French presidential election, 2022

[Zinneke]

  What would be considered the most far right, or fascist, or extremist or otherwise horrible policy proposals that MLP proposed in her current campaign or that her party has in its platform? 

Kicking immigrants out of social housing with immediate effect.

[Hash]

I'm guessing "ouvrier" effectively means "independent contractor" (which is different from employee, licensed professional, or executive/business owner), "Bac +2" = "some college", and "Bac +3 etc." = "college graduate"?

No, 'ouvrier' means skilled and unskilled manual workers in industry, crafts/trades and agriculture and is a broad category which includes carpenters, masons, fitters, electricians, plumbers, production line workers, equipment operators, warehouse staff (packers, handlers, logistics etc.), mechanics, repairmen, welders, bakers, butchers, cooks, drivers, truckers, taxi drivers, longshoremen, unskilled manual workers, maintenance workers, sanitation workers and agricultural workers including fishermen and forestry workers. It is an overwhelmingly male-dominated category (79%).

Employees are, basically, the female half of the modern working-class (it is 75% female) and includes public and private sector employees like administrative assistants, office workers, salespersons, service workers, cashiers, waitresses, retail employees, support staff, caregivers, servers, personal care workers, estheticians, salaried hairdressers, housekeepers and so forth. These are jobs which don't usually require a university degree, and in the public sector they're mostly classified in the lowest categories. It also includes enlisted police, firefighters and military.

Both are usually grouped together as lower socio-professional categories (CSP-): the levels of education and earnings of both groups are similar (the lowest levels of educational achievement, although employees are more likely to have a high school diploma or even some post-secondary education or professional certificate, than workers, and workers are more likely to have no degree). All workers and employees are salaried: none are self-employed, those like masons, craftsmen, carpenters etc. who are self-employed are counted in another category by Insee.

Professions intermédiaires are 'intermediate-grade occupations' and include nurses, school teachers, social workers, some accountants, foremen, technicians, educators, sales reps, supervisors, executive assistants, middle manager types, small store managers and others. These are middle-class jobs and the majority have some sort of post-secondary education.

Cadres is a term which is hard to translate but broadly refers to white-collar senior professionals, experts, executives and senior/upper-level managers (except CEOs which are classified as artisans, commerçants et chefs d'entreprise). This statistical category includes engineers, middle and high school (collège and lycée) teachers, university professors, school directors, researchers, journalists, artists and a number of jobs which require significant expertise (engineers, auditors, financial analysts, economists, jurists, scientists, senior accountants etc.) and 'liberal professions' like lawyers, notaries, doctors (GPs and specialists), dentists, veterinarians, independent consultants, pharmacists and architects. These are senior middle or upper middle-class occupations which pay well and require the highest levels of qualifications (i.e. post-secondary education at least, often a doctorate or masters).

What you had in mind would be seen under employment status (salaried, self-employed/independent, inactive etc).

A lot of people will note that while these Insee socioprofessional categories are still pretty ingrained in the popular mindset, they've remained largely static (at the top levels) since 1982, and perhaps are an increasingly poor reflection of today's economy and labour market.

Bac +2 basically means a high school diploma (Bac) plus two years of post-secondary education: for most older people (i.e. graduated before the LMD reform in 2006) this means a 'first cycle' (bachelor's) degree (DEUG), as well as anyone with a two-year post-secondary education diploma - usually vocational/trades/professional education giving a DUT (tertiary technical university education), BTS (technician/skilled trades degree) and DEUST.

Bac +3 etc. means anyone with a high school diploma and at least three years of post-secondary education: for younger people this includes a bachelor's degree after the LMD reform, and anything above that (masters and doctorate, Bac +5 and +8), as well as diplomas required for certain occupations.

French Wikipedia has a list of diplomas and levels in France: https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liste_des_dipl%C3%B4mes_en_France

When I zoom in to Moselle, I see that most communes have gone to Le Pen, but there is a contiguous north-south corridor for Macron in the Western part, which broadly follows the A31 highway from Luxembourg all the way down south. It contains the area of Metz - it is obvious why it voted for Macron - but also some (post) industrial areas with small towns in the border area (Thionville and surroundings) that voted for Macron quite strongly, which I didn't expect. Does anyone knowledgeable about French politics know why this specific part voted for Macron? It's somewhat counter-intuitive to me. Commuters to Luxembourg, perhaps?

