Census Population Estimates 2020-29

[jimrtex]

Census' 2021 incorporated place estimates are out. They're not pretty, especially for NYC.
https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2022/fastest-growing-cities-population-estimates.html

My yearly interactive map is here:
https://cinycmaps.com/index.php/population-change/110-2021-incorporated-place-and-remainder-population-change-map

It is interesting that they included housing counts. The new urban area definition is based on housing units, rather than population. This is because they now fudge population figures, particularly for small areas, while the housing units count is correct (a casual observer can count how many houses there are on a block, and there really are not privacy issues in revealing how many apartments are in a block). The use of housing units will also permit urban areas to be updated during the decade.

Based on the April 2020 to July 2021 change, Houston will pass Chicago in about 15 years (2036).

[Brittain33]

Based on the April 2020 to July 2021 change, Houston will pass Chicago in about 15 years (2036).

It will be interesting to see how the impacts of climate change, which are already hurting Houston more than Chicago, affect this trend. Chicago is coming in for some deadly heat but not the kind of flooding Houston's going to see more and more of.

[Torie]

Census' 2021 incorporated place estimates are out. They're not pretty, especially for NYC.
https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2022/fastest-growing-cities-population-estimates.html

My yearly interactive map is here:
https://cinycmaps.com/index.php/population-change/110-2021-incorporated-place-and-remainder-population-change-map

Covid and NYC do not mix.

[Skill and Chance]

Based on the April 2020 to July 2021 change, Houston will pass Chicago in about 15 years (2036).

It will be interesting to see how the impacts of climate change, which are already hurting Houston more than Chicago, affect this trend. Chicago is coming in for some deadly heat but not the kind of flooding Houston's going to see more and more of.

Houston growth still meaningfully depends on oil prices.  This was one of the worst time periods on record for oil prices and they are now much higher.  If current prices are sustained for multiple years, expect very rapid late 2000's style growth in Houston again and it could catch Chicago a lot sooner.

[Skill and Chance]

The year 2021 began with birth counts hitting record lows. January 2021 saw the United States' population contract by 96,000 people due to deaths outnumbering births, a record that still stands to this day. This is due to the month not only being the largest peak in COVID-19 deaths the United States saw, but also because it was nine months after March 2020, which was when COVID-19 and the panic surrounding it emerged and lockdowns were beginning to be put into place. To top it off, January is already typically the month with the lowest natural increase of any month due to seasonal birth / death patterns.

However, after the Spring of 2020, excess alarm over COVID-19 had largely subsided. This caused births over 2021 to recover in relation to their positions the previous year, and the latter half of 2021 more than made up for the loss seen in the year's first few months. The current preliminary count of total births in the United States stands at 3,654,930 for the year 2021, an increase of over 40,000 compared to the final 2020 number (3,611,086).

In fact, the Total Fertility Rate of the country in 2021 is likely to be placed at 1.65 to 1.66, much higher than predictions made mid-year. Whether the uptick is the beginning of a sustained trend upward or just a correction for the birth drop remains to be seen, but an uptick did happen.

Natural Increase in the calendar year 2021, though, remained lower than it was in 2020 (+229K in 2020 vs. +196K in 2021), because even though most of the year saw more births, death counts remained at an elevated state throughout 2021, with the beginning of the year peak, and then Delta and Omicron. However, nearly all the of the deficit between the two years comes in the first few months of 2021, and the COVID-19 waves coming later in the year have been less severe than those seen previously. Because of this, we can easily say that the Fiscal Year 2022 (with its population estimates) are almost certainly going to look better than they did in 2021 in regards to natural population growth.

Here are two graphs showing how natural growth and decline happened this last year:

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Of course, though, these changes did not occur evenly state-by-state. Some places fared better than others, as can be seen in these maps:

NATURAL INCREASE YEAR 2021

Each interval is 1 per thousand people, population figures coming from most recent Vintage Population estimates, green is positive and blue is negative.

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PERC. CHANGE IN BIRTHS 2020 - 21

Each interval is 1%, green is positive and blue is negative.

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Of course, I'll also continue the month-on-month maps I was making showing natural population growth and decline, as we've now received our Q4 2021 data. Here the maps are:

Each interval is 1 per thousand people (adjusted to annual numbers), population figures coming from most recent Vintage Population estimates, green is positive and blue is negative.

OCTOBER 2021 PRELIMINARY

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NOVEMBER 2021 PRELIMINARY

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DECEMBER 2021 PRELIMINARY

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Hmmm... is New England starting to have kids again?  Could be a blip, but interesting to follow.  Keep in mind Scandinavia now has some of the highest birthrates in Europe. 

