Why didn't FDR do better in NYS?

[Sir Mohamed]

I know NY was a different state in the 1930s and 40s compared to today, but looking at the 4 landslides FDR was able to win at the national level, it feels like he underperformed in his homestate. Each time, NY voted several points more GOP than the nation as a whole: It was 54-41% in 1932 and 58-39% in 1936. In 1940, Willkie came within less than 3 pts, 48-51%, even though he wasn't a native New Yorker himself. And finally, in 1944, FDR only slightly improved to 52-47%. That year he faced the sitting gov of that state, so this performance could be seen as respectable.

Why didn't he win by larger margins? Particularly the result in 1940 is kind of stunning to me. In the 1964 election, which is comparable to 1936 nationwide, Johnson slaughtered Goldwater 68-31% in NYS and swept all counties. Meanwhile, FDR lost most Upstate NY counties in every presidential election he participated in.

[Dead Parrot]

Upstate Yankee whites gave the GOP a solid floor in New York throughout the FDR era (and it would be Goldwater absolutely bombing among this demographic that got him to lose NY by as much as he did.)

The result in 1940 seems to have been the result of a Willkie surge in NYC that is probably explained by regression to the mean as well as ethnic whites disgruntled by FDR's overtures against Nazi Germany.

[TDAS04]

FDR lost Upstate New York for the same reasons he lost Maine and Vermont, while LBJ swept all three. Yankee Republicans weren't scared by Landon or Willkie, like they were by Goldwater.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Goldwater ran his campaign with the explicit message of "F**k the East Coast Yankee Republican establishment." Said East Coast Yankee Republicans responded in kind by bolting for Johnson.

[Podgy the Bear]

The result in 1940 seems to have been the result of a Willkie surge in NYC that is probably explained by regression to the mean as well as ethnic whites disgruntled by FDR's overtures against Nazi Germany.

This is correct.  The isolationist vote was a factor in metropolitan NYC.  There was a substantial drop in FDR's margins throughout the city between 1936 and 1940--and Willkie flipped Queens and Staten Island.  Meanwhile, upstate New York simulated New England, and FDR held his vote or increased it slightly there.  His statewide lead dropped from 20 points to 3.