Change in conventional wisdom?

[John Forbes Kerrygold 🧈]

I feel like the going theory about the 2022 midterms had been, until very recently, that the map looked pretty favorable to Democrats, despite being the governing party. In the last couple of days, it seems like everything has become very doom-and-gloom, with lots of talk about the Dems having a difficult time and an uphill battle, etc. Why is this? Is it just regression to the mean, the desire for a horserace, were the initial favorable takes wrong?

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

I feel like the going theory about the 2022 midterms had been, until very recently, that the map looked pretty favorable to Democrats, despite being the governing party. In the last couple of days, it seems like everything has become very doom-and-gloom, with lots of talk about the Dems having a difficult time and an uphill battle, etc. Why is this? Is it just regression to the mean, the desire for a horserace, were the initial favorable takes wrong?

People take one race (TX-6) and think it'll apply to everywhere, even when it's a low-turnout election barely 100 days into the term. Perhaps if other specials showed a similar pattern we could get worried, but everyone tries to pretend one race is going to be an indicator for everything.

also, this belongs in the main CE board.

[John Forbes Kerrygold 🧈]

I feel like the going theory about the 2022 midterms had been, until very recently, that the map looked pretty favorable to Democrats, despite being the governing party. In the last couple of days, it seems like everything has become very doom-and-gloom, with lots of talk about the Dems having a difficult time and an uphill battle, etc. Why is this? Is it just regression to the mean, the desire for a horserace, were the initial favorable takes wrong?

People take one race (TX-6) and think it'll apply to everywhere, even when it's a low-turnout election barely 100 days into the term. Perhaps if other specials showed a similar pattern we could get worried, but everyone tries to pretend one race is going to be an indicator for everything.

also, this belongs in the main CE board.

Oops, my mistake. Is this something a mod can move or should I just recreate this over there?

[MT Treasurer]

The initial favorable takes (which were blatantly/ridiculously exaggerating how "disengaged" or "low-propensity" the R base is & how favorable the Senate map is for Democrats & how much actual swing voters will care about the actions of the Trump administration in 2022 & how much this administration will defy or overcome cyclical dynamics) were always wishful thinking, regardless of any result of any special election (which I tend to agree shouldn’t be overinterpreted), be it in TX or elsewhere.

[Lognog]

The house retirements worry me a hundred times more than a congressional primary in April

[Xing]

People were too optimistic about the odds of 2022 being a "2002 redux", and while it's likely to be a bad year for Democrats, Atlas is now assuming that for the wrong reasons, since it's a given that people will extrapolate the results of a single election to create a narrative (especially one they want to be true.) While 2022 is one thing, what is ridiculous is how Texas is now the new state that is chronically "not there yet", not in 2024, not in 2028, etc. because of the TX-06 results. I have a feeling that the takes about Texas will age as well as the takes about Georgia.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Atlas overreacted to a special election result. The change was particularly dramatic because they were previously overreacting to polls instead, and this is really absurd after what happened in 2020.

[Non Swing Voter]

I still think the fundamentals are good for Dems retaining the house.

1) midterms = educated electorate

2) trump not on the ballot to rev up his base

3) redistricting not as favorable for GOP as it was in 2010

4) Even if GOP states gained in reapportionment, Dem areas are growing within most states while GOP (i.e., rural) areas are shrinking.  So I think reapportionment might actually help Dems.

5) Biden isn't unpopular

6) GOP did well in 2020 in the House, meaning it won a lot of the very close races.  That means there's a lot of low hanging fruit this time for Dems in places like Orange County, etc. 

[lfromnj]

I still think the fundamentals are good for Dems retaining the house.


3) redistricting not as favorable for GOP as it was in 2010

You don't compare redistricting to 2010. You compare it to the current maps.

[Skill and Chance]

Regression to the mean.  Expected outcome has always been a mildly Republican year, enough that the House is a near certain flip, but the Senate still could go either way.

[Lognog]

I still think the fundamentals are good for Dems retaining the house.

1) midterms = educated electorate

2) trump not on the ballot to rev up his base

3) redistricting not as favorable for GOP as it was in 2010

4) Even if GOP states gained in reapportionment, Dem areas are growing within most states while GOP (i.e., rural) areas are shrinking.  So I think reapportionment might actually help Dems.