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

Regional patterns also shifted from the odd year of 2021 new arrivals. 2021 looked like this:

This also has a country-by-country breakdown, with the top ten countries for legal immigration new arrivals in the calendar year 2021 being:

315,724 Total

• (16.6%) 52,469 - Mexico
• (6.6%) 20,759 - Dominican Republic
• (6.5%) 20,381 - China
• (5.1%) 16,079 - The Philippines
• (3.2%) 10,082 - Vietnam
• (3.1%) 9,864 - El Salvador
• (2.9%) 9,100 - India
• (2.8%) 8,865 - Afghanistan
• (2.3%) 7,359 - Pakistan
• (1.8%) 5,816 - Bangladesh

And here's the breakdown by continent:

• (36.9%) 116,379 - Asia
• (36.1%) 113,811 - North America
• (11.8%) 37,184 - Africa
• (6.7%) 21,307 - South America
• (6.4%) 20,085 - Europe

While this is how the first half of 2022 is looking like:

315,724 Total

• (17.4%) 36,344 - Mexico
• (7.2%) 15,092 - China
• (6.3%) 13,163 - Dominican Republic
• (4.3%) 9,022 - El Salvador
• (3.9%) 8,194 - The Philippines
• (3.1%) 6,448 - India
• (2.4%) 4,950 - Guatemala
• (2.3%) 4,719 - Vietnam
• (2.1%) 4,448 - Ecuador
• (2.1%) 4,377 - Colombia

By continent:

• (39.1%) 81,832 - North America
• (32.6%) 68,242 - Asia
• (10.0%) 20,990 - Africa
• (8.5%) 17,681 - South America
• (6.9%) 14,369 - Europe

Surge towards Latin America (particularly Central America) and away from much of Asia (exc. China and India) are some of trends I'm picking up

Vietnam and the Philippines seem on-par with 2021 numbers so far, while China and India are matching the surge from Spanish-speaking Latin America.

[walleye26]

Wisconsin’s Department of Administration released their population estimates from 2020-June 2022. It states that Wisconsin added 53,700 people from The 2020 census to now. That seems a bit high, but if we are gaining people from Chicago (which it looks like Kenosha, Walworth, and Waukesha are adding people) that might be the case. Of the 53,700 new Wisconsinites, top gainers are:

Dane +20,661
Brown +4,420
Waukesha +3,791
St Croix +2,733
Calumet +2,555
Eau Claire +2,309
Outagamie +2,233
Washington + 1,468
LaCrosse +1,342
Rock +1,272


Biggest Losers in Population were the following
Milwaukee -1,574
Grant -767
Dodge -574
(All other population losses were under 100 people, with Ashland being the next at -90).

The state DOA says 12 counties lost population, but most of them were marginal (less than 100 people)
Of the 60 counties that gained population, 21 had a gain of less than 100 people.

Full results here: https://doa.wi.gov/DIR/Prelim_Est_Co_2022.pdf

[ProgressiveModerate]

Wisconsin’s Department of Administration released their population estimates from 2020-June 2022. It states that Wisconsin added 53,700 people from The 2020 census to now. That seems a bit high, but if we are gaining people from Chicago (which it looks like Kenosha, Walworth, and Waukesha are adding people) that might be the case. Of the 53,700 new Wisconsinites, top gainers are:

Dane +20,661
Brown +4,420
Waukesha +3,791
St Croix +2,733
Calumet +2,555
Eau Claire +2,309
Outagamie +2,233
Washington + 1,468
LaCrosse +1,342
Rock +1,272


Biggest Losers in Population were the following
Milwaukee -1,574
Grant -767
Dodge -574
(All other population losses were under 100 people, with Ashland being the next at -90).

The state DOA says 12 counties lost population, but most of them were marginal (less than 100 people)
Of the 60 counties that gained population, 21 had a gain of less than 100 people.

Full results here: https://doa.wi.gov/DIR/Prelim_Est_Co_2022.pdf

Dane is really the MVP for Dems in WI. Extremely blue for a city of its size, high turnout, and the fastest growing part of the state and has been able to overcome a lot of brutal shifts for Dems. Will it be enough going forwards? We’ll see.

[Skill and Chance]

The 2020 census was obviously out of whack because of COVID and I expect the Sunbelt will most likely get a big boost in 2030.  Could even something like TX+4/FL+3/AZ+2 be possible?   

[locked_out]

Great post! The pattern is very interesting here... I suppose average age is the strongest correlate? Seeing NY in the same category as SD is always unusual

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1605959620123447307


https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1605959697911119877

2nd seat Delaware if trends continue

[locked_out]

Do you know where these figures are available?

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1605959620123447307


https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1605959697911119877

2nd seat Delaware if trends continue

Wow!

Idaho has already gained enough for a 3rd seat?!

Also, that projection would be a net shift of 11 districts (roughly equivalent to the entire population of Virginia!) and 11 EV from clearly D leaning states to clearly R leaning states in 2031.  D’s were extremely lucky the census happened when it did.  At this point, I will be surprised if there isn’t a Dem EC/PV advantage in 2028.

