French presidential election, 2022

[MaxQue]

33% for the other candidates seems really high.

[MaxQue]

When's the earliest we'll get reliable poll results?

The ones at poll closure should quite reliable, as only a part of it will be an exit poll (as rural areas polls close 1 hour earlier).

[parochial boy]

When's the earliest we'll get reliable poll results?

8pm CET - throw everything else in the trash. 5 years ago at this stage we had "exit polls" putting Mélenchon in the second round. The stuff coming out now isn't even worth the paper it's written on.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

When's the earliest we'll get reliable poll results?

8pm CET - throw everything else in the trash. 5 years ago at this stage we had "exit polls" putting Mélenchon in the second round. The stuff coming out now isn't even worth the paper it's written on.

Ugh, have a test tommorow. Guess I'll have to miss this one out, kinda sad. Good luck to those staying up or(not) to watch the results.

[Cassius]

Very par for the course to see so many "leftists" bowing down at the altar of nightmarish neoliberal orthodoxy (as they almost always do, in all Western countries) to vote for Macron

Ik its so based to see leftists getting cucked.

Don’t count your chickens before they are in the coop.

[MaxQue]

EXIT POLL: Macron & Le Pen tied at 24%, according to the Belgian press, with Mélenchon at 19%.

https://twitter.com/lalibrebe/status/1513180132055392256

Zemmour and Pecresse both on 8% in the same source.

Which would make 17% for Jadot and the also-rans. Doubtful.

[Hash]

FWIW, this forum has an unwritten tradition/rule against sharing leaked exit polls/estimates before the official time - both as a courtesy to people who like the excitement and surprise of waiting for the official time, and because a lot of leaks are fakes/inaccurate. I'm not sure if I'll enforce it strongly this year, but I am putting that out there to let people know.

What we do have that isn't a leak is Ipsos' abstention estimate: 26.5%. Higher than in 2002, so not a record high, but would be the second lowest turnout. It is roughly at the upper end of the good pollsters' estimates, so to me this suggests that their final polls should be rather accurate barring some last-minute swings/surges.

[Antonio the Sixth]

These "secret exit polls" are usually worthless and might actually be people just pulling numbers out of their ass. It's possible they get it right, of course, but if so it's probably just because they read the trend right.

Instead of speculating about fantasy numbers, here's a simple arithmetic mean of the final polls of all polling firms since Monday (counted Ipsos and Ipsos-Sopra-Steria separately, no idea if that makes sense but I guess it increases the sample size):

Macron 26.4%
Le Pen 23%
Mélenchon 17.1%
Zemmour 9.7%
Pécresse 7.9%
Jadot 4.8%
Roussel 2.6%
Lassalle 2.5%
Dupont-Aignan 2.2%
Hidalgo 2.1%
Poutou 1%
Arthaud 0.6%

These are the benchmarks I'll be having in mind when I look at the 20:00 results, although trends are also worth considering (+ for Le Pen and Mélenchon, - for Macron, Zemmour and Pécresse).

[kaoras]

The leaked exit poll from the belgian newspaper was actually fairly good though. It had Macron 24%, Le Pen 22%, Fillon 20,5% and Melenchón 18% in 2017.

[Hash]

Ifop's turnout estimate is a bit higher: 75%. This is, I think, about 2% higher than their last turnout estimate in the last rolling poll.

FWIW, most polls showed that turnout intentions were lowest among left-wingers.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The leaked exit poll from the belgian newspaper was actually fairly good though. It had Macron 24%, Le Pen 22%, Fillon 20,5% and Melenchón 18% in 2017.

Yeah, but so were pre-election polls. So it's really not hard to extrapolate from them and come up with plausible results. The great unacknowledged truth about French politics is that French polls are very good by international standards.

[parochial boy]

Speaking of which, if abstention ends up at ~26.5% as announced that's already a pretty decent job on part of Ipsos and co as that's pretty much bang on what the polls were indicating, even while saying all along that they far less confident about the participation numbers they were publishing.

[DavidB.]

Will there be any live stream for exit polls/results?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Will there be any live stream for exit polls/results?

https://www.france.tv/france-2/direct.html

This is the one I'm watching. There are a bunch of others.

[Double Carpet]

If anyone finds a live results map (by department rather than commune) would be hugely appreciated if you are able to post it, many thanks.

[Shilly]

This map should work.
https://www.afpforum.com/AFPForum/Search/ViewMedia.aspx?mui=5&hid=A847EA86513C8383102C503A2C98E5AFFA9594711BA77C7E54B55B481CF45CA4&cck=a1aff2

[Double Carpet]

Ah thanks!!

[Double Carpet]

FYIs if not already mentioned, the vote projection 8pm French time won't be an exit poll but a projection based on a sample of votes counted, as most polling stations outside the big cities close at 7pm local time.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

FWIW, most polls showed that turnout intentions were lowest among left-wingers.

That should not be the slightest bit shocking.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is rhe live-stream I'm following.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

FYIs if not already mentioned, the vote projection 8pm French time won't be an exit poll but a projection based on a sample of votes counted, as most polling stations outside the big cities close at 7pm local time.

This is one reason why purported exit poll 'leaks' are of strictly limited value, even if accurate (and often they aren't). The other reason, of course, is that people continue to vote until the polling stations close, and when margins are tight (and they often are in French elections, especially at the first round) this can make a critical difference.

[KaiserDave]

Is the poll leaked to La Libre legitimate?

[Zinneke]

Is the poll leaked to La Libre legitimate?

No, it's bunk, it's purely released to piss off Hashemite.

[Mike88]

Live coverage of LCI:

Live coverage of Franceinfo:

Live coverage from BFMTV:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_GL7UmbBZMU

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Is the poll leaked to La Libre legitimate?

No, it's bunk, it's purely released to piss off Hashemite.

So La Libre releases bunk polls every election year?