Biden +17 and Harris +12 Agains De Santis

[pbrower2a]

Known against unknown. The 45% is a floor for Joe Biden, and so is the 28% for DeSantis.

The negative ads write themselves for DeSantis. Any Republican should be up to 33% or so by now if one has a complete unknown. Three and a half years out, this is a good position for the President. 

[pbrower2a]

Lol polls

Exactly. 2020 Polls said Biden was going to win by Reagan 1980-levels.

Uhh... I see something in common, although there are some differences:

   Ronald Reagan               43,903,230   50.75%   489   90.9%
   James Carter               35,480,115   41.01%   49   9.1%
   John Anderson                     5,719,850   6.61%   0   0.0%



    Joseph R. Biden, Jr.      81,286,358   51.26%   306   56.9%
   Donald J. Trump                 74,225,839   46.80%   232   43.1%

About 41 million American voters had some problem with a Reagan Presidency, and I would say that the 5.7 million voters for Anderson had a problem with both Carter and Reagan. Add the 41.01% of the vote for Carter and the 6.61% of the vote for Anderson and the Reagan landslide of 1980 isn't quite so impressive as the electoral vote suggests.

OK, as usual the Democratic nominee ran up huge percentages of the vote in a comparatively small number of states in 2020 -- which is what Democrats usually do, and which explains how Donald Trump won against Hillary Clinton in 2016.

Ronald Reagan won "only" 255 electoral votes in which he got an absolute majority of the overall vote. OK, he did win fair and square. Reagan won 24 states (all of those having 8 or fewer electoral votes) and ten by 10% or more over Carter. Remove the Anderson votes from the Reagan margin over Carter and the number becomes a less-impressive 27 states won by 10% or more.  Heck, Obama won 20 states by 10% or more in essentially a binary election in 2008.

I could make the case that the differences between 1980 and 2020 were

(1) that Biden ran up the score in the percentage totals in bigger states than did Reagan.
(2) the electorate was more ideologically divided in 2020 than in 1980
(3) there was no third-party nominee taking votes away from the eventual loser in 2020 as there was in 1980, and
(4) the challenger was much closer to losing in 2020 than in 1980.

An even shift of 0.63% in 2020 would have resulted in a 269-269 split in the Electoral College which would have thrown the election to the House of Representatives which Trump would have won. It would have taken about a 5% even swing from Reagan to Carter to allow Carter to win in 1980 had the Anderson vote remained as it was.

We were only an even shift of 0.63% away from the risk of the re-election of the most corrupt, despotic, and devious President ever.


Both had a challenger facing a troubled incumbent, and the challenger won.   

[pbrower2a]

Negative ad for a Democrat against de Santis:

My dad couldn't put up with the lockdown in Michigan. He wanted some fun in the sun. So he went to Florida, where Governor De Santis had no lockdown. He had some fun in the sun, but he came back with COVID-19 and spent two months on a respirator before dying. 

He should have stayed in Michigan.

(Changing the state or the gender will work, too).

[pbrower2a]

Negative ad for a Democrat against de Santis:

My dad couldn't put up with the lockdown in Michigan. He wanted some fun in the sun. So he went to Florida, where Governor De Santis had no lockdown. He had some fun in the sun, but he came back with COVID-19 and spent two months on a respirator before dying. 

He should have stayed in Michigan.

(Changing the state or the gender will work, too).

Florida, despite a large population of people who are by far the most vulnerable, is 28th in per capita deaths. Guess what number 1 and 2 are? Oh yeah, deep blue New Jersey and New York with their liberal Democrat governors who forced COVID-positive patients into nursing homes.

Seriously, quit spreading this BS. DeSantis did great on COVID, and I'm sorry you can't accept that. DeSantis derangement syndrome is a thing.

Florida has old white people, but the rest of the population skews young. COVID-19 tends to kill older adults.  I am not so sure on what it does to non-old adults. It does organ damage and causes diabetes.

It's the cities that have the great international airports that got hit hard and early... San Francisco, Los Angeles, New York, Chicago, Detroit, Atlanta, Miami.  For Greater New York, COVID-19 rode jetliners back from Europe, hopped the subway, and got everywhere in NYC Subway workers got hit hard and early. In Greater Detroit it was the police.

COVID-19 will have a different story where it kills. It could be overcrowded food-packing places in the Midwest. 

[pbrower2a]

We thought that respiratory diseases were Third World issues. Because they don't strike the upper classes even of poor countries except as pneumonia when something else (cancer, organ failure, and brain deterioration) is already killing someone, most people in the First World think that those diseases are licked once and for all. Then comes COVID-19, which found its way into one category of elite people in all parts of the world ("frequent flyers" who tend to skew old, mobile, and active) who can become the unwitting "Typhoid Mary" types in our time.

We know otherwise now. COVID-19 evolved perfectly. Like the plagues that traveled with the fast-moving Mongol horsemen who reached as far east as Korea and as far west as Poland, and as far south as India, COVID-19 exploited the fastest travel of the time.

Some places met the Crisis better than others. Some, like New York City, got hit before the public figures could do anything effective.

From the air terminal the plague spread through subways and other mass transit... and in Greater Detroit, the police. Religious gatherings had viral congregants infecting human participants. Go to Lourdes in expectation of a miracle, and you get a disaster. Go to Qom (the "Shiite Rome", hear clergy denounce the Great Satan (the USA) and the Lesser Satan (Israel), and get a lethal virus -- the more insidious, microscopic Satan.