French presidential election, 2022

[Zinneke]

The citing of Chevènement is because the mythology of the man's anti-EU stance is important for some "left" types who are behind the Front Populaire magazine for example and might be tempted by Le Pen's "sovereignty above ideology". A visible example is Natachy Polony, but you also have Kuzmanovic, Onfray, a bunch of others who

But let's not call these people left-wing. They are, for all intents and purposes, Neo-Strasserites.

Let's keep in mind that in still (IMHO) unlikely event that Lepen were to win the run-off, its very questionable whether she would get the usual win for her party in the legislative elections. In fact we could have a situation where she could be president and her party might still have very little representation in the assembly meaning there would have to be "co-habitation" with a PM and government entirely made up of people from other parties...

100% this too. Even if Macron wins in fact, LREM are such an incompentent force in terms of on the ground activism that his "guarenteed majority" is up for grabs afterwards. This why incidentally Jadot, Hidalgo, and Roussel are still running. They know they won't be President but they need the exposure for their parties to hold on and potentially even gain from the legislatives right after. That and their deposit.

[Umengus]

The citing of Chevènement is because the mythology of the man's anti-EU stance is important for some "left" types who are behind the Front Populaire magazine for example and might be tempted by Le Pen's "sovereignty above ideology". A visible example is Natachy Polony, but you also have Kuzmanovic, Onfray, a bunch of others who

But let's not call these people left-wing. They are, for all intents and purposes, Neo-Strasserites.

Let's keep in mind that in still (IMHO) unlikely event that Lepen were to win the run-off, its very questionable whether she would get the usual win for her party in the legislative elections. In fact we could have a situation where she could be president and her party might still have very little representation in the assembly meaning there would have to be "co-habitation" with a PM and government entirely made up of people from other parties...

100% this too. Even if Macron wins in fact, LREM are such an incompentent force in terms of on the ground activism that his "guarenteed majority" is up for grabs afterwards. This why incidentally Jadot, Hidalgo, and Roussel are still running. They know they won't be President but they need the exposure for their parties to hold on and potentially even gain from the legislatives right after. That and their deposit.

If macron wins, I don't see another party than en marche to win the majority.

If MLP wins, I see a strong RN-Z-LR (partly) alliance. Probably to win a majority. But maybe not.

[Umengus]

last elabe poll:

 Emmanuel #Macron : 26% (-2)
🔵 Marine #LePen : 25% (+2)
🔴 Jean-Luc #Mélenchon : 17,5% (+2)
⚫️ Éric #Zemmour : 8,5% (-0,5)
🟠 Valérie #Pécresse : 8%

Macron: 51 (-2)
Le pen: 49 (+2)

[Illiniwek]

Jesus, France....

The last thing we need right now is a rogue nationalist in an EU-leading state. Can you imagine what the back half of this decade is going to look like in a Le Pen-BoJo-Fd'I-Trump world? Putin will be invading every European country on its border.

[Oryxslayer]

The citing of Chevènement is because the mythology of the man's anti-EU stance is important for some "left" types who are behind the Front Populaire magazine for example and might be tempted by Le Pen's "sovereignty above ideology". A visible example is Natachy Polony, but you also have Kuzmanovic, Onfray, a bunch of others who

But let's not call these people left-wing. They are, for all intents and purposes, Neo-Strasserites.

Let's keep in mind that in still (IMHO) unlikely event that Lepen were to win the run-off, its very questionable whether she would get the usual win for her party in the legislative elections. In fact we could have a situation where she could be president and her party might still have very little representation in the assembly meaning there would have to be "co-habitation" with a PM and government entirely made up of people from other parties...

100% this too. Even if Macron wins in fact, LREM are such an incompentent force in terms of on the ground activism that his "guarenteed majority" is up for grabs afterwards. This why incidentally Jadot, Hidalgo, and Roussel are still running. They know they won't be President but they need the exposure for their parties to hold on and potentially even gain from the legislatives right after. That and their deposit.

If macron wins, I don't see another party than en marche to win the majority.

If MLP wins, I see a strong RN-Z-LR (partly) alliance. Probably to win a majority. But maybe not.