5) Biden isn't unpopular

6) GOP did well in 2020 in the House, meaning it won a lot of the very close races.  That means there's a lot of low hanging fruit this time for Dems in places like Orange County, etc. 

1. Yes, the Democrats have made major gains with college educated voters, however the Main based of the party is still working class minorities and younger people. The Democrats won't have turn out as low as 2010 and 2014 for this reason, but it won't be nearly enough to keep the house

2. Trump will be constantly getting out the vote. And, still, the GOP turned out plenty in 2010 with no Trump

3. Again, like number 1. Yes, it won't be as bad as 2010; The democrats will not lose 65 seats. But, they only need to lose a handful to lose the house. The GOP will have control over huge states to draw the maps on like Texas, Florida, and North Carolina. The maps in those states will be killer for the dems.

4. This point is true, but its pretty marginal overall

5. That's true but A. we will see if that holds B. we'll see how well he gets out the base in the Midterms.

6. Aside from California. The GOP can easily sure up seats that were too close for comfort in many states. For instance, the Texas GOP has a lot of seats that could be lost in their current form. They will be able to shore up all of them most likely

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The R retirements came right when Covid cases started going down, Portman, Blunt, all retired in January, Covid cases have dictated the course of the Election

It was easy to criticize Trump when Ds were the opposition party, now that they are the buracracy, they are all in control and Covid cases are three the roof.

Everywhere you go, they say do to Covid restrictions we are still in lockdown mode

Dorms, Universities, bars are still closed and it's curbside pickup at restaurants, no dining, in those areas we still are in lockdown mode

By the way many libraries and shelters are still closed eventhough everything else is open, it was great news in Jan after Xmas that Covid cases were going down

Despite vaccinations we are still in mask and people on buses or stores are so rude if they think you aren't socially distancing

Many people got online prepaid cards instead of Banks because you get paid early and banks won't give you a credit card

D's will perform in Biden Approvals which are 51/49

D's aren't gonna lose Northern seats WI, PA, NH

They are gonna lose S like GA, NC and FL in the Senate and TX and FL seats in the H, just like in 2010

If Speaker McCarthy is elected he will call for an Independent Counsel on Hunter, an R plus 10 and Senate 51/49 D is like split we had in 2010/2018

D's being in the Minority isn't pernament, they can win H in 2026 in a Harris Midterm if the Special counsel finds wrongdoing in Hunter, D's can win it back..

winning 3 Elections in a row it's very hard anyways


WE ARE STILL AFTER ALL THE STIMULUS STILL IN A PANDEMIC

[OSR stands with Israel]

I still think the fundamentals are good for Dems retaining the house.

1) midterms = educated electorate

2) trump not on the ballot to rev up his base

3) redistricting not as favorable for GOP as it was in 2010

4) Even if GOP states gained in reapportionment, Dem areas are growing within most states while GOP (i.e., rural) areas are shrinking.  So I think reapportionment might actually help Dems.

5) Biden isn't unpopular

6) GOP did well in 2020 in the House, meaning it won a lot of the very close races.  That means there's a lot of low hanging fruit this time for Dems in places like Orange County, etc. 

Republicans just need 5 seats to gain control of the house meaning democrats can have a good night and still lose the house .

[MT Treasurer]

Regression to the mean.  Expected outcome has always been a mildly Republican year, enough that the House is a near certain flip, but the Senate still could go either way.

It’s strongly debatable whether the Senate could go "either way" in a mildly Republican year if D.C. and PR aren’t added. "Either way" to me implies a 50/50 situation, which probably would require a neutral year rather than a "mildly Republican" one given the partisan leans of the battleground states.

[Skill and Chance]

Regression to the mean.  Expected outcome has always been a mildly Republican year, enough that the House is a near certain flip, but the Senate still could go either way.

It’s strongly debatable whether the Senate could go "either way" in a mildly Republican year if D.C. and PR aren’t added. "Either way" to me implies a 50/50 situation, which probably would require a neutral year rather than a "mildly Republican" one given the partisan leans of the battleground states.

