Gallup: Dems lead on Congressional ballot shrinks

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D: 47, R: 45%

http://www.galluppoll.com/content/?ci=24229

[MarkWarner08]

I put as much credence in this poll as much as that dubious Fox News poll putting Democrats up 18% in a generic ballot.

This poll is an outlier. Moving on.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If you look at the polling sample, this is among registered voters, and the ones showing a much bigger lead is among likely voters, it is like the mason dixon polls, they do registered likely to vote, and the others do likely voters. I wouldn't dismiss this poll.

[MarkWarner08]

If you look at the polling sample, this is among registered voters, and the ones showing a much bigger lead is among likely voters, it is like the mason dixon polls, they do registered likely to vote, and the others do likely voters. I wouldn't dismiss this poll.

The demographics are skewed GOP. This poll was also taken during the aftermath of the terror attacks being foiled. Just don't panic.


We are probably up by 9%, not 2% or 18%. The climate is anti-Bush, anti- Congress, anti-incumbent, anti-status quo, anti-GOP and pro- change. Which party will lose seats in that kinda year? The one in charge.


The GOP is in deep trouble.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It also,  how you press leaners. I don't think this poll is an outlier. The leads in the red state senate races: MT, MO, and somewhat in PA have evaporated. Fox News said that the Dems must get their poll numbers up to get back the house.

[MarkWarner08]

It also,  how you press leaners. I don't think this poll is an outlier. The leads in the red state senate races: MT, MO, and somewhat in PA have evaporated. Fox News said that the Dems must get their poll numbers up to get back the house.

Please don't quote Fox News. That's like dogmatically quoting some crazy guy on dKos who thinks we'll win 60 Senate seats.

Burns is imploding, Talent is still in trouble over stem cells and Santorum's still doomed. I'll admit that I just moved Talent's seat in Leans Republican from Toss Up.

[MarkWarner08]

I just saw that this polls claims that the voter enthusiasm level for the '06 midterms fell from 50% enthusiastic to just 39%.

The poll also claims the GOP is tied with Democrats among "Regular Voters."
If this is true, Democrats are going to LOSE House and Senate seats.

[ATFFL]

Gallup is tweaking their methodology from 2004 because of their blowing that election.  This is going to make reading their polls a bit more challenging.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Fox News just said on Saturday that among likely voters the Dems were way out in front, but among registered voters the lead shrinks to 5 or less and this is what we have. I agree with them. Look what happened to the leads we enjoyed in the CA governor race, it is lean republican, we lost the lead in AK governor race, and we are statistically tied in CO-7, I think this poll is accurate.

[MarkWarner08]

Fox News just said on Saturday that among likely voters the Dems were way out in front, but among registered voters the lead shrinks to 5 or less and this is what we have. I agree with them. Look what happened to the leads we enjoyed in the CA governor race, it is lean republican, we lost the lead in AK governor race, and we are statistically tied in CO-7, I think this poll is accurate.

What are you talking about? We only lead the Alaska Governor's race wehn Murkowski was the GOP candidate. Murkowski lost the GOP primary. We have been up and down and up and down in California. Anyways,  Arnold is governing like a Democrats, so don't pretend good news for Arnold is good news for the GOP.


Finally, the methdology behind the C0-7 is suspect. SUSA overpolled Republican and underpolled Independents and Democrats. The district is going Democratic.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rasmussen shows AK with Palin with a 13 point lead, i June she was behind by 4 points to Knowles. As for Arnold, CA is not in play, but our chances there is much better than FL. And it will eventually become competetive again.  As for CO-7, the district which was vacated by Beauprez, they had to do a hand recount in order for him to win, so I wouldn't bet that it is for sure Dem leaning. All I am saying is that the analyst said the race will tighten on the generic ballot when the election nears, and the Gallup poll has proved it.

[Joe Republic]

I don't trust any of these generic polls.  Asking somebody which party they'd like to see with a majority in Congress is different from asking them if they'd vote against their cuddly moderate congressman in order to do so.