Yes, definitely - there are a lot of cross-border commuters to Luxembourg in the Thionville region, and extending in the north of Meurthe-et-Moselle (Longwy, Mont-Saint-Martin, Villerupt), making up a majority of the employed active population in communes like Audun-le-Tiche, Villerupt, Volmerange-les-Mines and other smaller communes along the border as well as around 39% of the employed in Thionville. A lot of these were indeed former industrial (mining and steel industry) areas - some former PCF/left-wing strongholds - which fell on hard times in the 1970s, but their economic reconversion has been more successful thanks to cross-border commuters - which has resulted in positive demographic growth in some (though not all) communes, higher incomes (from more white-collar jobs) and levels of education compared to surrounding regions (like the Fensch, Moselle and Orne valleys) and higher housing prices. We shouldn't generalize too much: the larger cities, notably Longwy, Mont-Saint-Martin and Villerupt, are still pretty poor with high unemployment and low-income concentrations (all three, old left-wing strongholds with a PCF tradition, voted for Mélenchon as did Audun-le-Tiche). But yes, cross-border commuters are definitely the explanation here (as well as in other places with a lot of cross-border commuters, like the Swiss commuters in the Ain and Haute-Savoie), and you'll notice that Macron had already placed first in those communes in the first round.

Also, I'm just going to assume that eastern section of the city, where Le Pen won arrondissements here and in round 1, is wealthy and historically Pied Noir?

No, definitely not on the former. She won the 10th and 11th arrondissements of Marseille, which mostly corresponds to the Huveaune valley, an old industrial working-class valley which had lots of factories and small industries in the past and is now a collection of lower middle-class individual (single-family homes) residential neighbourhoods (Saint-Marcel, Saint-Loup, La Pomme etc.) and some grands ensembles/cités (like Air-Bel) with large immigrant populations, although the immigrant, particularly Arab/Muslim immigrant population, isn't as big in this part of Marseille as in the north and centre. It isn't the poorest area of Marseille, nor is it by any distance among the wealthiest areas: and these lower middle-class, peripheral/suburban areas are where Panzergirl continues to perform very well.

Panzergirl, both in the first round and in the runoff, performed best in the old individual residential neighbourhoods, some of which are adjacent to social/low-income housing (HLM) blocks - research in Marseille has shown that the far-right is a boosted a bit by proximity to a cité with large immigrant populations and bad reputations for criminality, drug trafficking etc. (particularly in the north but likely applies here too). Naturally, Mélenchon won the cités and their immigrant populations by huge margins - around 65% in Air-Bel for example - and Macron carried those with very big margins (75% in Air-Bel) but much, much lower turnout (below 50% in many precincts), and Mélenchon/Macron and now Macron also won the parts of the 10th arrondissement which are closer to central Marseille (and are closer to its demographics).

The 11th arrondissement in its eastern end includes some old hilly villages and neighbourhoods with private gated houses which are wealthier and where Panzergirl and Macron (who inherited the mainstream right's support) were more evenly matched.

The wealthiest areas of Marseille are located primarily in the 7th and 8th arrondissements (Macron won 66.1% and 64.6% in these two old fortresses of the right in Marseille), and there are some quite well-off areas in the central 6th arrondissement (74.1% Macron) and suburban 12th (53%). Macron clearly won the city's wealthiest areas, usually by a significant margin, and Panzergirl actually underperformed the far-right's first round totals (her, Zemmour and NDA) in some of these precincts (same story as in Paris).

It's definitely quite interesting that Panzergirl's victories in Marseille were the 10th and 11th, rather than the 13th in the north (50.5% Macron), which forms part of the municipal sector which the FN (led by senator Stéphane Ravier, who defected to Zemmour) held between 2014 and 2020. Despite the high abstention, the much larger immigrant (Arab/Muslim) population in the north still turned out enough for Macron to get him victories (which were quite big - 59-60% - in the 14th and 15th arrondissements which have the most immigrants).

