Census Population Estimates 2020-29

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I thank you for your posts in this thread. They are informative and interesting.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ouch.
Poor West Virginia.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Why has Alabama been holding up decently these past few years, especially compared to MS, LA, and AR?

AL doesn't seem particularly desirable and doesn't have really have spawning industry in many of it's major cities outside of maybe Huntsville, which is a very small portion of the state.

Is Baldwin County showing fast growth?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Why has Alabama been holding up decently these past few years, especially compared to MS, LA, and AR?

AL doesn't seem particularly desirable and doesn't have really have spawning industry in many of it's major cities outside of maybe Huntsville, which is a very small portion of the state.

Is Baldwin County showing fast growth?

Yes, but Mobile is shrinking pretty badly iirc

I guess population trends in places like Birmingham must be rather healthy then. That feels like a necessary ingredient here.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Why has Alabama been holding up decently these past few years, especially compared to MS, LA, and AR?

AL doesn't seem particularly desirable and doesn't have really have spawning industry in many of it's major cities outside of maybe Huntsville, which is a very small portion of the state.

Arkansas (which also has a very high population growth rate relative to the nation) and Alabama both are emerging into the new South the same way Tennessee did

Huntsville and Fayetteville are both engines of growth in the new states but Birmingham and Little Rock are also holding up well.


The only Southern states* left with domestic migration problems are Mississippi and Louisiana.

*Excluding the Mid-Atlantic region of Virginia, Maryland, and DC but they barely count

Glad for Arkansas cause a hypothetical 3 seat AR down the road would suck.

One can expect that if AR keeps 4 seats, the NW AR seat will keep shrinking more and more.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Why has Alabama been holding up decently these past few years, especially compared to MS, LA, and AR?

AL doesn't seem particularly desirable and doesn't have really have spawning industry in many of it's major cities outside of maybe Huntsville, which is a very small portion of the state.

Arkansas (which also has a very high population growth rate relative to the nation) and Alabama both are emerging into the new South the same way Tennessee did

Huntsville and Fayetteville are both engines of growth in the new states but Birmingham and Little Rock are also holding up well.


The only Southern states* left with domestic migration problems are Mississippi and Louisiana.

*Excluding the Mid-Atlantic region of Virginia, Maryland, and DC but they barely count

Glad for Arkansas cause a hypothetical 3 seat AR down the road would suck.

One can expect that if AR keeps 4 seats, the NW AR seat will keep shrinking more and more.

Rs might try to crack it eventually but which would suck. Rn it’s Trump + 23.2 which should be more than fine for this decade, but if the district keeps shredding the outermost rurals, it could narrow pretty rapidly.

Is a commission possible in AR? Ik there’s ballot initiative but it’s weaker than some other states.

A commission should be possible in Arkansas. But are enough people willing to sign a petition to get one to the ballot? The attempt back in 2020-2021 didn't really get enough support at that stage, so it never had a chance.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Why has Alabama been holding up decently these past few years, especially compared to MS, LA, and AR?

AL doesn't seem particularly desirable and doesn't have really have spawning industry in many of it's major cities outside of maybe Huntsville, which is a very small portion of the state.

Arkansas (which also has a very high population growth rate relative to the nation) and Alabama both are emerging into the new South the same way Tennessee did

Huntsville and Fayetteville are both engines of growth in the new states but Birmingham and Little Rock are also holding up well.


The only Southern states* left with domestic migration problems are Mississippi and Louisiana.

*Excluding the Mid-Atlantic region of Virginia, Maryland, and DC but they barely count

Glad for Arkansas cause a hypothetical 3 seat AR down the road would suck.

One can expect that if AR keeps 4 seats, the NW AR seat will keep shrinking more and more.

Rs might try to crack it eventually but which would suck. Rn it’s Trump + 23.2 which should be more than fine for this decade, but if the district keeps shredding the outermost rurals, it could narrow pretty rapidly.

Is a commission possible in AR? Ik there’s ballot initiative but it’s weaker than some other states.

A commission should be possible in Arkansas. But are enough people willing to sign a petition to get one to the ballot? The attempt back in 2020-2021 didn't really get enough support at that stage, so it never had a chance.

If Ds are smart, they'd prololy do it now since a redistricting commission wouldn't affect the topline composition of Congress and State Leg very much right now, but down the road it could if the 3rd becomes competative.

I don't disagree.