Census Population Estimates 2020-29

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Big descrepancies:

The Census Bureau said Washington (state) only grew by 45.000, while Washington state said they grew by 100.000 last year.

Same with Oregon: +15.000 (state, or University of Portland), -16.000 (Census Bureau)

Explanantions?

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

The new abortion restrictions in the US could lead to higher birth rates again this year.

Also, some couples might have delayed kids during Covid and are now "getting serious".

Births could reach 3.7-3.9 million this year.

Weekly death registrations by the CDC suggest that deaths were falling again last year to 3.28 million and will drop further this year, because last Jan.-Apr. deaths were very high, but not this year, suggesting just 3.0-3.2 million deaths this year.

The US will therefore grow by around 0.7 million this year just by natural increase alone, after just 0.1-0.3 million during the Covid years.

Legal immigration will add another 1.3 million or so this year, for a total of 2 million growth (+0.6%) - while there will be another 0.5 million illegals. But nobody knows for sure, because illegals cannot be tracked or estimated by official statistics.

Anyway, demographic patterns will be back to pre-Covid levels again.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

The new Census Bureau estimates for July 1, 2023 (US, states, Puerto Rico and components of change) will be released next Tuesday, December 19.

I predict population growth was about 1.7 to 1.9 million last year, slightly up from the year before, or 0.5% to 0.6% in relative terms.

Natural growth, which is more births than deaths, was around 500.000, and maybe an additional 1.2 to 1.4 million net legal immigrants. There were obviously many illegals too, but they are not estimated into the Census Bureau numbers.

Texas, Florida, Utah, Nevada, Idaho should be the fastest growing states with between 1.6 and 2%.

Texas and Florida alone should be up by 550.000 and 350.000 respectively.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

The new Census Bureau estimates for July 1, 2023 (US, states, Puerto Rico and components of change) will be released next Tuesday, December 19.

I predict population growth was about 1.7 to 1.9 million last year, slightly up from the year before, or 0.5% to 0.6% in relative terms.

Natural growth, which is more births than deaths, was around 500.000, and maybe an additional 1.2 to 1.4 million net legal immigrants. There were obviously many illegals too, but they are not estimated into the Census Bureau numbers.

Texas, Florida, Utah, Nevada, Idaho should be the fastest growing states with between 1.6 and 2%.

Texas and Florida alone should be up by 550.000 and 350.000 respectively.

There will be a webinar on Monday, December 18, to discuss methodology changes in the estimates. I am not sure how these changes will effect the estimates.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

The new Census Bureau estimates for July 1, 2023 (US, states, Puerto Rico and components of change) will be released next Tuesday, December 19.

I predict population growth was about 1.7 to 1.9 million last year, slightly up from the year before, or 0.5% to 0.6% in relative terms.

Natural growth, which is more births than deaths, was around 500.000, and maybe an additional 1.2 to 1.4 million net legal immigrants. There were obviously many illegals too, but they are not estimated into the Census Bureau numbers.

Texas, Florida, Utah, Nevada, Idaho should be the fastest growing states with between 1.6 and 2%.

Texas and Florida alone should be up by 550.000 and 350.000 respectively.

There will be a webinar on Monday, December 18, to discuss methodology changes in the estimates. I am not sure how these changes will effect the estimates.

It is also possible that South Carolina was the fastest growing state in 2022-23, because it was already in the top-3 last year. Arizona is another candidate for the top-5.

And maybe California stopped its loss? It certainly didn't grow by a lot, maybe just by a few thousand people. It is more likely that it still declined though.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

I could see NC and GA almost having the same population. It wouldn’t surprise me if NC surpasses GA

As of last year, NC was still trailing GA by more than 200.000 people.

NC is only growing slightly faster than GA by about 20-40.000 per year, so it will probably take well until Census Day 2030 for it to overtake GA.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

The new mid-2023 state population estimates will be out later today around 11am East Coast.