As for Pieds-Noirs, I personally feel as if we kind of overly exaggerate their continued importance, as if they could serve as a simple all-encompassing explanation, but I digress. In Marseille, the Pied Noir population largely settled outside of the old central core, particularly in the 8th, 9th, 10th, 13th, 14th and 15th arrondissements and particularly in areas like La Panouse, Sainte-Marguerite and large post-war residential developments like the famous La Rouvière - this Nouvel Obs article from 2012 described it as the 'last pied noir stronghold' (La Rouvière narrowly voted Macron in the runoff, who won 2 of its 3 precincts).

[Oryxslayer]

A improved and better map of the second round vote by constituency when compared to the one I did in haste over breakfast. Now featuring margins. Once again, Le Pen won 158 constituencies according to the preliminary results, Macron won 418, and the preliminary results surprisingly say that one single seat ended up tied.

[DL]

What’s with that one big patch of blue on the east side of La Grande Couronne?

[Oryxslayer]

What’s with that one big patch of blue on the east side of La Grande Couronne?

I'm sure someone with more knowledge can speak more definitively, but the east of the Grande Couronne is the Seine-et-Marne department. This is true suburbia is the classic sense of the word, with sprawl not just from the overall metro but also in-metro spillover from adjacent parts of the Petite Couronne. It is historically one of the LR parts of Ile-de-France, but to a different extent than Yvelines and the western sprawl. Yvelines was one of Macron's best departments in the country in both rounds, Seine-et-Marne was his weakest in Ile-de-France. Yvelines went all in for LREM in the 2017 legislatives, Seine-et-Marne was divided between LREM and LR+, dividing between the west closest to the city and the east. This is the one part of Ile-de-France, as shown by her win in the 4th constituency, where Le Pen won a large number of communes. However, the population of the department is so heavily slated towards the western areas nearer to Paris that all the other seats presently held by LR+ went marginally for Macron. The 4th appears to have little of the nearer suburbs, and therefore unintentionally appears to have become a 'pack,' to borrow terms from redistricting.

[Hash]

Winner by constituency (%)



Winner by constituency (margin)

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

I'm guessing "ouvrier" effectively means "independent contractor" (which is different from employee, licensed professional, or executive/business owner), "Bac +2" = "some college", and "Bac +3 etc." = "college graduate"?

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

No, 'ouvrier' means skilled and unskilled manual workers in industry, crafts/trades and agriculture and is a broad category which includes carpenters, masons, fitters, electricians, plumbers, production line workers, equipment operators, warehouse staff (packers, handlers, logistics etc.), mechanics, repairmen, welders, bakers, butchers, cooks, drivers, truckers, taxi drivers, longshoremen, unskilled manual workers, maintenance workers, sanitation workers and agricultural workers including fishermen and forestry workers. It is an overwhelmingly male-dominated category (79%).

Employees are, basically, the female half of the modern working-class (it is 75% female) and includes public and private sector employees like administrative assistants, office workers, salespersons, service workers, cashiers, waitresses, retail employees, support staff, caregivers, servers, personal care workers, estheticians, salaried hairdressers, housekeepers and so forth. These are jobs which don't usually require a university degree, and in the public sector they're mostly classified in the lowest categories. It also includes enlisted police, firefighters and military.

Both are usually grouped together as lower socio-professional categories (CSP-): the levels of education and earnings of both groups are similar (the lowest levels of educational achievement, although employees are more likely to have a high school diploma or even some post-secondary education or professional certificate, than workers, and workers are more likely to have no degree). All workers and employees are salaried: none are self-employed, those like masons, craftsmen, carpenters etc. who are self-employed are counted in another category by Insee.

Professions intermédiaires are 'intermediate-grade occupations' and include nurses, school teachers, social workers, some accountants, foremen, technicians, educators, sales reps, supervisors, executive assistants, middle manager types, small store managers and others. These are middle-class jobs and the majority have some sort of post-secondary education.

