A Washington Post Article argues that Trump didnt make much inroads with White Working Class voters

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/04/14/trump-didnt-bring-white-working-class-voters-republican-party-data-suggest-he-kept-them-away/


This article has two graphics as well:







So I think two things about this and that is :


1. Exit Poll data could be unreliable in things such as this

2. While Trump didnt make gains nationally with White Working Class voters he certainly did in the Midwest while Mitt Romney for example were much more concentrated in the South and West where he may have even done better with those voters than Trump did but failed in the Midwest. There is even an article from 2012 that points this out


https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2012/11/obamas-support-in-rust-belt-sun-belt-very-different/429300/

In Rustbelt battlegrounds with smaller minority populations, like Iowa, Wisconsin, and above all Ohio, Obama is clinging to a narrow advantage behind strong support from those same upscale white women-and a better performance among working-class whites, especially women, than anywhere else in the country.

In essence, in the Sunbelt, Obama is relying on the new Democratic coalition of minorities, young people and upscale whites, while in the Rustbelt he is depending on support that much more closely resembles the traditional New Deal coalition that Democrats mobilized from the 1930s to the 1960s.

[Geoffrey Howe]

This is an interesting find. I can't really comment on the veracity of the infographics, but I find it likely that he increased white working-class turnout; since this was already a Republican group, that helped his margins.

[Skill and Chance]

Interesting.  If this is accurate, the big movement happened in 2012 (!).  Trump was basically in line with Romney when compared to the NPV result.

[Non Swing Voter]

2008 was a blowout election so I'm not surprised the Republicans improved in 2012.  When you factor that in the variations probably look like noise.  GOP is just gradually increasing its share of the gradually shrinking white working class vote.

[Orser67]

When this article came out a couple weeks ago, it got a bit of pushback on Twitter from people whose opinions I generally respect. E.g.:

https://twitter.com/davidshor/status/1382397535013208064

Part of the issue is defining the "white working class" isn't necessarily straightforward. The authors define as non-college educated white voters in the bottom half of household income, and while I think that's a reasonable definition, it also probably leaves out a decent number of people who would generally seem like part of the wwc in the popular imagination, and includes a decent number of people who don't.

[DS0816]

2008 was a blowout election so I'm not surprised the Republicans improved in 2012.  …

2008 was not a blowout.

Carriage of 28 states, which are 56 percent of the nation’s states, cannot be described as a “blowout.”

Blowouts include 1936 Franklin Roosevelt (carriage of 46 of 48 states) and both 1972 Richard Nixon and 1984 Ronald Reagan (both with carriage of 49 of 50 states).

Those are examples of blowouts.

2012 Barack Obama underperformed his first-term result with re-election. His high mark was Election 2008. Nearly everything afterward, while he held office, was reduced electoral support for the Democrats. (Exception: 2012 U.S. Senate.)

[Epaminondas]

2008 was a blowout election so I'm not surprised the Republicans improved in 2012.  …

2008 was not a blowout.

Carriage of 28 states, which are 56 percent of the nation’s states, cannot be described as a “blowout.”

Blowouts include 1936 Franklin Roosevelt (carriage of 46 of 48 states) and both 1972 Richard Nixon and 1984 Ronald Reagan (both with carriage of 49 of 50 states).
(Exception: 2012 U.S. Senate.)

I don't think that word means what you think it means.

And yes, 2008 was a blowout for our partisan times, see Indiana, Obama's win in.
Since 1997 Fox News has brainwashed 40% of US voters into electing the GOP even if it cost them their family.
FDR reborn couldn't crack 55% after losing the White nativists.

[pbrower2a]

2008 was a blowout election so I'm not surprised the Republicans improved in 2012.  …

2008 was not a blowout.

Carriage of 28 states, which are 56 percent of the nation’s states, cannot be described as a “blowout.”

Blowouts include 1936 Franklin Roosevelt (carriage of 46 of 48 states) and both 1972 Richard Nixon and 1984 Ronald Reagan (both with carriage of 49 of 50 states).

Those are examples of blowouts.

2012 Barack Obama underperformed his first-term result with re-election. His high mark was Election 2008. Nearly everything afterward, while he held office, was reduced electoral support for the Democrats. (Exception: 2012 U.S. Senate.)

2008 was a blowout for Obama in some states, but against him in others. Obama won Michigan in 2008 by about the margin by which Reagan did in 1984. The problem was that he lost like McGovern in the Mountaqin and Deep South.

[SInNYC]

So if the graph is correct, the WWC vote was essentially about 50-52% republican from 1980-2004, with a significant chunk deserting (likely to Perot) in 92-96. They saw hope in Obama after the great recession but quickly got disenchanted with him and have been in the high 50s for Rs since then, Trump or otherwise.

This is very believable, though a southern vs non-southern WWC breakdown would probably be useful too.