Largest swing in each election

[Nym90]

One thing I find very interesting is looking at the changes from one election to the next, specifically trying to explain why some states had such large changes. I compiled a list of the states that had the largest swing in each direction in each election; I was curious if anyone wants to take a crack at explaining the reasons for each one. In some cases of course there are obvious explanations like home states of someone on the ticket, or third party candidates.

2004
To Bush--Alabama
To Kerry--Vermont

2000
To Bush--Wyoming, Arkansas, Montana
To Gore--Maryland

1996
To Dole--Kansas, Alaska, Wyoming
To Clinton--New Jersey

1992
To Bush--Iowa
To Clinton--Arkansas, New Hampshire

1988
To Bush--District of Columbia, Tennessee
To Dukakis--Oklahoma

1984
To Reagan--Georgia, South Carolina
To Mondale--District of Columbia, North Dakota

1980
To Reagan--North Dakota
To Carter--Vermont

1976
To Ford--Alaska, Massachusetts
To Carter--Georgia, Arkansas

1972
To Nixon--Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Hawaii, Lousiana, Rhode Island
To McGovern--South Dakota, Oregon

1968
To Nixon--Vermont
To Humphrey (away from Nixon is probably more accurate)--Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana, South Carolina

1964
To Goldwater--Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana
To Johnson--Hawaii, Maine

1960
To Nixon (or away from Kennedy)--Mississippi, South Carolina
To Kennedy--Rhode Island

1956
To Eisenhower--Louisiana
To Stevenson--South Dakota

1952
To Eisenhower--Texas
To Stevenson--Alabama, Mississippi, Pennsylvania

1948
To Dewey (or away from Truman)--Alabama, Mississippi, South Carolina, Louisiana, Florida
To Truman--Oklahoma

1944
To Dewey--Arkansas
To Roosevelt--Rhode Island

1940
To Willkie--North Dakota
To Roosevelt--Maine

1936
To Landon--South Dakota
To Roosevelt--Utah

1932
To Hoover--Massachusetts
To Roosevelt--Texas, Oklahoma

1928
To Hoover--Texas
To Smith--Massachusetts, North Dakota

1924
To Coolidge--Ohio
To Davis (or away from Coolidge)--Wisconsin, North Dakota

1920
To Harding--North Dakota
To Cox--South Carolina

1916
To Hughes--South Dakota, California, New Jersey
To Wilson--Utah

1912
To Taft--Louisiana
To Wilson (or away from Taft)--South Dakota, California, Georgia

1908
To Taft--Georgia
To Bryan--Nebraska, Minnesota

1904
To Roosevelt--Nevada
To Parker--Alabama

1900
To McKinley--Utah
To Bryan--Massachusetts

1896
To McKinley--Florida
To Bryan--Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, Montana

That's as far back as Dave has Swing/Trend as a viewable option for sorting Presidential Election stats.

[Mr. Morden]

In terms of regional trends, all of the states with the biggest swings to the GOP from 1944 to 1964 were in the South.  Then you have the Wallace hiccup in 1968, followed by more swinging of the South to the GOP in 1972.

Also in each of the last three elections ('96, '00, and '04), the biggest swingers to the Dems are in the Northeast, and the biggest swingers to the GOP are in the South or West.

Also, I think smaller states are somewhat overrepresented here.  You have to go back to 1952 before you find any states that are currently more populous than New Jersey.

[Republican Michigander]

Oklahoma largest swing towards Dukakis?

Was that due to farm belt woes?

[WalterMitty]

Oklahoma largest swing towards Dukakis?

Was that due to farm belt woes?

yes and loyd bentsen.

the 1988 tennessee swing to bush is interesting.   i still dont know why reagan under-performed in tn in 84.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Didn't the whole oil glut think hurt Oklahoma's economy round about then?

[minionofmidas]

Iowa 92 is mostly correction for Iowa's weird 88 result.

[nclib]

Does anyone know why D.C. swung Republican in 1988?

[WalterMitty]

Does anyone know why D.C. swung Republican in 1988?

because reagan was extremely unpopular in the black community.

[phk]

I'm assuming that

to R it will probably be Arkansas and to D it will be Hawaii or Indiana.

[RI]

I'm assuming that

to R it will probably be Arkansas and to D it will be Hawaii or Indiana.

Hawaii (D) and Arkansas (R).