Cadres is a term which is hard to translate but broadly refers to white-collar senior professionals, experts, executives and senior/upper-level managers (except CEOs which are classified as artisans, commerçants et chefs d'entreprise). This statistical category includes engineers, middle and high school (collège and lycée) teachers, university professors, school directors, researchers, journalists, artists and a number of jobs which require significant expertise (engineers, auditors, financial analysts, economists, jurists, scientists, senior accountants etc.) and 'liberal professions' like lawyers, notaries, doctors (GPs and specialists), dentists, veterinarians, independent consultants, pharmacists and architects. These are senior middle or upper middle-class occupations which pay well and require the highest levels of qualifications (i.e. post-secondary education at least, often a doctorate or masters).

What you had in mind would be seen under employment status (salaried, self-employed/independent, inactive etc).

A lot of people will note that while these Insee socioprofessional categories are still pretty ingrained in the popular mindset, they've remained largely static (at the top levels) since 1982, and perhaps are an increasingly poor reflection of today's economy and labour market.

Bac +2 basically means a high school diploma (Bac) plus two years of post-secondary education: for most older people (i.e. graduated before the LMD reform in 2006) this means a 'first cycle' (bachelor's) degree (DEUG), as well as anyone with a two-year post-secondary education diploma - usually vocational/trades/professional education giving a DUT (tertiary technical university education), BTS (technician/skilled trades degree) and DEUST.

Bac +3 etc. means anyone with a high school diploma and at least three years of post-secondary education: for younger people this includes a bachelor's degree after the LMD reform, and anything above that (masters and doctorate, Bac +5 and +8), as well as diplomas required for certain occupations.

French Wikipedia has a list of diplomas and levels in France: https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liste_des_dipl%C3%B4mes_en_France

So basically ouvrier = manual working class, employé = non-manual working class, professions intermédiaires = most of the lower-middle class, and cadres superieurs = professional upper-middle class + more senior/prestigious lower-middle class occupations

Bac +2 = college grads older than 35 or so + some college, Bac +3 = college grads under 35 + everyone who has postgrad education

[America Needs R'hllor]

Pretty fascinating to see this result among voters that gave Eric Zemmour a victory:

https://twitter.com/LahavHarkov/status/1518520832779296770?t=wzRvxrZnJsfzJqCMR7_...

https://twitter.com/julienbahloul/status/1518479856476078082?t=4C-X6yIo9T-tBa0tI...

[EastAnglianLefty]

What distinguishes the Macron constituency on Reunion from the rest of the island?

[afleitch]

Scotland;

Macron 91.44%

[adma]

Scotland;

Macron 91.44%

MacRon?  McRon?

It's like people in Ireland supporting O'Bama...

[Tintrlvr]

What distinguishes the Macron constituency on Reunion from the rest of the island?

It's the wealthier western side of the capital Saint-Denis.

[parochial boy]

What’s with that one big patch of blue on the east side of La Grande Couronne?

I'm sure someone with more knowledge can speak more definitively, but the east of the Grande Couronne is the Seine-et-Marne department. This is true suburbia is the classic sense of the word, with sprawl not just from the overall metro but also in-metro spillover from adjacent parts of the Petite Couronne. It is historically one of the LR parts of Ile-de-France, but to a different extent than Yvelines and the western sprawl. Yvelines was one of Macron's best departments in the country in both rounds, Seine-et-Marne was his weakest in Ile-de-France. Yvelines went all in for LREM in the 2017 legislatives, Seine-et-Marne was divided between LREM and LR+, dividing between the west closest to the city and the east. This is the one part of Ile-de-France, as shown by her win in the 4th constituency, where Le Pen won a large number of communes. However, the population of the department is so heavily slated towards the western areas nearer to Paris that all the other seats presently held by LR+ went marginally for Macron. The 4th appears to have little of the nearer suburbs, and therefore unintentionally appears to have become a 'pack,' to borrow terms from redistricting.

Seine-et-Marne is like all them, pretty socially mixed. It has some difficult tower-block style banlieues (eg Chelles) as well as some very deirable commuter towns (Fontainebleau) and a few, what you might call sink holes like Montereau-Fault-Yonne that were essentially vaguely unpleasant cités built so as to displace working class Parisians miles away from the city to distant satellite towns with limited job prospects or public services and all the predictable tensions that has caused. Not that this was a uniquely French mistake though.

