Is Texas the new Georgia or North Carolina?

[DCUS]

I've seen some mentions of this topic but am interested in exploring this question by itself. Some considerations:

- What differences are there between suburban Austin, Dallas, Houston, etc vs suburban Atlanta?
- Does having multiple separate metros (as opposed to one dominant one) present a natural advantage for Republicans?
- Where are transplants moving to more? Do they tend to be liberal/conservative?
- Will Republican gains with Hispanics save them in Texas?

[Pink Panther]

To answer your considerations:
   -The suburbs of the Texas Triangle are more GOP friendly than the suburbs of Atlanta, I would say because the Atlanta suburbs are a little bit more urbanized and diverse, along with another reason later on, but the Texas Triangle is on the same trajectory, albeit on a slower pace.
  -To answer your second consideration, I would say it depends. Yes, there isn't a dominant metro in NC, but I you have to remember that the GOP is still doing well in outer suburbs and ESPECIALLY exurbs in NC. NJ and California are decent examples of multiple metros dominating a state (though those metros are among the biggest in the country). If they do well enough in the suburbs/exurbs, this would benefit them, which is happening currently in Texas. However, should the trends continue, the GOP's advantage will collapse, turning into a massive obstacle. So for right now, yes, but later on, probably not.
   -I'd say it's clear more transplants are moving into one metro in the Texas Triangle than Atlanta at the moment. However, more right-leaning folks are moving to the Triangle than Atlanta. Also however, the migration to the Triangle has been much more left-wing. So I would say this benefits Dems more.
      - I'm honestly not sure if this trend continues or not. People forget Bush Jr nearly won the state Hispanic vote in both of his campaigns. Though Hispanics aren't super educated, which is trending to the GOP. Another thing is how Hispanics are somewhat poor, which still votes Democratic overwhelmingly. One important factor imo is what will happen as Hispanics become more Americanized. I can see them trying to defend more right-wing measures, especially in Rural and Exurban areas, tough I also can see them being more left-wing, especially in urban and suburban areas. So we'll have to see, but they would probably just slow the eventually moment of a Blue Texas, like what more right-wing whites did to a Blue NC.

In conclusion, I'd say Texas is on a similar trend to both Georgia and NC in a sense, though I feel we'll see a Blue Texas sooner than later, due to the imense growth and blueing of the Triangle outweiging potential GOP gains in the RGV.
     

[Del Tachi]

Seems silly to not mention how much more Black GA is than TX in this thread

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

- Will Republican gains with Hispanics save them in Texas?

Like how Dubya's gains with Hispanics helped Republicans flip California in 2008?

[Rookie Yinzer]

Seems silly to not mention how much more Black GA is than TX in this thread

This.

[OSR stands with Israel]

It’s more like Arizona circa 2010 imo

[Xing]

Its trend isn’t going to be identical to either, obviously, but in terms of how much denial there is about the trend there, it’s similar to how Georgia was seen cerca 2012-2016.