Biden +17 and Harris +12 Agains De Santis

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1387462049828061196
Pretty meaningless this far out but an indicator that Ron De Santis being some sort of electoral powerhouse isn't actually true.

[Matty]

Not directed at you, but what a stupid poll

[AGA]

Probably because DeSantis doesn't have enough name recognition.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

For the sake of comparison
https://www.politico.com/story/2017/11/15/biden-trump-2020-elections-244900

[Chips]

Probably because DeSantis doesn't have enough name recognition.

This.

[Pericles]

Too many undecideds. The main value is comparing Biden vs Harris, given she both loses support and DeSantis gains it that suggests she might actually be less appealing than Biden (though it's unclear whether Biden is still in the honeymoon period and winning over Republicans who will never actually vote for him, or if the difference is actual swing voters), and shows that Biden being able to run for re-election is the best-case scenario. It's very early though.

[Inmate Trump]

I do think Biden would edge out a win, but I think this poll is purely a name recognition issue.

[ajc0918]

DeSantis is overhyped.

[Sir Mohamed]

It's early, way too many undecideds, DeSantis hasn't that much name recognition and it's a nationwide poll while the election gets decided in battleground states. Said poll means absolutely nothing.

[Wormless Gourd]

Bad poll but the most interesting nuggets are DeSantis leads the R field over Pence and his favorability is very polarized, though the largest chunk don't know/no opinion still.

[One Term Floridian]

DeSantis is much more likely to be picked as Trump’s 2024 VP imo

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

hahahaha

[OSR stands with Israel]

For the sake of comparison
https://www.politico.com/story/2017/11/15/biden-trump-2020-elections-244900

Biden was the Vice President of the US , DeSantis is a governor so this isn’t really a equal comparison lol

[Thunder98]

Lol polls

[DabbingSanta]

The real story is that Biden is only at 45% against a relatively unknown Republican.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The real story is that Biden is only at 45% against a relatively unknown Republican.

Low name ID is disproportionately hurting DeSantis here, but I suspect it's slightly depressing Biden's share, too. Some certain Biden/Harris voters are saying they're undecided, and holding out for a DeSantis that doesn't actually exist.

[President Johnson]

Utterly worthless with that amount of undecideds and so early.

[DCUS]

You could've said the exact same thing about Reagan or Bill Clinton.

If anything, the fact that an incumbent is only +17 this early against an opponent with medium name recognition is concerning.

[TodayJunior]

DeSantis is much more likely to be picked as Trump’s 2024 VP imo

the President and the VP candidates can't be from the same state, can they? Anyhoo...garbage polling. DeSantis will be lucky to hold on to his seat next year (against Nikki Freid) most likely.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Besides the fact that this poll is trash, I do think DeSantis is overhyped. I get the feeling he's this cycle's Marco Rubio.

[pbrower2a]

Known against unknown. The 45% is a floor for Joe Biden, and so is the 28% for DeSantis.

The negative ads write themselves for DeSantis. Any Republican should be up to 33% or so by now if one has a complete unknown. Three and a half years out, this is a good position for the President. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why are we even discussing DeSantis, he doesn't connect with Afro Americans like Trump doesn't and he loses 15 Percent and you have to win Afro Americans in PA, WI, and MI the rust belt

That's why he did so poorly against Gillium

Biden is at 53/47, an INCUMBENT doesn't lose if he is above 50

Biden only needs 278 he will win the blue wall Against Trump or DeSantis

[Nyssus]

I understand the sentiment of wanting information, although, to be frank, polls 3 years out are utterly meaningless, especially when they have as many undecideds as this poll does. Remember the polls in 2017 that showed Biden winning the 2020 election by 11 points? In a national environment as polarized as the environment we live in today, such a victory is virtually impossible.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's early, way too many undecideds, DeSantis hasn't that much name recognition and it's a nationwide poll while the election gets decided in battleground states. Said poll means absolutely nothing.

Why are you a DeSantis apologist

[pbrower2a]

Lol polls

Exactly. 2020 Polls said Biden was going to win by Reagan 1980-levels.

Uhh... I see something in common, although there are some differences:

   Ronald Reagan               43,903,230   50.75%   489   90.9%
   James Carter               35,480,115   41.01%   49   9.1%
   John Anderson                     5,719,850   6.61%   0   0.0%



    Joseph R. Biden, Jr.      81,286,358   51.26%   306   56.9%
   Donald J. Trump                 74,225,839   46.80%   232   43.1%

About 41 million American voters had some problem with a Reagan Presidency, and I would say that the 5.7 million voters for Anderson had a problem with both Carter and Reagan. Add the 41.01% of the vote for Carter and the 6.61% of the vote for Anderson and the Reagan landslide of 1980 isn't quite so impressive as the electoral vote suggests.

OK, as usual the Democratic nominee ran up huge percentages of the vote in a comparatively small number of states in 2020 -- which is what Democrats usually do, and which explains how Donald Trump won against Hillary Clinton in 2016.

Ronald Reagan won "only" 255 electoral votes in which he got an absolute majority of the overall vote. OK, he did win fair and square. Reagan won 24 states (all of those having 8 or fewer electoral votes) and ten by 10% or more over Carter. Remove the Anderson votes from the Reagan margin over Carter and the number becomes a less-impressive 27 states won by 10% or more.  Heck, Obama won 20 states by 10% or more in essentially a binary election in 2008.

I could make the case that the differences between 1980 and 2020 were

(1) that Biden ran up the score in the percentage totals in bigger states than did Reagan.
(2) the electorate was more ideologically divided in 2020 than in 1980
(3) there was no third-party nominee taking votes away from the eventual loser in 2020 as there was in 1980, and
(4) the challenger was much closer to losing in 2020 than in 1980.

An even shift of 0.63% in 2020 would have resulted in a 269-269 split in the Electoral College which would have thrown the election to the House of Representatives which Trump would have won. It would have taken about a 5% even swing from Reagan to Carter to allow Carter to win in 1980 had the Anderson vote remained as it was.

We were only an even shift of 0.63% away from the risk of the re-election of the most corrupt, despotic, and devious President ever.


Both had a challenger facing a troubled incumbent, and the challenger won.