1956 without Eisenhower

[TransfemmeGoreVidal]

If Eisenhower died of his heart attack in 1955 or if he survived but decided to not seek reelection because of his health (obviously two different scenarios) what does the 1956 election look like? In the first scenario I can imagine Nixon probably has a fairly easy path to the nomination because of the sympathy factor and wins in 56 with a comfortable margin of victory, though not quite by as much as Ike. In the second he probably would still be the nominee but I could imagine the Democratic field is more competitive and Stevenson probably doesn't get the nomination again since they probably see a fighting chance at winning.

[Sir Mohamed]

Nixon gets the GOP nomination and beats Stevenson with ease in the GE. Doesn't do quite as well as Eisenhower IRL, but it's not close. 1956 with Eisenhower retiring instead of dying in office is more interesting imho. In that scenario, I think Eisenhower would have blocked Nixon's nomination 4 prez. He didn't like his VP that much.



✓ President Richard Nixon (R-CA)/Representative Charles Halleck (R-IN): 383 EVs.; 54.2%
Former Governor Adlai Stevenson (D-IL)/Senator Estes Kefauver (D-TN): 148 EVs.; 44.1%

[TransfemmeGoreVidal]

Nixon gets the GOP nomination and beats Stevenson with ease in the GE. Doesn't do quite as well as Eisenhower IRL, but it's not close. 1956 with Eisenhower retiring instead of dying in office is more interesting imho. In that scenario, I think Eisenhower would have blocked Nixon's nomination 4 prez. He didn't like his VP that much.



✓ President Richard Nixon (R-CA)/Representative Charles Halleck (R-IN): 383 EVs.; 54.2%
Former Governor Adlai Stevenson (D-IL)/Senator Estes Kefauver (D-TN): 148 EVs.; 44.1%

That is a more interesting scenario to me also since you mention it. Partly because who the GOP nominee would even be is an open question. Taft was dead and Goldwater was still a freshman senator so there's no natural leader for the conservatives and liberals like Rockefeller and Romney weren't on the scene yet. Unless Eisenhower backed a designated successor I could see the primaries and convention being a free for all.

[dw93]

Nixon gets the nomination in 56 whether Ike is out due to death or due to declining to seek another term. I don't think there was anyone other than Nixon who could emerge as a consensus Republican nominee in any of these scenarios, hell Nixon being able to bridge ideological divides was at least part of how he got nominated in 1968. As for the general, if Nixon the incumbent who ascended to the Presidency after Ike's death, he wins in a landslide and likely does so against Stevenson. If he's the incumbent VP running with Ike retiring, I think Nixon still wins, but in a closer race against someone like Kefauver or LBJ.

[President Johnson]

Assuming Ike retires (otherwise, Mohamed's map seems accurate):



✓ Vice President Richard M. Nixon (R-CA)/Senator Kenneth Keating (R-NY): 310 EV. (51.28%)
Former Governor Adlai Stevenson (D-IL)/Senator Estes Kefauver (D-TN): 221 EV. (47.09%)

[Chips]

GOP still wins.