But broadly, yeah, Seine-et-Marne is classic périurbain. Or to put it more succinctly, the sort of périurbain that you don't want to live in. If you ever drive or get the train through it; especially the more rural eastern side of it; you basically go past a series of big, flat, empty fields. Not much to look at, not much going on there, really not inspiring. That contrasts quite wildly to the Yvelines, which while still having it's own social problems; is a land of much more cutesy villages and landscapes. For example the really quite attractive Chevreuse valley.

Overall, a lot of the IdF's voting behaviours can be boiled down to these two maps:

The first is simply showing which income groups are overrepresented by commune across the region. Quite clearly, the 77 (oops, got my numbers wrong) is the land of middle-lower middle incomes


The second is a little bit out of date (2008), certain processes like the gentrification of certain Seine-Saint-Denis communes like Montreuil and to a lesser extent Aubervilliers have rather moved on since then, but basically showing which social groups predominate where. The blues and purples showing the better off, and the yellows and reds showing the more down at heel.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Vélizy does stand out as noticeably more middle-class than its very upscale surroundings. I guess that matches my experience there, though it's still hard not to think of it as part of the wealthy Greater Western Paris.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Pretty fascinating to see this result among voters that gave Eric Zemmour a victory:

snip

Well, the reason is obvious (though, given some things Zemmour has said, perhaps it shouldn't be)

[Hash]

What’s with that one big patch of blue on the east side of La Grande Couronne?

I'm sure someone with more knowledge can speak more definitively, but the east of the Grande Couronne is the Seine-et-Marne department. This is true suburbia is the classic sense of the word, with sprawl not just from the overall metro but also in-metro spillover from adjacent parts of the Petite Couronne. It is historically one of the LR parts of Ile-de-France, but to a different extent than Yvelines and the western sprawl. Yvelines was one of Macron's best departments in the country in both rounds, Seine-et-Marne was his weakest in Ile-de-France. Yvelines went all in for LREM in the 2017 legislatives, Seine-et-Marne was divided between LREM and LR+, dividing between the west closest to the city and the east. This is the one part of Ile-de-France, as shown by her win in the 4th constituency, where Le Pen won a large number of communes. However, the population of the department is so heavily slated towards the western areas nearer to Paris that all the other seats presently held by LR+ went marginally for Macron. The 4th appears to have little of the nearer suburbs, and therefore unintentionally appears to have become a 'pack,' to borrow terms from redistricting.

I don't have much to add to parochialboy's post here - yes, Seine-et-Marne is essentially the classic périurbain (although not all of them commute to Paris), but it's socially mixed and not really remarkable in any direction. I like the description of the 'land of middle-lower middle incomes'.

As for Panzergirl's support in Seine-et-Marne, ever since 2012 there's been a lot of attention being paid to the far-right's support in the périurbain and 'banlieue pavillonnaires' - I remember that her strong support already at the time in places like Seine-et-Marne fueled a brief media obsession, after they had moved on from their obsession with Hénin-Beaumont, and a lot was written about it. Not all of it good, and a lot was thinly-veiled patronizing nonsense from well-heeled urban elites who think that suburbia and sprawl is the devil (perhaps they're not wrong). Some depicted the périurbain in opposition to the expensive and elite-dominated city centres and the infamous banlieues and what they invoke (insecurity, crime, social problems, high immigration), and that therefore the far-right's support there comes from sentiments of social and cultural insecurity.

Some have distinguished between the 'chosen' périurbain and the 'suffered' périurbain, the former being attractive areas where one choses to live whereas the latter are much less attractive, peripheral and perhaps more distant suburbia where one is 'forced' or compelled to move, perhaps because of white flight or fears about inner-city criminality or socioeconomic considerations like the problems of housing unaffordability in Paris and its inner suburbs. It's perhaps a bit of an arbitrary divide which in reality might be much more blurry, but it has some value: and in electoral terms, what one imagines as the 'chosen' périurbain (in the Parisian case places like the Yvelines) is very weak for Panzergirl, whereas she's much more successful in the 'suffered' périurbain. And there's more of the latter in Seine-et-Marne.