For everything that has happened in the last few weeks, it still seems unlikely that LREM+ will lose a majority of the seats - still might net lose seats, but hard to see them losing. Macron's destruction of LR/UDI might not be a benefit right now in the first round, but it will in the legislatives when there is no point voting for those two out of power parties when compared to LREM or FN depending upon the voter's loyalties. Since LREM already holds a lot of the 'left' seats, the opposition from that angle would have to depose incumbents in a runoff where LREM probably consolidates all parties to to the right of said left party. This will especially be the case if the legislative round 1 vote looks like the presidential round 1 vote and there's an abnormal number of LREM/FN runoffs.

I wouldn't be surprised if a Macron legislative contest ends up with LREM near net zero change: picks up a bunch of LR/UDI seats, loses seats to FN in areas of far-right strength they won through being the 'not FN' party at a worse time for FN, and lose some urban seats to the constellation of the Left parties.

[DL]

Needless to say the two weeks between Round 1 and Round 2 will be very intense and it will involve a tete a tete between Macron and LePen like last time and likely a huge focus on what a LePen win would actually mean etc... I suspect that when all the dust settles Macron will win 53-47 but the consensus will be that it was wayyyy closer than it should have been and he will be in a very weakened position in his second term

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

In other news, Taubira decides to back Mélenchon. This is a little surprising to me, she seems much more fiscally liberal (in the classical sense) than him. Hidalgo can't catch a break.

I nay have misunderstood her, but I also saw Segolene Royal calling for a Melenchon vote?

[Umengus]

In other news, Taubira decides to back Mélenchon. This is a little surprising to me, she seems much more fiscally liberal (in the classical sense) than him. Hidalgo can't catch a break.

I nay have misunderstood her, but I also saw Segolene Royal calling for a Melenchon vote?

correct. "le vote utile"

[Umengus]

Jesus, France....

The last thing we need right now is a rogue nationalist in an EU-leading state. Can you imagine what the back half of this decade is going to look like in a Le Pen-BoJo-Fd'I-Trump world? Putin will be invading every European country on its border.

with what ?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

An important thing to understand about French politics these days is that the average Le Pen supporter is not an angry young man or an embittered pensioner, but an ordinary person in an ordinary job with children at school and with tricky household budgets to manage. They are sensitive to the cost of living and suspect (rightly) that they are getting badly served by public services, particularly when compared to other groups even if they generally misidentify who those other groups are.* They are, undeniably, quite racist by usual North Western European norms, but so are people who are far less likely to vote for Le Pen: that's just France. It is a sobering thought, but the sort of people who Le Pen centres her appeal around and wishes to drive to the polls in large numbers are the sort of people that Keir Starmer, Olaf Scholz and so on also spend most of their time trying to appeal to. But perhaps even worse is that no one else in French politics really tries seriously to appeal to this section of the electorate. So long as this remains true, it is very hard to find any hope in French politics.

_{*Which, by the way, is why left-wing appeals to preserve the social state and so on have fallen flat for years and continue to do so. Of course the French social state (I use this term rather than the more familiar welfare state for a reason) is rather unusually structured and funded: put bluntly, the principle beneficiaries are not those who one might expect of a more typical welfare state. That all of this is a major contribution to the structural factors underpinning far-right political support is rarely acknowledged but undeniably true.}

You're raising fair points. The question is just whether LePen is actually able or willing to do something serious about that. And I'm very skeptical she has practical solutions to these problems, especially with her anti-EU stances that would harm France's economy. Just to throw a tantrum at the "power elite" by electing a far right-winger doesn't solve a damn problem. You can doubt Macron is the right leader to tackle these problems, but there are other candidates available in the first round. Voters could send someone else to th runoff. And just because Zemmour appears more extreme doesn't mean LePen isn't. Her presidency would be a total s-show.

I'm not suggesting that Le Pen is the answer to any of the problems that have led to her dominating (almost uncontested!) such a large and not obviously or naturally politically marginal section of the electorate, not at all. My post is simply an examination of the phenomenon and also an oblique demonstration of why other candidates and parties have been unable and/or unwilling to contest that electoral space, even though doing so seems natural and obvious to those of us from other countries in the North and West of Europe.

[Person Man]

An important thing to understand about French politics these days is that the average Le Pen supporter is not an angry young man or an embittered pensioner, but an ordinary person in an ordinary job with children at school and with tricky household budgets to manage. They are sensitive to the cost of living and suspect (rightly) that they are getting badly served by public services, particularly when compared to other groups even if they generally misidentify who those other groups are.* They are, undeniably, quite racist by usual North Western European norms, but so are people who are far less likely to vote for Le Pen: that's just France. It is a sobering thought, but the sort of people who Le Pen centres her appeal around and wishes to drive to the polls in large numbers are the sort of people that Keir Starmer, Olaf Scholz and so on also spend most of their time trying to appeal to. But perhaps even worse is that no one else in French politics really tries seriously to appeal to this section of the electorate. So long as this remains true, it is very hard to find any hope in French politics.

