Stuart Rothenberg: don't get carried away with the new PA and VA numbers

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com/2006/08/pennsylvania-senate-virginia-senate.html

[Keystone Phil]

The "fundamental dynamics" in PA are being altered. We now see that the speaking/debating part of the race is being highlighted. Santorum and Casey will now take part in high profiled debates (one being on national television on a big political weekend) and we can all agree (with the exception of the political geniuses from New York and Illinois) that Santorum is favored. We also have seen the campaign shift to campaign advertising. Santorum is on TV while Casey is struggling to get on the air. Santorum will stay on TV through Election day while we don't even know when Casey is going to go up. This race is different now.

[MarkWarner08]

The "fundamental dynamics" in PA are being altered. We now see that the speaking/debating part of the race is being highlighted. Santorum and Casey will now take part in high profiled debates (one being on national television on a big political weekend) and we can all agree (with the exception of the political geniuses from New York and Illinois) that Santorum is favored. We also have seen the campaign shift to campaign advertising. Santorum is on TV while Casey is struggling to get on the air. Santorum will stay on TV through Election day while we don't even know when Casey is going to go up. This race is different now.

Santorum's blog says Casey may be broke. Is that true? If he hasn't run TV ads yet, where did all his money go?

[Eraserhead]

The "fundamental dynamics" in PA are being altered. We now see that the speaking/debating part of the race is being highlighted. Santorum and Casey will now take part in high profiled debates (one being on national television on a big political weekend) and we can all agree (with the exception of the political geniuses from New York and Illinois) that Santorum is favored. We also have seen the campaign shift to campaign advertising. Santorum is on TV while Casey is struggling to get on the air. Santorum will stay on TV through Election day while we don't even know when Casey is going to go up. This race is different now.

I like how you only attack their thoughts on the PA race but not the VA race. You are even more partisan then me.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I wouldn't be so sure that the race changed, Santorum approvals are still are pretty low. Until he gets his approvals above 45 percent like the ad says, I think he will continue to lose.

[Wakie]

The Republican Party ... buying election since 1864.

[Jake]

I like how you only attack their thoughts on the PA race but not the VA race. You are even more partisan then me.

The supposed reason for Webb's comeback in Virginia is a verbal gaffe by his opponent. Santorum's reason for his comeback is actually campaigning and running good ads around the state. Webb simply doesn't have the funds to do that yet.

[Keystone Phil]

I like how you only attack their thoughts on the PA race but not the VA race. You are even more partisan then me.

So because I am not interested in the VA race I am a hack?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If Casey hasn't been running ads yet though, that's NOT a good thing for Santorum fans. If down by 6 is the best he can muster with a media blackout for his opponent, things will not be getting too good once Casey starts running ads. And the DSCC will help him out if his funds run too low.

I'm not worried about the debates. There's no way Casey can be worse than Bush was in the first debate, and he still won after that disaster.

[Nym90]

If Casey hasn't been running ads yet though, that's NOT a good thing for Santorum fans. If down by 6 is the best he can muster with a media blackout for his opponent, things will not be getting too good once Casey starts running ads. And the DSCC will help him out if his funds run too low.

I'm not worried about the debates. There's no way Casey can be worse than Bush was in the first debate, and he still won after that disaster.

Exactly. There is basically a 45-47% anti-Santorum vote that Casey is guaranteed to get simply because he's not Santorum. He only has to campaign and advertise for that last few percent.

[Keystone Phil]

If Casey hasn't been running ads yet though, that's NOT a good thing for Santorum fans. If down by 6 is the best he can muster with a media blackout for his opponent, things will not be getting too good once Casey starts running ads. And the DSCC will help him out if his funds run too low.

I'm not worried about the debates. There's no way Casey can be worse than Bush was in the first debate, and he still won after that disaster.

Casey's ads are boring and yes, he can be a disaster in the debates. The man puts people to sleep.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If Casey hasn't been running ads yet though, that's NOT a good thing for Santorum fans. If down by 6 is the best he can muster with a media blackout for his opponent, things will not be getting too good once Casey starts running ads. And the DSCC will help him out if his funds run too low.

I'm not worried about the debates. There's no way Casey can be worse than Bush was in the first debate, and he still won after that disaster.

Casey's ads are boring and yes, he can be a disaster in the debates. The man puts people to sleep.

Remember Bush in the first debate? If someone can win after that debate, it really underscores the fact that debates usually don't change peoples' minds (which research has proven).

Also how many people are going to even watch the debates? It won't even be near a majority of voters.

[Jake]

If Casey hasn't been running ads yet though, that's NOT a good thing for Santorum fans. If down by 6 is the best he can muster with a media
blackout for his opponent,

Not the case. He's closed from 14 points down, to ten points down, to six points down in two months based on advertising. There's no evidence he's peaked.

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Along with Virginia, Ohio, Tennessee, Missouri, etc, etc, etc.

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There is a way. You've never seen either speak in person so you don't know how vast of a difference there is.

[Keystone Phil]

You've never seen either speak in person so you don't know how vast of a difference there is.

Don't even bother anymore. He is ignorant. Even Flyers is on our side when it comes to Casey's speaking/debating skills.

[ATFFL]

If Casey hasn't been running ads yet though, that's NOT a good thing for Santorum fans. If down by 6 is the best he can muster with a media blackout for his opponent, things will not be getting too good once Casey starts running ads. And the DSCC will help him out if his funds run too low.

I'm not worried about the debates. There's no way Casey can be worse than Bush was in the first debate, and he still won after that disaster.

Casey's ads are boring and yes, he can be a disaster in the debates. The man puts people to sleep.

Then he can count on the insomiac votes, eh?