For over 10 years now, several regular analyses by Ifop's electoral/political analysts have calculated the far-right vote on the basis of a commune's geographic distance, in kilometres, to a large metropolitan centre. Since 2012, Panzergirl's vote has been highest in areas located 30 to 50 km away from a large urban centre. Her father's vote in 2002 was strongest about 20-40 km away from urban centres, while in 1995 he was strongest even closer to the cores (peaking at 10-30 km), following what has been one of the most notable shifts in the far-right's vote in its history since the 1980s: its substantial dropoff in the cores of all urban centres (until Zemmour's map showed us, hilariously, that there's still appetite for another sort of far-right rhetoric in some of those places...). Here is the graphic for this year:



Panzergirl now peaks in areas located between 30 and 60 km away from large metropolitan centres, and remains very strong up to 90 km away. Interestingly, Macron's vote is not as correlated with distance (unlike, I believe, in 2017 and even 2019 EP), although he naturally does best in cities themselves (the 0-10 km range).

Now, of course, this analysis can be overly simplistic and mechanistic - it tries to use data and numbers alone to explain something which cannot be understood well at all with just numbers and data. It also ignores that not all places located, say, 30 km away from a city are the same - one commune might be an old industrial centre with a working poor population and a big HLM cité, while another the same distance away might be a pleasant, affluent commune. But it does have some value, and it is a good basic starting point to explain far-right support.

In Seine-et-Marne (and elsewhere in the outer periphery including Essonne, Yvelines etc.), Panzergirl now does best outside of the populated centres (which primarily voted for Macron and Mélenchon, and then almost uniformly - on the surface - for Macron), in more little-known and unremarkable areas, in the periphery. In Seine-et-Marne, the largest places which Panzergirl won in the runoff are Nangis (51.5%), Saint-Pathus (58.2%) Souppes-sur-Loing (53.4%) Mormant (57.4%), Boissy-le-Châtel (57.7%) and La Ferté-Gaucher (59.1%) and came close in Coulommiers (47.3%), Provins (47.3%), La Ferté-sous-Jouarre (49.7%), Nemours (45.9%) and Dammartin-en-Goële (47.7%). But she did even better, with results over 60%, in smaller communes/villages with fewer than 1,000 people.

These are all relatively small towns (Nangis has about 8,700 people), the vast majority of them have seen significant population growth and more recent developments of single-family pavillons (American suburbia but French) coexist with the old village centres. There's some debate over whether the far-right vote comes from the old 'native' population or the more recent movers (or both?). All have large CSP- (workers and employees) populations (and few senior professionals and managers), most of the employed population commutes some distance to another commune although not all of them, by far, commute to work outside of the department, all have lower levels of education (not many university graduates) but they do differ in their incomes and social makeup: some of the larger communes like Nangis (which had a high Mélenchon vote) and Lizy-sur-Ourcq (small industrial centres with HLMs) are pretty poor, others appear as more humdrum 'middle-lower middle incomes'/lower middle-class but not poor - although none of the places where Panzergirl does well are very wealthy. And when you look at a map of housing prices, she does best in those places where prices are the cheapest - while Macron does best where housing prices are the highest.

Obviously, French suburbia as elsewhere is very much car-dependent (despite dumb American Twitter's notion that Europe is a wondrous land with public transit absolutely everywhere), so issues like fuel prices and cost of living are going to be very important preoccupations, perhaps even more than elsewhere. Some analysis by Ifop (from 2014 and 2019) in Seine-et-Marne specifically both suggest that the far-right does better in communes without a RER/Transilien station and therefore more isolated from the transportation network, although this isn't a perfect correlation (but public transit usage for workplace mobility is more closely correlated with the RER network, and Panzergirl does poorly in those far more urban and dense places).