_{*Which, by the way, is why left-wing appeals to preserve the social state and so on have fallen flat for years and continue to do so. Of course the French social state (I use this term rather than the more familiar welfare state for a reason) is rather unusually structured and funded: put bluntly, the principle beneficiaries are not those who one might expect of a more typical welfare state. That all of this is a major contribution to the structural factors underpinning far-right political support is rarely acknowledged but undeniably true.}

You're raising fair points. The question is just whether LePen is actually able or willing to do something serious about that. And I'm very skeptical she has practical solutions to these problems, especially with her anti-EU stances that would harm France's economy. Just to throw a tantrum at the "power elite" by electing a far right-winger doesn't solve a damn problem. You can doubt Macron is the right leader to tackle these problems, but there are other candidates available in the first round. Voters could send someone else to th runoff. And just because Zemmour appears more extreme doesn't mean LePen isn't. Her presidency would be a total s-show.

I'm not suggesting that Le Pen is the answer to any of the problems that have led to her dominating (almost uncontested!) such a large and not obviously or naturally politically marginal section of the electorate, not at all. My post is simply an examination of the phenomenon and also an oblique demonstration of why other candidates and parties have been unable and/or unwilling to contest that electoral space, even though doing so seems natural and obvious to those of us from other countries in the North and West of Europe.

And to that I say, join the club.
As privilege is replaced by merit, some people will simultaneously start to struggle and identify with privilege.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I would challenge the notion that France is a uniquely racist country. Upwards of 80% of French people, when polled, said they would not mind a Muslim neighbor.
Source

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This is true, but why expect Le Pen will decline after the first round? I would think a surprising strong showing (for those who don't religiously follow polling) and reconciliation with Zemmour and (some) Pécresse supporters will improve her standing.

I make no predictions either way. Runoff polling can develop in all sorts of different ways depending on what happens. The important thing is to note that right now it is hypothetical: after Sunday it will not be. We do not know yet, not for certain, if Le Pen will make the second round: she's only a fairly moderate polling error off losing out to Melenchon in some polls. I don't think this is particularly likely, I should add, but we should be careful of counting chickens for anyone.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

TBH those who criticize you pretend to be intellectuals but in the subthreads of other elections such as Spain or any election in Latin America, British and French avatars demonstrate their absolute ignorance and triviality. Besides here we have Zeneke, so "there are rules of behavior" is highly debatable xd.

So speaketh the great genius who crowingly proclaimed at great length that the Ukrainian people would not fight back if the Russian army invaded their country - a prospect that you regarded with masturbatory glee.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

French politics really suck. That's all I can say.

Honestly at this point I'd probably just hold my nose and vote for Macron in the first round as well. The fact that this wouldn't even be entirely tactical and that he's actually probably legitimately preferable to any of his serious opponents (not just Le Pen) really just underscores how lousy the politics of this country is.

[Coldstream]

Let's keep in mind that in still (IMHO) unlikely event that Lepen were to win the run-off, its very questionable whether she would get the usual win for her party in the legislative elections. In fact we could have a situation where she could be president and her party might still have very little representation in the assembly meaning there would have to be "co-habitation" with a PM and government entirely made up of people from other parties...

French posters will correct me if I’m wrong, but I was under the impression that the President can still name a PM/government even without a legislative majority. Last time Philippe became PM the day after Macron took office, a full month before the legislative elections when they were without a majority. So Le Pen could appoint a government for a few weeks at least.

[parochial boy]

Oh right. So I should probably get less emotional about this, because I am not actually French and this stuff doesn't affect me. But is does actually affect my, like forget even the retirement age stuff, when you tell people that their right to access the welfare state is suddently conditional, make access to public services conditional, when you give tax cuts to millionaires that are funded by normal people... all that actually hurts people.  It makes their lives worse.

