County Flips

[Rob]

In an attempt to better understand the shifts in American voting patterns over the past few decades, I decided to look at the county results for several elections: 1972, 1984, 1988, and 2004. Specifically, I was interested in counties that voted Democratic in GOP landslides of years past, yet voted against the Democrat in 2004's close election. I made maps showing the shifts...

1972 (blue counties voted for McGovern and Bush)

1984 (blue counties voted for Mondale and Bush)

I did something a bit different for 1988, which I think is more interesting than the previous two elections. Blue counties are still GOP pickups, but I also included counties that voted HW Bush/Kerry in red.

Map

The last "Massachusetts liberal" to run against a Bush clearly appealed to a different constituency. Note that many rural counties backing Dukakis went for Bush in 2004; Oklahoma, Texas, Iowa, and West Virginia are particularly depressing for Democrats. On the bright side, the Dems have made strong inroads in the Southwest and the Northeast.

What's the point of it all? I don't know- this was probably blazingly obvious. But if you ever need to know which counties voted for both McGovern and GWB in a pinch, here you have it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Nice

On the McGovern map, most counties seem to be agricultural counties in SD and MN; which makes sense I guess.
The Western ones are largely logging or ex-logging, right?

A very high proportion of counties on map two are (or were) mining areas.
An interesting exception to the rural rule is Anoka county; which is an affluent blue collar suburban area.

[Rob]

Nice

Thanks.

The Western ones are largely logging or ex-logging, right?

I believe so, yes.

A very high proportion of counties on map two are (or were) mining areas.

I suppose all of this reflects the rise of social issues in the political debate. A prime example is Greene, Pennsylvania; its majority for Bush in 2004 (albeit a razor-thin one) was only the fourth Republican victory in history (the others being 1920, 1928, and 1972 iirc).

[Cubby]

Nice

On the McGovern map, most counties seem to be agricultural counties in SD and MN; which makes sense I guess.
The Western ones are largely logging or ex-logging, right?

A very high proportion of counties on map two are (or were) mining areas.
An interesting exception to the rural rule is Anoka county; which is an affluent blue collar suburban area.

The main reason McGovern won those Western Minnesota counties was because he was from nearby South Dakota. The "native son" effect usually doesn't apply to neighboring states but it must have had an effect here.

Anoka County is ex-urban, so in 1972 it was still much more rural than it is today:

1970: 155,000 people
2004: 320,000 people

Mondale seems to have done better in the South than McGovern did. This reflects the overall results, in which Mondale had a higher percent of the national vote and won more counties than McGovern did. In 1972, Nixon got a larger percentage of the black vote, since there were older blacks who still saw the Democrats as the party of segregation.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Anoka County is ex-urban, so in 1972 it was still much more rural than it is today:

1970: 155,000 people
2004: 320,000 people

I've always thought of exurban as being on the outer edge of a metropolitan area; in the case of Minneapolis-St Paul, that would be Isanti and Chisago counties, rather than Anoka (largely a mix of middle and outer suburbs), sort of rural/urban fringe rather than genuine suburbia.

Regardless, it's certainly affluent (median HH income $57,754) and blue collar (only 32% of it's workforce are employed in professional/managerial occupations (only slightly below national average, but a hell of a lot less than most suburban counties) while an impressive 20% were (last census) employed in manufacturing. Less than the national average had degrees as well).

[muon2]

Anoka County is ex-urban, so in 1972 it was still much more rural than it is today:

1970: 155,000 people
2004: 320,000 people

I've always thought of exurban as being on the outer edge of a metropolitan area; in the case of Minneapolis-St Paul, that would be Isanti and Chisago counties, rather than Anoka (largely a mix of middle and outer suburbs), sort of rural/urban fringe rather than genuine suburbia.

Regardless, it's certainly affluent (median HH income $57,754) and blue collar (only 32% of it's workforce are employed in professional/managerial occupations (only slightly below national average, but a hell of a lot less than most suburban counties) while an impressive 20% were (last census) employed in manufacturing. Less than the national average had degrees as well).

