Could GOP maintain gains among Latinos and win AZ/NV but lose GA/NC by doing worse among black men

[Would vote for Hillary Clinton over Joe Biden.]

This scenario assumes Georgia's (to a lesser extent, North Carolina) urban trends continue to grow, is it possible that GA and NC will vote Democratic even while the Republican candidates (of 2024, or 2028) improves among Latino voters and suburbanites in Arizona and Nevada. Colorado and New Mexico (out west) and Virginia (down south with GA/NC) are gone for Republicans, so let's leave them out of the equation.

[Kuumo]

It's definitely possible that the Republican nominee wins Arizona and Nevada but not Georgia, since the former two could easily swing to the right with continued Hispanic gains while the latter is basically gone for Republicans unless they start doing significantly better with black voters. The less plausible part is Democrats flipping North Carolina because if Democratic suburban support is solid enough to win there, the Democratic nominee would almost certainly win Arizona and Nevada too. The most plausible way for this to happen is if the matchup is Kamala Harris/Roy Cooper vs some Republican with stronger appeal to Mexican Americans but only Trump levels of support in affluent, predominately white suburbs.

[Nightcore Nationalist]

The most plausible way for this to happen is if the matchup is Kamala Harris/Roy Cooper vs some Republican with stronger appeal to Mexican Americans but only Trump levels of support in affluent, predominately white suburbs.

[Qba0202]

If Kamala Harris chooses Castro or Ben Ray Lujan or Henry Cuellar or Linda Sánchez as her running mate, she will definitely win in AZ and NV and if she chooses Cuellar/Castro/O'Rourke (if he wins gubernatorial race), she could win also in TX.

[Utah Neolib]

The most plausible way for this to happen is if the matchup is Kamala Harris/Roy Cooper vs some Republican with stronger appeal to Mexican Americans but only Trump levels of support in affluent, predominately white suburbs.

Rubio?

[Literally Just a Contrarian]

If Kamala Harris chooses Castro or Ben Ray Lujan or Henry Cuellar or Linda Sánchez as her running mate, she will definitely win in AZ and NV and if she chooses Cuellar/Castro/O'Rourke (if he wins gubernatorial race), she could win also in TX.

Um, no.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No, the Ds are ahead on the Generic ballot 47:42 the GOP are gonna lose again and lost the H vote by 5 M votes last time.

1400 Checks were very popular and Warren is promising more in amounts of 500 installments by Xmas Again

R voters got their checks too that's why Biden and or Harris are ahead of DeSantis by double digits

[Vladimir Leninov]

It's definitely possible that the Republican nominee wins Arizona and Nevada but not Georgia, since the former two could easily swing to the right with continued Hispanic gains while the latter is basically gone for Republicans unless they start doing significantly better with black voters. The less plausible part is Democrats flipping North Carolina because if Democratic suburban support is solid enough to win there, the Democratic nominee would almost certainly win Arizona and Nevada too. The most plausible way for this to happen is if the matchup is Kamala Harris/Roy Cooper vs some Republican with stronger appeal to Mexican Americans but only Trump levels of support in affluent, predominately white suburbs.

NC also has a lot of hispanics who Trump did quite well with (43%)

[Xing]

Republicans would need to do a lot more than “maintain” their numbers among Latinos to win NV.

[Devils30]

Entirely possible Dems gain a bit back with AZ, NV Latinos while making no inroads with FL ones. Central American Latinos and Cubans, Venezuleans, Colombians are not monolithic and Dems don't need to act like they are. Good jobs/economy message is much more important.

[beesley]

If Kamala Harris chooses Castro or Ben Ray Lujan or Henry Cuellar or Linda Sánchez as her running mate, she will definitely win in AZ and NV

Only Castro is a remotely credible choice out of these.

[Skill and Chance]

Not at all a crazy outcome.  Biden's team seems to be assuming this to a certain degree.

[Chips]

It is possible.

[Ferguson97]

The most plausible way for this to happen is if the matchup is Kamala Harris/Roy Cooper vs some Republican with stronger appeal to Mexican Americans but only Trump levels of support in affluent, predominately white suburbs.

Rubio?

I was thinking maybe Cruz?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

The most plausible way for this to happen is if the matchup is Kamala Harris/Roy Cooper vs some Republican with stronger appeal to Mexican Americans but only Trump levels of support in affluent, predominately white suburbs.

Rubio?

I was thinking maybe Cruz?

Cruz doesn't strike me as someone who has a lot of hispanic support.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kelly is leading by 10 pts so AZ and GA are gone for the GOP and Sinema is still popular in AZ and she is up for Reelection in 2024, AZ is lost to Rs since Cindy McCain has endorsed Biden

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Like I said, AZ is gone for Rs

[Nightcore Nationalist]

I will say, one of the midterm races I'm anticipating the most is Nevada senate.  The race could tell us whether it will remain a "close" state with a very strong lean for one party (ala FL or NC) or if it finally became a genuine swing state.