 And for all you can post hoc justify it through some logic about how the French are all appalling racists. Like, I dunno, at the end of the day I know french people and interact french people and they still get excited about music and sport and get outraged by injustice like the rest of us. This idea that the French are inherently racist, well, it's far more complicated - the culture is messed up, and they're in the middle of an identity crisis that is completely insane.. but that still doesn't justify just sitting back and accepting that the French welfare state should be torn apart and ground to the dust and all the things that make France a civilised country should just be abandoned.

Like, the point is, when you go that you support Macron because of the threat of Le Pen - well sorry, no. Even if you hate Mélenchon, there are left wing candidates out there who have perfectly acceptable and admirable programmes, even if they themselves are shït as candidates. And just handing things over to Macron, well on the one hand it is giving up, but on the other hand it is a luxury that you have as a liberal, educated, middle class foreigner who won't really suffer from a programme of cuts to the welfare state, of promoting precarity and of telling normal people that they need to subsidise the lifestyles of the most privileged.

Pioint being, I am left wing, and I'm sick of being on the defensive. This shït matters. And the idea you should give up and submit to some crappy narrative about neoliberal globalism v  plutocratic racism.Sorry, no, as long as we live in a democracy I am going to keep believing and going to keep voting for my values.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Let's keep in mind that in still (IMHO) unlikely event that Lepen were to win the run-off, its very questionable whether she would get the usual win for her party in the legislative elections. In fact we could have a situation where she could be president and her party might still have very little representation in the assembly meaning there would have to be "co-habitation" with a PM and government entirely made up of people from other parties...

People mooted this possibility in 2017 too because LREM was made up of complete nobodies, and they ended up sweeping aside all comers without breaking a sweat. To restate the basics: if Le Pen wins the run-off, she will have won the support of 50%+ of French voters. It's of course possible that a lot of these people could develop buyer's remorse by the time the legislatives come along, but if she wins then by definition the reasons why this could happen are less relevant than ever. We can of course imagine a scenario where her opponents mobilise in response, except that's in fact the exact opposite of what's happened in every French legislative election ever. The only reason to expect it to happen is (understandable) wishful thinking.

[Red Velvet]

Zemmour was great for Le Pen because it’s harsher for people to see her as “the extremist” now and that he occupies that position. I don’t doubt she can get elected this time at all.

Would consolidate the end of EU at least in the way we know it. Hungary is one thing even if they’re EU member, but France??

[lfromnj]

You can ban me all you want. You're just showing how intolerant you all are.

Thought this was compucomp for a second.

To get back on topic: If Macron manages to lose this election he has nobody to blame but himself. This would be a spectacular collapse from what looked like a sure thing a month ago.

As somebody who is only somewhat informed about French governmental structure, what would a President Le Pen be able to do without a Parliamentary majority? I know the French President isn't powerless as in most European countries, but much of their power is only possible with the Parliamentary majority that most incoming French Presidents have.

Parliamentary elections always go with the presidential winner in France.

[Death of a Salesman]

Let's keep in mind that in still (IMHO) unlikely event that Lepen were to win the run-off, its very questionable whether she would get the usual win for her party in the legislative elections. In fact we could have a situation where she could be president and her party might still have very little representation in the assembly meaning there would have to be "co-habitation" with a PM and government entirely made up of people from other parties...

French posters will correct me if I’m wrong, but I was under the impression that the President can still name a PM/government even without a legislative majority. Last time Philippe became PM the day after Macron took office, a full month before the legislative elections when they were without a majority. So Le Pen could appoint a government for a few weeks at least.

The government is responsible to the National Assembly, which may bring it down with a simple majority. In theory Le Pen could try to play ping-pong with the assembly, but I suspect that antics like that would lead to a court case establishing she couldn't do that (whether the law truly justifies that ruling or not). In the likely scenario that RN falls short of a legislative majority, she would likely try to form a government led by a conservative LR politician, Eric Ciotti or someone like him, which would be able to maintain the confidence of the National Assembly by dint of the votes of all the forces on the Right.

[Death of a Salesman]

Zemmour was great for Le Pen because it’s harsher for people to see her as “the extremist” now and that he occupies that position. I don’t doubt she can get elected this time at all.

Would consolidate the end of EU at least in the way we know it. Hungary is one thing even if they’re EU member, but France??

A Union aligned with De Gaulle and Adenauer, not the liberal caste currently in Brussels. Perhaps it shall not come to pass, but the currents flowing that way are strong.

