, 88% Unfavorable (-79%)

Donald Trump: 40% Favorable, 51% Unfavorable (-11%)
Among Biden voters: 13% Favorable, 84% Unfavorable (-71%)
Among Trump voters: 81% Favorable, 16% Unfavorable (+65%)


So I did the math, and here's what the favorability ratings would look like if all Biden voters and all Trump voters had opinions on a candidate, so we can un-skew the results from any effects of having more voters of a particular party having an opinion on a candidate (Ex: More Republicans know about Ron DeSantis than Democrats, so in total, his favorability rating is boosted higher) (extrapolating from the data we already have) (using an assumed sample of 52.3% Biden - 47.7% Trump):

Tim Scott: 59.2% Favorable, 40.8% Unfavorable (+18.4%)
Barack Obama: 56.3% Favorable, 43.7% Unfavorable (+12.6%)
Michelle Obama: 54.7% Favorable, 45.3% Unfavorable (+9.4%)
Joe Biden: 53.2% Favorable, 46.8% Unfavorable (+6.4%)
Ron DeSantis: 52.1% Favorable, 47.9% Unfavorable (+4.2%)
Nikki Haley: 51.9% Favorable, 48.1% Unfavorable (+3.8%)
Joe Manchin: 49.8% Favorable, 50.2% Unfavorable (-0.4%)
Kamala Harris: 47.4% Favorable, 52.6% Unfavorable (-5.2%)
Donald Trump: 46.8% Favorable, 53.2% Unfavorable (-6.4%)

It really looks like Tim Scott is a very strong candidate TBH. He's got a lot more favorability from Democrats than the average Republican. Kamala Harris, on the other hand, scores poorly with Democrats and has ended up in the negatives.

[BigSerg]

19% of African-Americans have a favorable opinion of Tim Scott (opposed to only 13% seeing Donald Trump favorably). This could make Tim Scott a potentially very dangerous candidate. After all, just chipping away a small percentage of African-Americans from the Democrats in Detroit and Philadelphia will turn the states they're in red fast.

Also, Joe Manchin's favorability rating among Trump voters is 42% favorable - 27% unfavorable, as opposed to 27% favorable - 41% unfavorable amongst Biden voters.      


Here are more breakdowns of favorability ratings:

Barack Obama: 51% Favorable, 40% Unfavorable (+11%)
  Among Biden voters: 89% Favorable, 8% Unfavorable (+81%)
  Among Trump voters: 17% Favorable, 81% Unfavorable (-64%)

Michelle Obama: 51% Favorable, 40% Unfavorable (+11%)
  Among Biden voters: 86% Favorable, 10% Unfavorable (+76%)
  Among Trump voters: 16% Favorable, 81% Unfavorable (-65%)

Tim Scott: 37% Favorable, 26% Unfavorable (+11%)
  Among Biden voters: 87% Favorable, 12% Unfavorable (+75%)
  Among Trump voters: 15% Favorable, 84% Unfavorable (-69%)

Kamala Harris: 49% Favorable, 43% Unfavorable (+6%)
  Among Biden voters: 78% Favorable, 17% Unfavorable (+61%)
  Among Trump voters: 9% Favorable, 88% Unfavorable (-79%)

Ron DeSantis: 34% Favorable, 32% Unfavorable (+2%)
  Among Biden voters: 16% Favorable, 60% Unfavorable (-44%)
  Among Trump voters: 68% Favorable, 11% Unfavorable (+57%)

Nikki Haley: 33% Favorable, 32% Unfavorable (+1%)
  Among Biden voters: 20% Favorable, 54% Unfavorable (-34%)
  Among Trump voters: 61% Favorable, 16% Unfavorable (+45%)

Joe Manchin: 29% Favorable, 32% Unfavorable (-3%)
  Among Biden voters: 27% Favorable, 41% Unfavorable (-14%)
  Among Trump voters: 42% Favorable, 27% Unfavorable (+15%)

Kamala Harris: 41% Favorable, 49% Unfavorable (-8%)
  Among Biden voters: 78% Favorable, 17% Unfavorable (+61%)
  Among Trump voters: 9% Favorable, 88% Unfavorable (-79%)

Donald Trump: 40% Favorable, 51% Unfavorable (-11%)
  Among Biden voters: 13% Favorable, 84% Unfavorable (-71%)
  Among Trump voters: 81% Favorable, 16% Unfavorable (+65%)

Wtf ¿?

Tim Scott: 37% Favorable, 26% Unfavorable (+11%)
  Among Biden voters: 87% Favorable, 12% Unfavorable (+75%)
  Among Trump voters: 15% Favorable, 84% Unfavorable (-69%)

[Biden his time]

SNIP

Fixed check again

[Mr. Morden]

On Biden vs. Harris, from eyeballing the crosstabs, it looks like the demographic groups that split the most between one and the other (both giving Biden a better grade) are white male college grads and voters under age 30.  Both are +24 points more favorable to Biden than Harris…

fav/unfav % among white male college grads:
Biden 53/43% for +10%
Harris 41/55% for -14%

fav/unfav % among age 18-29:
Biden 59/34% for +25%
Harris 44/43% for +1%

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Terrible numbers for Harris

If 2024 is a Harris vs DeSantis matchup, the GOP will easily win the popular vote

There is no feasible matchup that will result in the GOP winning the PV. Please give it up.

Besides, the Harris numbers seem... off. She was in the positive in their last poll. Like, literally nothing happened between then and now that could've significantly changed peoples' opinion of her.

And I find it hard to believe that Nikki Haley has a 20% favorable rating with Biden voters.

[Orser67]

Tim Scott seems like he could be the Kamala Harris of 2024; he probably doesn't have the depth of support necessary to win the presidential nomination, but it seems almost inevitable that he'll wind up on the VP shortlist. You could probably say the same about Haley, but I wonder if Scott is a little more adept at walking the Trump tightrope.