[Ebowed]

2004
To Bush--Alabama
To Kerry--Vermont

Gore actually broke 40% in Alabama, and won a few counties in the northwestern part of the state which Kerry and Obama both lost.  Presumably these areas had a pattern of whites voting Democratic which has since reversed like many other areas of the South.  On the other hand Gore underperformed slightly in Vermont partly due to Nader - and until Clinton, Vermont had a strong tradition of voting Republican which perhaps influenced the '00 result until they realized how vehemently they disagreed with the outcome of a Bush administration...

2000
To Bush--Wyoming, Arkansas, Montana
To Gore--Maryland

Arkansas, obviously, is due to the home state effect.  Gore still came within five points there and won two of the four congressional districts which makes the 08 result all the more surprising.  Wyoming and Montana presumably were reacting to the environmental policies of the Clinton administration - on top of which a small bump for Cheney in Wyoming would be expected.  Maryland and D.C. were the only states to swing Democratic at all in 2000 - this probably being partially explained by the continued moving of urban areas to the Democrats.  Most counties that swung Democratic in 2000 were densely populated, and the Baltimore/DC areas would be no exception.  Prince George's County, MD voted the most Democratic it had ever voted in 2000 - then again in 2004, and 2008.

1996
To Dole--Kansas, Alaska, Wyoming
To Clinton--New Jersey

Not many comments here except that I'm a bit surprised that Dole didn't manage to break 50% in Wyoming, though Clinton did campaign there in 1992 so he may have overperformed for a Democrat (even with Perot on the ballot, Clinton in 96 beat the subsequent results for Gore, Kerry, and Obama quite easily).  Kansas was Dole's home state; New Jersey, I'd have to look closer at.  Clinton only won it by two points in the 92 election, and huge swings towards Clinton were not unique to New Jersey in the Northeast.

1992
To Bush--Iowa
To Clinton--Arkansas, New Hampshire

NH went from R+37 in 1984, R+26 in 1988, and D+1 in 1992.
Dukakis beat Bush by just over ten points in Iowa in 1988, so I'd agree with Lewis on that one.

1984
To Reagan--Georgia, South Carolina
To Mondale--District of Columbia, North Dakota

Georgia apparently did not share the fondness it had for Jimmy Carter with Mr. Mondale.  Carter won SC quite handily in 1976, and like most Southern states Reagan's victory there four years later was hardly decisive.  I expect that the GOP swing in the South in 1984 was not limited to GA and SC (AR would be another good one, I expect).

1980
To Reagan--North Dakota
To Carter--Vermont

The best explanation I have been able to come up with for Vermont was that Anderson took votes from more people who otherwise would have voted for Reagan - people who today would consider themselves Democrats.

1976
To Ford--Alaska, Massachusetts
To Carter--Georgia, Arkansas

MA went from D+9 to D+15 from 1972 to 1976.  Obviously, being the only state that voted for the Democrats previously, in an election where the entire nation swung heavily Democratic, there was only so much room for MA to swing.

Carter performed nearly as well in Arkansas as he did in Georgia, including an impressive near-sweep of the state's counties.  They were the only states where he broke 60% (one thing I find particularly noteworthy about 1976 was the relative closeness spread across each state; similarly, Ford only broke 60% in one state, Utah).

1968
To Nixon--Vermont
To Humphrey (away from Nixon is probably more accurate)--Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana, South Carolina

1964 was a complete fluke as far as states like Vermont, New Hampshire, etc. are concerned.  Given their partisan affiliations of the time, gigantic swings to Nixon are not unexpected.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Very interesting.

[Rob]

1936
To Roosevelt--Utah

This is pretty impressive, given that the LDS leadership was quietly encouraging its members to vote against the "socialist" FDR.

[Nym90]

1936
To Roosevelt--Utah

This is pretty impressive, given that the LDS leadership was quietly encouraging its members to vote against the "socialist" FDR.

Yeah, he won it by nearly 40 points after having won it by "only" 15 in 1932. Maybe the Mormons had a pro-incumbent bias for some reason.

[Antonio the Sixth]

1936
To Roosevelt--Utah

This is pretty impressive, given that the LDS leadership was quietly encouraging its members to vote against the "socialist" FDR.

Yeah, he won it by nearly 40 points after having won it by "only" 15 in 1932. Maybe the Mormons had a pro-incumbent bias for some reason.

Considering that Mondale did better here in 1984 than Carter in 1980, I would exclude this possibility.

[Ebowed]

Considering that Mondale did better here in 1984 than Carter in 1980, I would exclude this possibility.

Reagan also improved upon his previous performance in Utah in 1984, technically, so the Democratic swing there could be wholly attributed to Anderson's candidacy.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Considering that Mondale did better here in 1984 than Carter in 1980, I would exclude this possibility.