That's fair, but one is probably 60/40 R and the other is 90/10 R.

[MT Treasurer]

Regression to the mean.  Expected outcome has always been a mildly Republican year, enough that the House is a near certain flip, but the Senate still could go either way.

It’s strongly debatable whether the Senate could go "either way" in a mildly Republican year if D.C. and PR aren’t added. "Either way" to me implies a 50/50 situation, which probably would require a neutral year rather than a "mildly Republican" one given the partisan leans of the battleground states.

That's fair, but one is probably 60/40 R and the other is 90/10 R.

How would you rank the seats from most likely to least to go R, out of curiosity? Mine is FL>WI>NC>PA>AZ>NH>NV>GA.

[Devils30]

Regression to the mean.  Expected outcome has always been a mildly Republican year, enough that the House is a near certain flip, but the Senate still could go either way.

It’s strongly debatable whether the Senate could go "either way" in a mildly Republican year if D.C. and PR aren’t added. "Either way" to me implies a 50/50 situation, which probably would require a neutral year rather than a "mildly Republican" one given the partisan leans of the battleground states.

That's fair, but one is probably 60/40 R and the other is 90/10 R.

How would you rank the seats from most likely to least to go R, out of curiosity? Mine is FL>WI>NC>PA>AZ>NH>NV>GA.

I'd put WI ahead of NC for Dems in 2022. Johnson is problematic with all of his statements and WWC dropoff in a midterm might hurt the Rs more.

[Young Conservative]

I think it's more than just the special election results. News coverage seems to have started talking about inflation, gas prices, and other stuff. Public opinion feels like its begun the turn. republicans i have spoken to feel energized by texas and tim scott's speech + just angry at biden.

[Roll Roons]

Regression to the mean.  Expected outcome has always been a mildly Republican year, enough that the House is a near certain flip, but the Senate still could go either way.

It’s strongly debatable whether the Senate could go "either way" in a mildly Republican year if D.C. and PR aren’t added. "Either way" to me implies a 50/50 situation, which probably would require a neutral year rather than a "mildly Republican" one given the partisan leans of the battleground states.

That's fair, but one is probably 60/40 R and the other is 90/10 R.

How would you rank the seats from most likely to least to go R, out of curiosity? Mine is FL>WI>NC>PA>AZ>NH>NV>GA.

I'd put WI ahead of NC for Dems in 2022. Johnson is problematic with all of his statements and WWC dropoff in a midterm might hurt the Rs more.

I agree. Also, the fact is that Democrats have been able to win federal statewide elections in Wisconsin, but with the exception of 2008, have consistently fallen short in North Carolina.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs just remember Biden inherited the 30T deficit and the Pandemic, just like Obama inherited the Bush W Recession.

The average loss of seats for the inparty is 23 and it's very difficult to win 3 Elections in a row 2086/208/2010 for D's and 2014/2016/2018 for Rs


Silver lining to an R takeover of the H
A divided Congress Rs control of H and DS looks probable and an investation into Hunter Biden will prompt Harris to be the nominee in 2024 she leads DeSantis by 12

[Pericles]

Nothing was changed, the House has always been Likely R.

[ElectionsGuy]

The original "conventional wisdom" was always complete crap. The idea that most Dem voters are highly engaged while most Republicans are just low engagement Trump cultists, is not only inaccurate, it's provably false. Look at cable news ratings right now, for instance. Look at the ratings for Biden's address. Now it's just that some people got a dose of reality.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

It was always going to be an r wave year. TX 06 doesn't add to or take away from that

[Gracile]

The conventional wisdom has always been that the out-party will pick up seat in the House (in this case the GOP picking up the chamber), and nothing has significantly altered that.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why are we so obsessed with ratings and polls all Biden needs is 278 not 413 EC votes and in a Pandemic he isn't gonna have 60% approvals to create a huge blue wave just like Trump had mediocre ratings during a Pandemic.

This was bound to happen if Biden didn't when he got into office Eradicate Covid, all Politicians tell you what you want to hear and both Trump and Biden said they would get rid of Covid and we are stuck with

The best thing to do is get a hobby or something not just be obsessed with polling,no Politician are perfect