[MarkWarner08]

Rasmussen shows AK with Palin with a 13 point lead, i June she was behind by 4 points to Knowles. As for Arnold, CA is not in play, but our chances there is much better than FL. And it will eventually become competetive again.  As for CO-7, the district which was vacated by Beauprez, they had to do a hand recount in order for him to win, so I wouldn't bet that it is for sure Dem leaning. All I am saying is that the analyst said the race will tighten on the generic ballot when the election nears, and the Gallup poll has proved it.

The June poll was highly suspect. Are you not familiar with Alaska's demographic makeup. It's a REPUBLICAN state. They only had one Democratic Governor in 25 years and he only won because of the GOP internecine.

CO-7 is going Democratic because Perlmutter's a good candidate, it's good year and the GOPer's too extreme.


Do you think this is going to be abad year for Democrats? Do you think this is close.Do you think all of the venerated political prognositicators who were RIGHT in 1998, 2000, 2002 and 2004 will be wrong this year?

Stu Rothenberg, Larry Sabato, Chuck Todd and Charlie Cook all believe Democrats will be making massive gains this year.

[MarkWarner08]

I don't trust any of these generic polls.  Asking somebody which party they'd like to see with a majority in Congress is different from asking them if they'd vote against their cuddly moderate congressman in order to do so.

exactly. Still, people like Deborah Pryce will be in trouble this year.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

All I am saying is that the pollsters said that it the races will tighten, and the partisans will come back. Bush poll numbers have climbed, so it is understandable, the GOp will come back on the generic ballot. I wouldn't be certain that CO will be Dem, Beauprez had to do a hand recount before he got into offfice.

[Sam Spade]

Folks, it's just one poll conducted in the middle of the summer. Geez, don't read too much into it.

[Mike in Maryland]

CBS/NYT put out a poll (conducted at the same time as Gallup's) that showed Dems with a double-digit lead in the generic ballot (47-35 or thereabouts).  I think the truth lies somewhere between the two.

As for Gallup "blowing the election" in 2004, as I recall their last poll showed Bush and Kerry about even (I think Bush was up by one, but I'm not sure; there were too many polls out at the same time) which, given margins of error, was close to the mark.  But along the way they produced some really out-of-whack results, such as the 13-point Bush lead in mid-September that was not supported by any other reputable poll, which still didn't stop some in the media (such as its polling partners CNN and USA Today) from practically declaring the election over until Kerry's debate rebound.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Mike these are among registered voters, the CBS poll is done among likely voters and there is a difference.

[Sam Spade]

CBS/NYT put out a poll (conducted at the same time as Gallup's) that showed Dems with a double-digit lead in the generic ballot (47-35 or thereabouts).  I think the truth lies somewhere between the two.

As for Gallup "blowing the election" in 2004, as I recall their last poll showed Bush and Kerry about even (I think Bush was up by one, but I'm not sure; there were too many polls out at the same time) which, given margins of error, was close to the mark.  But along the way they produced some really out-of-whack results, such as the 13-point Bush lead in mid-September that was not supported by any other reputable poll, which still didn't stop some in the media (such as its polling partners CNN and USA Today) from practically declaring the election over until Kerry's debate rebound.

Actually, their last poll showed Bush up 2 (49-47-1), which was the final difference, anywho.  But for some reason they decided to push the remaining undecideds 2 for Kerry and 1 for Nader, which left it (49-49-2).

I still haven't figured out how someone could make that decision as to undecided split.  It still baffles the mind.

Anyway for clarification, the CBS poll said Dems +15, Gallup said Dems +2, CNN said Dems +9, Rasmussen said Dems +8, Pew said Dems +9.

So, it's probably around Dem +8-9 right now.  It's also the middle of summer and these are adult polls (not RV or even LV), so you know what my comments are there.

I also should add that the CBS poll, while honest about what it does, has such a consistently bad methodology that to me it is often quite questionable most of the time.  The concerns with Gallup are also fruitful, but the company is honest.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

On the Gallup survey page it says registered voters.