What could happen:

CO could overtake WI
NV could overtake IA
KS could overtake MS
ID could overtake NE

Other than that, no big changes in rankings until 2035-38, when Texas will become the largest state - assuming CA doesn't stop their slide.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

The new mid-2023 state population estimates will be out later today around 11am East Coast.

What could happen:

CO could overtake WI
NV could overtake IA
KS could overtake MS
ID could overtake NE

Other than that, no big changes in rankings until 2035-38, when Texas will become the largest state - assuming CA doesn't stop their slide.

How about city/county estimates?

They will be released in March:

https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/about/schedule.html

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

The new Census Bureau estimates for July 1, 2023 (US, states, Puerto Rico and components of change) will be released next Tuesday, December 19.

I predict population growth was about 1.7 to 1.9 million last year, slightly up from the year before, or 0.5% to 0.6% in relative terms.

Natural growth, which is more births than deaths, was around 500.000, and maybe an additional 1.2 to 1.4 million net legal immigrants. There were obviously many illegals too, but they are not estimated into the Census Bureau numbers.

Texas, Florida, Utah, Nevada, Idaho should be the fastest growing states with between 1.6 and 2%.

Texas and Florida alone should be up by 550.000 and 350.000 respectively.

There will be a webinar on Monday, December 18, to discuss methodology changes in the estimates. I am not sure how these changes will effect the estimates.

It is also possible that South Carolina was the fastest growing state in 2022-23, because it was already in the top-3 last year. Arizona is another candidate for the top-5.

And maybe California stopped its loss? It certainly didn't grow by a lot, maybe just by a few thousand people. It is more likely that it still declined though.

"South Carolina and Florida were the two fastest-growing states in the nation, growing by 1.7% and 1.6%, respectively, in 2023."

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2023/population-trends-return-to-pre-pandemic-norms.html

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Anyway, demographic patterns will be back to pre-Covid levels again.

"For Immediate Release: Tuesday, December 19, 2023

U.S. Population Trends Return to Pre-Pandemic Norms as More States Gain Population"

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2023/population-trends-return-to-pre-pandemic-norms.html

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

The new Census Bureau estimates for July 1, 2023 (US, states, Puerto Rico and components of change) will be released next Tuesday, December 19.

I predict population growth was about 1.7 to 1.9 million last year, slightly up from the year before, or 0.5% to 0.6% in relative terms.

Natural growth, which is more births than deaths, was around 500.000, and maybe an additional 1.2 to 1.4 million net legal immigrants. There were obviously many illegals too, but they are not estimated into the Census Bureau numbers.

Texas, Florida, Utah, Nevada, Idaho should be the fastest growing states with between 1.6 and 2%.

Texas and Florida alone should be up by 550.000 and 350.000 respectively.

"The nation gained more than 1.6 million people this past year, growing by 0.5% to 334,914,895."

"Texas experienced the largest numeric change in the nation, adding 473,453 people, followed by Florida, which added 365,205 residents."

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2023/population-trends-return-to-pre-pandemic-norms.html

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

I could see NC and GA almost having the same population. It wouldn’t surprise me if NC surpasses GA

As of last year, NC was still trailing GA by more than 200.000 people.

NC is only growing slightly faster than GA by about 20-40.000 per year, so it will probably take well until Census Day 2030 for it to overtake GA.

Based on the growth of the past year, NC could overtake GA in 9-10 years.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

The new mid-2023 state population estimates will be out later today around 11am East Coast.

What could happen:

CO could overtake WI
NV could overtake IA
KS could overtake MS
ID could overtake NE

Other than that, no big changes in rankings until 2035-38, when Texas will become the largest state - assuming CA doesn't stop their slide.

CO could overtake WI - did not happen
NV could overtake IA - did not happen
KS could overtake MS - did happen
ID could overtake NE - did not happen

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Big descrepancies:

The Census Bureau said Washington (state) only grew by 45.000, while Washington state said they grew by 100.000 last year.

