2012 scenario: McCain/Graham vs. Obama/Bayh

[Mr. Morden]

Suppose a John McCain / Lindsay Graham ticket defeats a Mark Warner / Bill Richardson ticket in 2008.  Popular vote margin of about 4 percentage points.  In 2012, McCain is running for reelection, and is challenged by Barack Obama, with running mate Evan Bayh.  (I view this as a very plausible scenario, though others may disagree.)

Based entirely on your own opinion of what's going to happen with world events in the next six years and your own opinion of how a President McCain would govern, who do you think is more likely to win, McCain or Obama in '12?

Feel free to use maps, but remember to adjust for new electoral vote counts in 2012, as discussed here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=42451.0

[True Democrat]

McCain/Graham is my dream ticket for 2008.

[True Democrat]

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

There are a couple of problems with this.

McCain will be 76 this time - older than Reagan in '84 by three years. Many would not want him to run again.

Hmmm Graham will have some questions to answer about his "confirmed bachelor" status... come everyone knows what I'm talking about.

Firstly to have Obama and Bayh and NOT have them win either IL or IN is utter lunacy.


Obama would get 95%+ of the black vote... which would definitely help in close states.

Frankly I think the reverse is likely Bayh/Obama should the Dems not win in 08'