[Frodo]

Let's keep in mind that in still (IMHO) unlikely event that Lepen were to win the run-off, its very questionable whether she would get the usual win for her party in the legislative elections. In fact we could have a situation where she could be president and her party might still have very little representation in the assembly meaning there would have to be "co-habitation" with a PM and government entirely made up of people from other parties...

So we shouldn't worry about France leaving the European Union and/or NATO, or about Marine Le Pen undercutting European efforts to contain Vladimir Putin?  

Marine Le Pen could bring ‘more chaos than Trump’, warns Andrew Neil - ‘Destabilising’

[H. Ross Peron]

An example of what Al is describing is the pension system, which incidentally favours the likes of CGT “blue collared” labour aristocracy (celebrated by the likes of DFB because what matters is wearing dungarees and virtue signalling you see) and their outdated privileges over e.g. tourism sector workers in the South who have to serve Dutch caravan dwellers for a living. Who is really worse off?

Not being a resident of France nor a specialist on French politics, I've largely held my peace on my own opinions regarding the French Presidential election in this thread. But let me just say this, if you want me to have sympathy for Macron in the (still hypothetical) run-off against Le Pen, maybe don't push the "privileged unionized workers line" that state-level Republicans trot out every election season against teachers and other public employees. The real enemy-in both America and France-are not to be found in the factories nor the classrooms.

[Zinneke]

Let's keep in mind that in still (IMHO) unlikely event that Lepen were to win the run-off, its very questionable whether she would get the usual win for her party in the legislative elections. In fact we could have a situation where she could be president and her party might still have very little representation in the assembly meaning there would have to be "co-habitation" with a PM and government entirely made up of people from other parties...

People mooted this possibility in 2017 too because LREM was made up of complete nobodies, and they ended up sweeping aside all comers without breaking a sweat. To restate the basics: if Le Pen wins the run-off, she will have won the support of 50%+ of French second round voters.

ftfy

Its still entirely possible people stay home for Le Pen vs Macron (because Meluche told them it was the same thing) but play an impact in the legislatives. Also, the legislatives have second rounds and the choices may not be as "toxic" to voters in the second round. We have seen than RN often get blocked in legislatives and regional elections because entire candidacies are pulled out. No such dynamics exist in Presidential election.

An example of what Al is describing is the pension system, which incidentally favours the likes of CGT “blue collared” labour aristocracy (celebrated by the likes of DFB because what matters is wearing dungarees and virtue signalling you see) and their outdated privileges over e.g. tourism sector workers in the South who have to serve Dutch caravan dwellers for a living. Who is really worse off?

Not being a resident of France nor a specialist on French politics, I've largely held my peace on my own opinions regarding the French Presidential election in this thread. But let me just say this, if you want me to have sympathy for Macron in the (still hypothetical) run-off against Le Pen, maybe don't push the "privileged unionized workers line" that state-level Republicans trot out every election season against teachers and other public employees. The real enemy-in both America and France-are not to be found in the factories nor the classrooms.

I never said factory workers are to be blamed. I'm saying that the Left in France, principally influenced by the CGT, has allowed itself to lose swathes of the neo-proleteriat in favour of privileges for what they associate with the entire working class (usually the loudest sectors, not necessarily the least well off). That is the reason why there are large swathes of the French working class who are going to vote Le Pen. Phillippe Martinez, the head of the CGT and classic labour aristocrat who probably earns more in a year than many working class people in a lifetime, only focuses on the cosmetic struggles of preserving the incredibly favourable pension system for cheminots and not the tourism sector workers in the South. France's social model is to be admired compared to most but as Al was saying elements of the bureaucracy favour certain sectors over others and there is your number 1 for Le Pen doing well in places like the South. This is because the kind of faux-left hobbyists sees "working class" as a value system, a trend, a set of clothes your wear or activities you do, rather than an economic reality. There are swathes of people who are solely reliant on labour income (my definition of working class incidentally, closer to the Marxist one) that struggle day to day but don't have a union that has a magnetophone and can hold the country to ransom by shutting down the train system. Those people like Phillippe Martinez are entitled bureaucrats who probably own a holiday home in the South when you look beyond their working class LARP act.

Macron's pension reforms were actually very egalitarian. Don't get me wrong, they treated everyone equally bad. But at least there was a logic to have a pension system that took objective realities into account rather than who had the loudest union (and incidentally the right-wing police union are the absolute worse at blackmailing government, not the train workers).