Same with Oregon: +15.000 (state, or University of Portland), -16.000 (Census Bureau)

Explanantions?

Once again, huge discrepancies between the Census Bureau numbers today and the state estimates:

Washington: +28.000 (Census Bureau), +87.000 (Washington State government)
Oregon: -6.000 (Census Bureau), +23.000 (Portland University)

How can this be?

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Big descrepancies:

The Census Bureau said Washington (state) only grew by 45.000, while Washington state said they grew by 100.000 last year.

Same with Oregon: +15.000 (state, or University of Portland), -16.000 (Census Bureau)

Explanantions?

Once again, huge discrepancies between the Census Bureau numbers today and the state estimates:

Washington: +28.000 (Census Bureau), +87.000 (Washington State government)
Oregon: -6.000 (Census Bureau), +23.000 (Portland University)

How can this be?

The discrepancy between the Census Bureau and state officials estimates is also very obvious in Arizona:

Census Bureau: +65.000
AZ Commerce Agency: +116.000

For California, it's not so big:

Census Bureau: -75.000
CA Dept. of Finance: -30.000

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

In Texas, the TX Demographics Center estimated +560.000 for last year, the Census Bureau only +470.000

https://demographics.texas.gov/

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

I also make an alternate projection based on just the prior two years of estimates to determine the rate of growth. It's more sensitive to recent growth trends, and should reduce the impact of the pandemic. The differences are DE stays even, FL gains 4, LA loses 1, MI loses 1, SC gains 1, and WI stays even.

I expect that these projections will shift as the decade progresses.

Growth is picking up speed, leaving Covid behind.

US deaths are down to 3 million this year, from weekly CDC data.

Births are at 3.65 million

The US gains 0.65 million from a birth surplus alone (or 0.2%) and legal immigration is well over a million this year.

With the Mexican border surge, I expect an acceleration in population growth to 2 million with the next set of estimates in one year. Or +0.6%.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

With the Mexican border surge, I expect an acceleration in population growth to 2 million with the next set of estimates in one year. Or +0.6%.

How much of that increase from 1 Jul 2023 to 30 Jun 2024 do you expect from immigration? In 2023 the estimate was 0.5 million from natural change and 1.1 million from immigration.

Muon,

I expect 3.7 million births and 3.05 million deaths in between this next Census Bureau year.

That's +0.65 million in natural change + maybe 1.2 to 1.4 million in legal immigration surplus.

(Illegal immigrants crossing the Mexico border are NOT estimated by the Census Bureau in their annual estimates.)

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

With the Mexican border surge, I expect an acceleration in population growth to 2 million with the next set of estimates in one year. Or +0.6%.

How much of that increase from 1 Jul 2023 to 30 Jun 2024 do you expect from immigration? In 2023 the estimate was 0.5 million from natural change and 1.1 million from immigration.

Muon,

I expect 3.7 million births and 3.05 million deaths in between this next Census Bureau year.

That's +0.65 million in natural change + maybe 1.2 to 1.4 million in legal immigration surplus.

(Illegal immigrants crossing the Mexico border are NOT estimated by the Census Bureau in their annual estimates.)

The 2021 faq about counting foreign-born persons included this:

Do the data on the foreign born collected by the Census Bureau include unauthorized immigrants?

Yes. The U.S. Census Bureau collects data from all foreign born who participate in its censuses and surveys, regardless of legal status. Thus, unauthorized migrants are implicitly included in the Census Bureau estimates of the total foreign-born population.

That seems to say that illegal immigrants (unauthorized migrants to the CB) are included in their estimates.

I think these surveys are not the same as the annual estimates for the national and state data.

The FAQ says that unauthorized migrants are asked to participate in the census and surveys, but the annual population estimates are not a survey. I think the FAQ refers only to the annual ACS (American community survey) and the survey of the foreign born.

It would then depend if they use ACS and foreign-born surveys for their annual population estimates, which I don't know. I know that they use Green Card applications and tax data to estimate immigration and emigration.