[Vern]

I’m glad to see NC on track to gain another seat!

[kwabbit]

Do you know where these figures are available?

2022 Vintage Estimates

[Roll Roons]

Wow!

Idaho has already gained enough for a 3rd seat?!

There are few better places to live and raise a family than Ada County. It has very low rates of crime and poverty, friendly locals, a diverse, dynamic and recession-proof economy, a relatively low cost of living and plenty of opportunities for cultural activities and outdoor recreation.

In light of all this, its insane growth rate is not surprising.

And if you've ever been to Coeur d'Alene, it's real a contender for one of the most beautiful places in the US. Shame the far-right nutjobs kind of spoil it.

[Skill and Chance]

Wow!

Idaho has already gained enough for a 3rd seat?!

There are few better places to live and raise a family than Ada County. It has very low rates of crime and poverty, friendly locals, a diverse, dynamic and recession-proof economy, a relatively low cost of living and plenty of opportunities for cultural activities and outdoor recreation.

In light of all this, its insane growth rate is not surprising.

And if you've ever been to Coeur d'Alene, it's real a contender for one of the most beautiful places in the US. Shame the far-right nutjobs kind of spoil it.

Hmmm... maybe Idaho is actually the Interior West state that's the best candidate for eventual WFH techie dominance?

[kwabbit]

Notable: Huge surge in International Immigration towards the United States, reaching pre-COVID levels. Natural increase slightly rebounds as well to give the USA decent population growth.

Tennessee's population reaches 7 million, surpassing a shrinking Massachusetts to become the fifteenth-most populated state in the country.

Florida is the FASTEST-GROWING state by percentage and only second in raw growth to Texas. Nearly 450,000 people moved to Florida over the previous year, 125,000 internationally and 320,000 domestically

Do you know when the county-level estimates will be released? Those are more interesting to me than the statewide estimates.

[Storr]

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Since the 2020 census


Overall, during the last year
Growth in the Interior West remained high but slowed down (except in Montana, where it sped up)
Growth in the New South sped up considerably
Shrinking in the Midwest, New York, and California slowed for the most part but they still remain shrinking
Shrinking sped up in Louisiana

Notable: Huge surge in International Immigration towards the United States, reaching pre-COVID levels. Natural increase slightly rebounds as well to give the USA decent population growth.

Tennessee's population reaches 7 million, surpassing a shrinking Massachusetts to become the fifteenth-most populated state in the country.

Florida is the FASTEST-GROWING state by percentage and only second in raw growth to Texas. Nearly 450,000 people moved to Florida over the previous year, 125,000 internationally and 320,000 domestically

Do you know when the county-level estimates will be released? Those are more interesting to me than the statewide estimates.

June

Yikes! It's shocking to see such low population growth, despite being expected with the increased number of deaths due to COVID. At least the US still had population growth during this tough time, much of Europe cannot say the same.

[Nyvin]

Idaho with three districts will work so much better anyway.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Idaho gaining a 3rd seat is baked in if it wasn't a given already.

Massachusetts shrinking outright is def interesting given it seemed to hold up ok last decade and at face value seems desirable for quite a few reasons, especially with the fleeing from northeastern cities during covid.

Maine also sticks out given it has historically been stagnant. My guess would be it's sort of a Colorado case where people move their because of it's beauty and stuff, and I hope that's enough to hold it in the D column for a while.

Oregon and Washington slowing down is also notable. Originally, I thought WA would be favored to gain an 11th seat but now that's more in question.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Do ya'll think NJ will keep 12 districts? Traditionally, it's lost a district every other census so if the pattern continues, you'd expect it to lose in 2030, but it did outperform expectations a bit in 2020 thanks to unexpectedly strong growth right outside NYC. Was some of this growth potentially just because of COVID and/or an overestimate, cause I just find it rlly suprising that growth is hitting Newark so much of all places; I don't see much development out there and Newark doesn't seem particuarly desireable.

Jersey City makes a bit more sense though, 40+ floor apartment buildings are popping up left and right

[Annatar]

Quite possible now TX overtakes CA in the 2030's in population and after the 2040 census ends up with more house seats, before I used to think it would take until the 2040's but CA has completely stopped growing and a decline of around 0.2% per annum for the rest of the decade certainly looks feasible.

[Sol]

Idaho with three districts will work so much better anyway.

The Coeur D'Alene district will probably still have to take in a bit of the Boise area unfortunately, at least under a distribution like current numbers.

[Skill and Chance]

Idaho with three districts will work so much better anyway.

The Coeur D'Alene district will probably still have to take in a bit of the Boise area unfortunately, at least under a distribution like current numbers.

Keep in mind that Idaho has an independent commission in the state constitution.  If the natural population #'s favor an all-Boise district, we can expect to get one.