Wisconsin has been decided by less than a point in 4 of last 6 elections. How rare is that?
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  Wisconsin has been decided by less than a point in 4 of last 6 elections. How rare is that?
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Author Topic: Wisconsin has been decided by less than a point in 4 of last 6 elections. How rare is that?  (Read 700 times)
Matty
boshembechle
Junior Chimp
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« on: April 29, 2021, 10:52:51 PM »

What other state has been within a point in 4 of 6 elections? (not talking just about last 6 elections, but ANY string of 6 elections)
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Tartarus Sauce
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« Reply #1 on: May 01, 2021, 06:48:46 PM »

Well Missouri was similar in terms of four elections in a close temporal timeframe with very tight margins.

1952: R+1.57
1956: D+0.22
1960: D+0.52
1968: R+1.13

Also, keep in mind that during the third party system, there were 5 back to back knife fight elections that were anybody's game from 1876-1892 where the PV difference was 3 or less each time, so quite a few states were consistently close throughout this era.

New York
1864: R+0.92
1868: D+1.18
1880: R+1.9
1884: D+0.1
1888: R+1.09

Indiana
1868: R+2.78
1876: D+1.26
1880: R+1.42
1884: D+1.31
1888: R+0.44
1892: D+1.29

New Jersey
1868: D+1.76
1880: D+0.82
1884: D+1.67
1888: D+2.35

California
1868: R+0.48
1876: R+1.8
1880: D+0.09
1888: R+2.82
1892: D+0.05
1896: R+0.64

Connecticut
1864: R+2.76
1868: R+2.98
1876: D+2.37
1880: R+3.01
1884: D+0.94
1888: D+0.22
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Chips
Those Chips
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2 on: May 25, 2021, 12:19:12 AM »

Well Missouri was similar in terms of four elections in a close temporal timeframe with very tight margins.

1952: R+1.57
1956: D+0.22
1960: D+0.52
1968: R+1.13

Also, keep in mind that during the third party system, there were 5 back to back knife fight elections that were anybody's game from 1876-1892 where the PV difference was 3 or less each time, so quite a few states were consistently close throughout this era.

New York
1864: R+0.92
1868: D+1.18
1880: R+1.9
1884: D+0.1
1888: R+1.09

Indiana
1868: R+2.78
1876: D+1.26
1880: R+1.42
1884: D+1.31
1888: R+0.44
1892: D+1.29

New Jersey
1868: D+1.76
1880: D+0.82
1884: D+1.67
1888: D+2.35

California
1868: R+0.48
1876: R+1.8
1880: D+0.09
1888: R+2.82
1892: D+0.05
1896: R+0.64

Connecticut
1864: R+2.76
1868: R+2.98
1876: D+2.37
1880: R+3.01
1884: D+0.94
1888: D+0.22

Very interesting.
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