Reagan also improved upon his previous performance in Utah in 1984, technically, so the Democratic swing there could be wholly attributed to Anderson's candidacy.

Maybe, but we can not speak about a "pro incumbent trend", since the Utah trend was very solidly democrat.

[Nym90]

1936
To Roosevelt--Utah

This is pretty impressive, given that the LDS leadership was quietly encouraging its members to vote against the "socialist" FDR.

Yeah, he won it by nearly 40 points after having won it by "only" 15 in 1932. Maybe the Mormons had a pro-incumbent bias for some reason.

Considering that Mondale did better here in 1984 than Carter in 1980, I would exclude this possibility.

Well the swings of Mormons could have changed in the 50 years in-between, as well.....

[Ebowed]

2004
To Bush--Alabama
To Kerry--Vermont

Gore actually broke 40% in Alabama, and won a few counties in the northwestern part of the state which Kerry and Obama both lost.  Presumably these areas had a pattern of whites voting Democratic which has since reversed like many other areas of the South.

These counties were Colbert, Lawrence, and Jackson (the final one being in the northeastern part of the state rather than the northwest).  I found Jackson the most interesting, largely because the swing from 2000 to 2008 is rather incredible.

2000:
Gore - 50.63%
Bush - 47.33%

2004:
Bush - 56.76% [this being the first time since 1972 that the GOP carried the county]
Kerry - 42.49%

2008:
McCain - 67.47%
Obama - 30.54%

The county is 92% white and much of it is located in the Appalachian mountains.  According to Wikipedia, the county has a Dixiecrat tradition and its local government has no elected Republicans.

In 2004, Bush won the other two Gore counties by 10+ margins.  In 2008, McCain won them by 20+.

[Landslide Lyndon]

2004
To Bush--Alabama
To Kerry--Vermont

Gore actually broke 40% in Alabama, and won a few counties in the northwestern part of the state which Kerry and Obama both lost.  Presumably these areas had a pattern of whites voting Democratic which has since reversed like many other areas of the South.

These counties were Colbert, Lawrence, and Jackson (the final one being in the northeastern part of the state rather than the northwest).  I found Jackson the most interesting, largely because the swing from 2000 to 2008 is rather incredible.

2000:
Gore - 50.63%
Bush - 47.33%

2004:
Bush - 56.76% [this being the first time since 1972 that the GOP carried the county]
Kerry - 42.49%

2008:
McCain - 67.47%
Obama - 30.54%

The county is 92% white and much of it is located in the Appalachian mountains.  According to Wikipedia, the county has a Dixiecrat tradition and its local government has no elected Republicans.

In 2004, Bush won the other two Gore counties by 10+ margins.  In 2008, McCain won them by 20+.

It's pretty clear that the folks in these counties didn't like Obama's tax plan.

[J. J.]

I'm wondering about the national swing.

[Nym90]

I'm wondering about the national swing.

The largest national swing? That was 1932, with the largest towards the GOP being 1920.

[DS0816]

Election 1976: If you look at the margins that topped at 5 points (credit 5.2, 5.5—long as it's not 6 and above), more than ten states and 178 electoral votes had the potential of being added to Jimmy Carter[/color]'s win column over Gerald Ford (including Ford's home state of Michigan!).

[nclib]

1968
To Nixon--Vermont
To Humphrey (away from Nixon is probably more accurate)--Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana, South Carolina

1948
To Dewey (or away from Truman)--Alabama, Mississippi, South Carolina, Louisiana, Florida
To Truman--Oklahoma

raw Humphrey gain (or smallest loss): District of Columbia, Minnesota, Mississippi, South Carolina, Massachusetts, Maine

raw Dewey gain: Texas, Utah, Delaware, New Hampshire, Vermont

[RS.Ngai]

What swings, are we wondering, will see to expect in 2012?

Arizona and Montana to swing enough to a Democratic pickup?
New Mexico and Nevada to become safe for the Democrats?
Missouri and West Virginia to swing more Republican?
The Republicans winning over 75% of the Southern White Vote?
Indiana to become a battleground state?
Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan to steer away from Democrats and vote Republican?
Georgia to go purple again instead of a guaranteed Republican Red?
Hawaii to become as Democratic as the District of Columbia?
North Dakota to become a battleground state?

The possiblities are endless...And to the starter of the thread, nice information. Vermont had a Democratic swing in 1980? It was Solid Republican back then.