Franklin and Marshall College: Casey(D) leading by 5 points against Santorum(R)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

New Poll: Pennsylvania Senator by Keystone Poll on 2006-08-21

Summary: D: 44%, R: 39%, U: 13%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Sorry for any ignorance here, but who are Franklin & Marshall?

EDIT: Uni poll

Oh and could we all ignore the usual theatrics that accompany any poll or news item for this race? Thanks.

[Keystone Phil]

This race is clearly within six points. I hope the remaining partisan hacks realize this.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Santorum has not lead at anytime and his approval ratings are still at 39%. I wouldn't get too exited until he gets his approvals up.

[Kevin]

Santorum might win , I thought I'd never see the day.

[Keystone Phil]

Santorum has not lead at anytime and his approval ratings are still at 39%. I wouldn't get too exited until he gets his approvals up.

I love how you don't care that four polls show this race within six points but you harp on the one poll showing his approval rating at 39%.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I love to see that you get excited about polls and Santorum hasn't lead in any poll thus far.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Looking at the polls entered into the Atlas thing, it seems as though the last poll by this outfit had the following numbers:

D 47%, R 41%

[Sam Spade]

Look folks.  The last 5-6 polls have all had Casey +5%-8%.  Therefore, this is the probable answer to where the race lies at this moment., considering that Pennsylvania is not one of these states that poll funny.

Depending on the poll, I would say there are 15% of undecideds (including possible leaners), with about 7%-10% of those being "hard undecideds", roughly.

The race is still young.  Santorum still has quite a lot to overcome.  And there you have it.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This race is clearly within six points. I hope the remaining partisan hacks realize this.

It might be, but I'm not going to believe what this crap uni polls says.

Also note Al's post above. That's a bit of a strange shift, don't you think?

[ATFFL]

The last poll was done under the "Keystone Poll" banner.  Might have a slightly different methodology vis-a-vis undecideds.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I remember Keystone Poll from 2004. It was absolutely horrible.

[Jake]

This race is clearly within six points. I hope the remaining partisan hacks realize this.

It might be, but I'm not going to believe what this crap uni polls says.

Also note Al's post above. That's a bit of a strange shift, don't you think?

Five polls have the race from 5-8% difference. Not one poll. No poll conducted in the last month shows the race as any different from 5-8% difference.

[Keystone Phil]

I love to see that you get excited about polls and Santorum hasn't lead in any poll thus far.

Uh, when he closes a huge gap, anyone who supports him should be excited.

It might be, but I'm not going to believe what this crap uni polls says.

Aren't you a fan of Quinnipiac? They had it at six points, too.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Not really.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This race is clearly within six points. I hope the remaining partisan hacks realize this.

It might be, but I'm not going to believe what this crap uni polls says.

Also note Al's post above. That's a bit of a strange shift, don't you think?

Five polls have the race from 5-8% difference. Not one poll. No poll conducted in the last month shows the race as any different from 5-8% difference.

I never said it wasn't. I'm just saying this poll is crap. I just looked at their 2004 polling and that was crap too.

[© tweed]

Aren't you a fan of Quinnipiac? They had it at six points, too.

Vorlon said in 2004 that Quinnipiac is the only reputable uni poll.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Anyway, even if you want to argue this uni poll that has previous shown bad result is reliable, note that Santorum is still under 40. That's never good for an incumbent. If say, DeWine were polling at a similar number, it'd be considered a disaster.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Like Hair said he didn't close the gap in this poll this same poll had it a six point raise the last time they polled. He just closed the gap in the other polls.

[Jake]

The last time they polled they did it under a different system and they did it in May.

For full disclosure (and for those who can't read the poll section for PA):

Rasmussen:
D - 56 R - 33   D+23 May 22
D - 52 R - 37   D+15 Jun 19
D - 50 R - 39   D+11 July 26
D - 48 R - 40   D+8   Aug 21

Q Uni Poll:
D - 49 R - 36   D+13 May 8
D - 52 R - 34   D+18 Jun 19
D - 48 R - 42   D+6   Aug 13

SV:
D - 49 R - 41   D+8   May 7
D - 49 R - 40   D+9   Jun 11
D - 50 R - 40   D+10 July 16
D - 47 R - 41   D+6   Aug 13

Those three are the only ones which have monthly polled PA since May. Muhlenberg and Franklin and Marshall have run August polls, but none before that this summer.

Here's the poll section for PA.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Just to make the pattern a little clearer; Rasmussen's poll before Casey on 56% had him on 51%.

Does anyone know is SV pushes leaners hard?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The facts you stated was that Casey came back from a huge deficit from the summer, well Quinnipiac and SV and the other polls you had was done on larger samples, and this poll was done on registered likely to vote. And that is the difference right now. So, the poll still remains the same as before.

[Keystone Phil]

Aren't you a fan of Quinnipiac? They had it at six points, too.

Vorlon said in 2004 that Quinnipiac is the only reputable uni poll.

And my point was that they show the same thing as this uni poll.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Aren't you a fan of Quinnipiac? They had it at six points, too.

Vorlon said in 2004 that Quinnipiac is the only reputable uni poll.

And my point was that they show the same thing as this uni poll.

Sheer luck. Zogby Interactive polls often mirror real polls. That doesn't mean they're worth anything.

[Keystone Phil]

Aren't you a fan of Quinnipiac? They had it at six points, too.

Vorlon said in 2004 that Quinnipiac is the only reputable uni poll.

And my point was that they show the same thing as this uni poll.

Sheer luck.

Wow, you are really pathetic.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well no, actually they don't show the same thing... the lead is similer, but the number of undecideds is significantly less in the one...