[Biden his time]

Tim Scott seems like he could be the Kamala Harris of 2024; he probably doesn't have the depth of support necessary to win the presidential nomination, but it seems almost inevitable that he'll wind up on the VP shortlist. You could probably say the same about Haley, but I wonder if Scott is a little more adept at walking the Trump tightrope.

I disagree with this comparison if you're speaking in terms of how unpopular they'd be (I do agree that Scott's on the VP shortlist though). See, Tim Scott doesn't inspire visceral hatred from Democrats the same way Kamala Harris does with Republicans, while he does score much more favorably in general with Biddn voters. And Tim Scott also has managed to keep very high favorability ratings even among Republicans, while that's another weak point of Kamala's (keeping favorability among her own party).

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Some liberal cucks liking Tim Scott for the sole reason that he's a Black man is completely meaningless. As should have been made clear to people on this forum last November after John James barely outperformed Trump while running the perfect campaign. The reason for this? He bled some support among white working class people and this was while he was running a campaign tailor-made to win their support, with their hero on the ticket!  

On the other hand, Tim Scott spends a lot of time talking about the traditional Republican homilies. He doesn't only talk about work. He also spends a lot of time talking about God, which is a subject that the typical working class Trump voter in Michigan, much less in Maine or New Hampshire, would prefer to never hear discussed in their presence. It is striking that this fact is not mentioned about Tim Scott - he comes off as a more old school Republican. This is a weakness more than it's a strength imo.

[Mr. Morden]

Since they keep polling many of these people every week, I'll just post updated numbers each week that I remember to do so.  Here's May 8-11:

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/zqplrjlj3n/econTabReport.pdf

Biden 51/44% for +7%
DeSantis 36/33% for +3%
Harris 46/45% for +1%
Warren 38/41% for -3%
Trump 43/51% for -8%
Cruz 37/47% for -10%

Dems only:
Biden 81/16% for +65%
Harris 78/18% for +60%
Warren 66/19% for +47%

GOP only:
Trump 77/21% for +56%
Cruz 69/20% for +49%
DeSantis 61/12% for +49%

[ultraviolet]

rip Harris. That’s too bad, I love the Kamala Harris Gifs tbh. “I’m speaking”💅

💅💅💅

[Mr. Morden]

Unfortunately, they didn’t poll Cruz or DeSantis this week, but I’ll still post the Biden, Harris, and Trump #s:

May 15-18:

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/hhr4zbf09s/econTabReport.pdf

Biden 52/41% for +11%
Harris 45/44% for +1%
Trump 42/51% for -9%

Dems only:
Biden 86/10% for +76%
Harris 78/15% for +63%

GOP only:
Trump 81/15% for +66%

Some interesting #s on the Israeli / Palestinian issue as well:

https://twitter.com/ArgoJournal/status/1395003181164371972

https://twitter.com/ArgoJournal/status/1395004140653264906

[Mr. Morden]

May 29 - June 1:

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/4876sp4niu/econTabReport.pdf

Biden 51/41% for +10%
Sanders 46/41% for +5%
Harris 45/43% for +2%
Ocasio-Cortez 35/41% for -6%
Hawley 23/32% for -9%
Cruz 35/46% for -11%
Romney 34/46% for -12%
Trump 41/53% for -12%
L. Cheney 30/43% for -13%

Dems only:
Biden 86/11% for +75%
Harris 82/13% for +69%
Sanders 76/15% for +61%
Ocasio-Cortez 64/16% for +48%

GOP only:
Trump 77/18% for +59%
Cruz 64/18% for +46%
Hawley 36/15% for +21%
Romney 23/60% for -37%
L. Cheney 19/56% for -37%

And then another fun question...

What’s responsible for the Covid-19 virus?

It was created in a laboratory and released on purpose 24%
It was created in a laboratory but was released by accident 18%
It was a natural mutation that occurred in the wild 13%
It was a natural mutation that was released from a laboratory by accident 12%
not sure 33%

Dems:
It was a natural mutation that was released from a laboratory by accident 21%
It was created in a laboratory but was released by accident 16%
It was a natural mutation that occurred in the wild 13%
It was created in a laboratory and released on purpose 12%
not sure 38%

GOP:
It was created in a laboratory and released on purpose 39%
It was created in a laboratory but was released by accident 22%
It was a natural mutation that was released from a laboratory by accident 8%
It was a natural mutation that occurred in the wild 4%
not sure 27%

[David Hume]

+20 for Gaetz amongst Republicans??!!?!?

I bet most R leaning voters don't know Gaetz at all.

[Mr. Morden]

June 13-15:

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/1oyiu6tamw/econTabReport.pdf

Biden 49/44% for +5%
Harris 42/46% for -4%
Trump 37/56% for -19%

Dems only:
Biden 91/8% for +83%
Harris 83/10% for +73%

GOP only:
Trump 85/11% for +74%

Also:

https://twitter.com/ArgoJournal/status/1405171368623329286

[Mr. Morden]

June 26-29:

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/jtpvxvlusg/econTabReport.pdf

Biden 47/46% for +1%
Harris 42/48% for -6%
Manchin 26/34% for -8%
Romney 32/46% for -16%
Trump 39/55% for -16%

Dems only:
Biden 86/10% for +76%
Harris 82/12% for +70%
Manchin 25/43% for -18%

GOP only:
Trump 75/21% for +54%
Romney 22/62% for -40%

[Mr. Morden]

I think this number bears watching:

GOP only:
Trump 75/21% for +54%

That's almost identical to the 76/21% that Echelon Insights found last week:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=452681.msg8143910#msg8143910

Is the block of self-identified Republicans disillusioned from Trump growing?