In 1972 the area along the Mississippi River including Anoka, Coon Rapids, Fridley, and Columbia Heights was primarily suburban, but a lot of old areas like inner suburbs with working class neighborhoods. Their high schools were in my conference, so we saw the towns a lot then. Pretty much everything else was rural with small towns in Anoka Co. Blaine just began its boom in the 70's, and added a new HS in the conference before I graduated in 1975. It was very much what we think of today as suburbia.

[Cubby]

Anoka County is ex-urban, so in 1972 it was still much more rural than it is today:

1970: 155,000 people
2004: 320,000 people

I've always thought of exurban as being on the outer edge of a metropolitan area; in the case of Minneapolis-St Paul, that would be Isanti and Chisago counties, rather than Anoka (largely a mix of middle and outer suburbs), sort of rural/urban fringe rather than genuine suburbia.

Regardless, it's certainly affluent (median HH income $57,754) and blue collar (only 32% of it's workforce are employed in professional/managerial occupations (only slightly below national average, but a hell of a lot less than most suburban counties) while an impressive 20% were (last census) employed in manufacturing. Less than the national average had degrees as well).

In 1972 the area along the Mississippi River including Anoka, Coon Rapids, Fridley, and Columbia Heights was primarily suburban, but a lot of old areas like inner suburbs with working class neighborhoods. Their high schools were in my conference, so we saw the towns a lot then. Pretty much everything else was rural with small towns in Anoka Co. Blaine just began its boom in the 70's, and added a new HS in the conference before I graduated in 1975. It was very much what we think of today as suburbia.

Yes perhaps Suburban was a better way to describe it. In 1972 it was on the outer fringe of the Twin Cities metro area, but today its more like an inner suburb compared to some of its adjacent counties.

[jokerman]

I never noticed Dukakis' result in Shelby County before.  Mondale only lost there by about 4k votes and Clinton won with 38k in '92, but Dukakis lost by 8k.

Can anyone explain that?

[nclib]

I never noticed Dukakis' result in Shelby County before.  Mondale only lost there by about 4k votes and Clinton won with 38k in '92, but Dukakis lost by 8k.

Can anyone explain that?

Shelby County, Tennessee?

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

I never noticed Dukakis' result in Shelby County before.  Mondale only lost there by about 4k votes and Clinton won with 38k in '92, but Dukakis lost by 8k.

Can anyone explain that?

These strange voting patterns are a result of three factors

1. "closeness" of the candidate both geographically and ideology.  Clinton was from across the river, Dukakis might as well been from another planet.

2. The partisan wave of whites transitioning from overwhelmingly Democratic to overwhelmingly Republican

3. The demographic wave of a county transitioning from a white to a black majority

In the '84 election, there were still enough whites who identified as Democrats to make even a Republican landslide close.  By '88, the percentage of whites in the county was still very high but Democratic identification had completely collapsed.

In 1992, this nice southern christian boy from across the river was the Democratic nominee and charmed whites and blacks alike.  The black numbers were growing though.  I don't have 1990 census figures at hand but the trends have been roughly the same since the late 80's.  In 2000, the white percentage in Shelby Co. was 47.3%.  By 2005, it was 43.6% - Shelby County lost 37,000 whites in just 5 years.

[Rob]

I did 1968, even though it doesn't meet the criteria I initially set out to look for. As you might expect, red counties voted for Nixon/Kerry and blue counties voted for Humphrey/Bush. With the Wallace factor, however, I had to introduce new colors: pink counties voted for Wallace/Kerry, while light blue counties voted for Wallace/Bush.

One unusual thing I noted: every Humphrey county in Arizona voted for Bush, while every Kerry county had voted for Nixon.

[nclib]

One unusual thing I noted: every Humphrey county in Arizona voted for Bush, while every Kerry county had voted for Nixon.

The map doesn't indicate that.

[Rob]

The map doesn't indicate that.

1968:



2004:

[nclib]

You're right--I misread your statement.

[Rob]

No problem.