Basically, Panzergirl's support comes from the increasingly distant urban periphery - places which aren't urban, but are in contact with the urban world, but which can't be described as rural either (because agriculture is no longer a major employer) - exurbia or rurban areas, I guess. The kind of rather 'forgotten' or overlooked place, where a lot of the gilets jaunes movement came from, which isn't necessarily poor/very poor but isn't wealthy, and where main concerns would usually include cost of living, fuel prices and criminality (influenced by perceptions over the rise of petty crimes locally, or perhaps the fear of seeing the 'banlieue' criminality problems, relayed by the media, come to their region). This isn't unique to Seine-et-Marne, far from it: you can see it elsewhere in Ile-de-France (just less obvious to the naked eye because kind of swamped by other areas less favourable to her) and in other regions, like northern Gironde, where Panzergirl is doing extremely well.

[adma]

In some ways, Seine-et-Marne is midway btw/ a Val d'Oise sort of place and an Oise sort of place.

[homelycooking]

Apologies to Hash for ripping off his basemap. This is a comparison of the 2012 and 2022 2nd rounds.

Roughly speaking:

Bright pink: Hollande -> Le Pen
Bright cyan: Sarkozy -> Macron
Dark blue: Hollande -> Macron
Whiter shades of pale: Sarkozy -> Le Pen

[omar04]

Could someone make a map of the first and/or second round that shows the number of votes cast?

[Oryxslayer]

The Definitive results of the runoff - aka the formal approved ones - are now up on the government site. Surprisingly, Marne's 3rd constituency remained tied between Macron and Le Pen after any final checks.

[Former President tack50]

Unrelated, but the descriptions done of Seine et Marne by Zinneke and Parochial Boy remind me, almost word by word, of the infamous Vox Green Belt that developed around the Madrid metro area here

I wonder what attracts such exurban type places to far right policies, regardless of country and culture

[Hash]

Map of the expat vote in the runoff is much more boring - it went 86% for Macron, on about 38% turnout. Le Pen only won in Russia (minus Yekaterinburg's 4 votes) and Almaty (Kazakhstan as a whole seems to have gone Macron by adding Nur-Sultan to Almaty), and came close in Belarus, Paraguay, Moldova and Monaco (46.2%!) and did relatively well in Thailand, Andorra and Djibouti. Everywhere else was basically a Macron sweep - over 90% in the UK, Ireland, Netherlands, Germany, Scandinavia, over 85% in Belgium, Canada, most of the US (over 90% in San Francisco, NYC and Boston but just 76% in Miami), Australia, much of South America and at least 80% in most of Africa (over 90% but very low turnout in Algeria). Zemmour's Jewish vote in Israel went heavily for Macron, who got about 85% there in the runoff.

I have many questions about the expats in Paraguay and Monaco now.

I apologize for the colour scheme, but I'll probably be the last one to still use brown for Le Pen (glad that Le Monde is still with me on this one). I'll have a lot more very interesting maps very soon...

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Unrelated, but the descriptions done of Seine et Marne by Zinneke and Parochial Boy remind me, almost word by word, of the infamous Vox Green Belt that developed around the Madrid metro area here

I wonder what attracts such exurban type places to far right policies, regardless of country and culture

It attracts people with money who are connected to the metropolis economical but dislike urban lifestyle/culture. So about as perfect a conservative demographic as you can get.

[Oryxslayer]

I have many questions about the expats in Paraguay and Monaco now.
.

I mean Monaco is culturally part of France's southern coast, just way wealthier...right?

I apologize for the colour scheme, but I'll probably be the last one to still use brown for Le Pen (glad that Le Monde is still with me on this one). I'll have a lot more very interesting maps very soon...

FTR, I use Blue for her mainly cause it contrasts perfectly with yellow/orange/golds, so a multi-hue ramp is easily visible.

[Former President tack50]

Unrelated, but the descriptions done of Seine et Marne by Zinneke and Parochial Boy remind me, almost word by word, of the infamous Vox Green Belt that developed around the Madrid metro area here

I wonder what attracts such exurban type places to far right policies, regardless of country and culture

It attracts people with money who are connected to the metropolis economical but dislike urban lifestyle/culture. So about as perfect a conservative demographic as you can get.

Thing is, like Parochial Boy said, these are peak "middle to lower middle income" areas. These aren't exactly uber wealthy areas with huge McMansions.