The Magnificent 7: Help me pick 3 candidates

[MarkWarner08]

I'm currently deciding between seven second tier Democratic candidates who are challenging incumbent Republican Congresspeople. I don't have a large budget, so I'm trying to narrow my list down to 3 candidates.

Here are the seven candidates:

Chris Carney: He's a veteran who's running in a rural Pennsylvania against   conservative Republican Don Sherwood, a GOPer who is accused of choking his girlfriend.

John Cranley: He's a bright, young city councilmen in Cincinnati who won 45% of the vote in his 2000 run against Steve Chabot. Cranely could win if there's a wave in Ohio, a likely event considering the state of the Ohio's GOP.

Joe Donnelly: Donnelly ran in 2004 and lost to Congressman Chris Chocola. Donnelly, unlike Chocola, is a moderate who was educated and born in the district. The Cook Political Report recently moved this race into the Toss-Up column

Paul Hodes: I've already sent money to help this candidate. Hodes is a Dartmouth educated Democrat who's running against a flip-flopping RINO who voted for the odious Budget Reconciliation act which increased the interest rates on student loans.

Phil Kellam: He's a strong Democrat running in a  Virginia district that's beginning to trend our way. Kellam has a good chance of defeating Bush supporter Congresswoman Thelma Drake.

Joe Sestak: He’s a decorated admiral running  in a seat that is  trending Democratic. Curt Weldon seems to suffer from foot-in-mouth disease and is beginning to show his rust on the campaign trail. Sestak could beat Weldon if there’s a big wave and if Weldon continues to fall apart like  fellow Pennsylvanian Republican George Gekas did in 2002.

Gary Trauner: He's a Democrat from Wyoming who actually could win a federal office. The GOP incumbent is Barbra Cubin, Wyoming version of Helen Chenoweth. Cubin lost the most populous county in the state in an underwhelming 60% victory over a no-name primary foe.

Any thoughts on who should get some of my help? The reason  why the Lois Murphy's, Brad Ellsworth's and Heath Shuler's of the world aren't mentioned is because they already have achieved financial parity with their GOP opponents. I also eliminated former congressmen like Baron Hill and Ken Lucas because they already are being bankrolled By the DCCC.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'd go with Donnelly

[MarkWarner08]

I'd go with Donnelly

I'm currently leaning towards Donnelly.  I'm curious as to why you picked him.

Do you think Patty Wetterling has a shot? CQ Politics now sees her race as a tossup because of Bachmann's extreme positions on the issues.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'd go with Donnelly

I'm currently leaning towards Donnelly.  I'm curious as to why you picked him.

Mostly because Chocola really pisses me off for some reason. He's just a waste of a congressman. And most of the districts in Indiana are prone to sways.

Do you think Patty Wetterling has a shot? CQ Politics now sees her race as a tossup because of Bachmann's extreme positions on the issues.

Very good chance. She was able to hold Kennedy to 54% in 2004, an incumbent in a presidential year, and now she's running against the most polarizing and gaffe-prone person in the state.

[MarkWarner08]

Do you think Patty Wetterling has a shot? CQ Politics now sees her race as a tossup because of Bachmann's extreme positions on the issues.

Very good chance. She was able to hold Kennedy to 54% in 2004, an incumbent in a presidential year, and now she's running against the most polarizing and gaffe-prone person in the state.
[/quote]

Do you think Kennedy's presence on the ballot as a Senatorial candidate will carry the Republican House candidate to victory?

[TheresNoMoney]

Hodes, Kellam and Sestak.

All three have reasonable chances to win and all three are good candidates.

[MarkWarner08]

Hodes, Kellam and Sestak.

All three have reasonable chances to win and all three are good candidates.

Why Kellam? I just read somewhere he's flip-flopping on the war. I mainly put him there because I despise Drake.

[MarkWarner08]

I'm currently deciding between seven second tier Democratic candidates who are challenging incumbent Republican Congresspeople. I don't have a large budget, so I'm trying to narrow my list down to 3 candidates.

Here are the seven candidates:

Chris Carney: He's a veteran who's running in a rural Pennsylvania against   conservative Republican Don Sherwood, a GOPer who is accused of choking his girlfriend.

John Cranley: He's a bright, young city councilmen in Cincinnati who won 45% of the vote in his 2000 run against Steve Chabot. Cranely could win if there's a wave in Ohio, a likely event considering the state of the Ohio's GOP.

Joe Donnelly: Donnelly ran in 2004 and lost to Congressman Chris Chocola. Donnelly, unlike Chocola, is a moderate who was educated and born in the district. The Cook Political Report recently moved this race into the Toss-Up column

Paul Hodes: I've already sent money to help this candidate. Hodes is a Dartmouth educated Democrat who's running against a flip-flopping RINO who voted for the odious Budget Reconciliation act which increased the interest rates on student loans.

Phil Kellam: He's a strong Democrat running in a  Virginia district that's beginning to trend our way. Kellam has a good chance of defeating Bush supporter Congresswoman Thelma Drake.

Joe Sestak: He’s a decorated admiral running  in a seat that is  trending Democratic. Curt Weldon seems to suffer from foot-in-mouth disease and is beginning to show his rust on the campaign trail. Sestak could beat Weldon if there’s a big wave and if Weldon continues to fall apart like  fellow Pennsylvanian Republican George Gekas did in 2002.

Gary Trauner: He's a Democrat from Wyoming who actually could win a federal office. The GOP incumbent is Barbra Cubin, Wyoming version of Helen Chenoweth. Cubin lost the most populous county in the state in an underwhelming 60% victory over a no-name primary foe.

Any thoughts on who should get some of my help? The reason  why the Lois Murphy's, Brad Ellsworth's and Heath Shuler's of the world aren't mentioned is because they already have achieved financial parity with their GOP opponents. I also eliminated former congressmen like Baron Hill and Ken Lucas because they already are being bankrolled By the DCCC.

Any Ohio residents who can shed some light on Cranley's campaign?  How this race been heavily gerrymandered to favor Chabot, thus eliminating a shot of a Cranley upset? Do the Democrats have a shot, or is this race another seemingly close one that will eventually go Republican.

[Eraserhead]

Big Hodey.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Do you think Patty Wetterling has a shot? CQ Politics now sees her race as a tossup because of Bachmann's extreme positions on the issues.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Do you think Kennedy's presence on the ballot as a Senatorial candidate will carry the Republican House candidate to victory?

It might help, but Kennedy isn't actually that strong in the district. His best showing ever was 57% in 2002, and that's about equal to what Norm Coleman got and hardly better than what Bush got in 2004. Kennedy has yet to prove he can win a good amount of crossover DFL votes, the main reason I think he's such a weak candidate, since he's going to need those to win.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Donnelly

[Rob]

Hodes, Sestak, and Trauner (wouldn't it be great to see Wyoming turn blue red?)

[MarkWarner08]

I'm looking really hard at the Wyoming race. Hotline says that Cubin's poll numbers are looking soft. They also noted that Trauner's knocked on 13,000 doors -- that kind of retail politics makes a difference in a large, rural state like Wyoming.

This seat is now on my upset radar.