French presidential election, 2022

[parochial boy]

I'll make this my last post on this topic because it's completely disrupted the thread enough already. The point is, to point Mélenchon as a "dangerous extremist" is to put him on the same pedestal as a Zemmour, or even beyond a Le Pen. For all the guy is flawed, this is clearly a point that is untrue.

All your arguments rest on the idea that Macron is as much an authoritarian as JLM, or that I somehow favour Macron over JLM. I didn't mention Macron once in my entire post. I just said that JLM has all the indicators of someone who will readily implement a dictatorship that will make Macron's vague centrist authoritarian action man act look like a picnic.

I also know that the far right is a bigger threat in France. I can read the polls and I can see the number of incidents. But people on this forum are not entirely uninitiated with the French and European far right: they also are far the most part anti-Le Pen as she is a known force. What they may not understand, as non-French speakers, is just quite how the Mélenchon hype isn't some heroic left-wing pro-union Sanders style guy taking on the establishment, but an extremely dangerous political operator (and incidentally a racist, xenophobic cxnt) who poses as a left-wing fireband. Especially when there are people such as yourself who will excuse his behavior on the basis that he is less worse than Le Pen, Zemmour and all the other cranks on the opposite side of the political spectrum.  

Incidentally, Macron has not turned the judicial and police system in his favour the same way Sarkozy and Hollande both did. He is just a bland neo-liberal managerialist and his love affair with McKinsey is symptomatic of this. With the exception of the Benalla affair, which is serious resignation material but also plausibly deniable, we have not seen Macron repress the same manner Sarkozy did. Sarkozy was far closer to turning France into an amocracy than Macron has even been this 5 years, you had literally Sarkozy's cabinet calling up police chiefs to try and find dirt on his opponents or him settling 15 year old grudges by sacking an official that insulted him back then. Macron has not engaged in this behaviour for all his faults. Melenchon would do this but to an even higher degree.

My response regarding Macron was with regards the logic that Mélenchon is a "dangerous extremist" and therefore what? We pretend that France hasn't seen a definite and significant democratic backslide under Marcon's presidency? That all those things I said aren't the case - that the man has fuelled both intentionally and unintentionally a racist, anti-democratic, fascisising political environment? And that regards the people he has put in his government, the types of rhetoric he has presided over and the way that he has responded to the varying social and protest movements that have arisen over his mandate.

Which will be minor compared to Mélenchon's actual, genuine attempts to Orbanise political spaces in France, only with a vague left-wing approach. Not only that, I genuinely think that after a 5 year term of Mélenchon the electoral exercise itself would be in question. Or do you forget his 200,000 missing votes rant?

Except this is debatable at best, like your earlier and continued attempts to make out as if Mélenchon's supporters are just happily tied into what ever his project and whatever authoritarian maneouvers he may try to make.

One pretty major difference from the start between him or a Trump or an Orban is that he is standing on a programme that initially has the stated objective of weakening the presidency but that is also primarily a programme of economic distribution. That straight from the start is a world of difference from the other two, or a Le Pen who have made targetting minority groups the centre of their political identity. Or frankly even even a Macron who has had a five year governmental agenda of indulging extreme right rhetoric and targeting left wingers and ethnic minorities.

If you don't trust him on the basis of past outbursts that is perfectly reasonable - but the point I keep coming to, is that he is not uniquely authoritarian or extreme relative to the other major candidates who are standing.

How is Macron given a free pass? If anything the francophones (you, Hashemite, Antonio) on this board are almost all bar a few exception the type of sociological Mélenchon voters who criticize Macron a lot - when I consider him to be a far more grey area than a wannabe dictator with devil horns. I don't consider Melenchon to be a grey area, I've cited why its blatantly obvious the man is a much more natural authoritarian than Macron.

5 years of Mélenchon would also be this PLUS the end of electoral democracy in France PLUS the total destruction of anything resembling a coherent anti-Late Capitalism Left in France PLUS the end of the European Project.

Which is hyperbolic to say the least. As regards the constituent assembly, most projects of constitutional reform go through an equivalent step, and and a functioning as completely authoritarian and submissive as you suggest it would be is already unconstitutional to the degree it would never even get of the starting block.

To this point, and the point about his cultish following, yes I know that, I've made that point myself at least three times in this thread - and five years ago it was perfectly reasonable to say these things are complete disqualifiers, but we are five years later and one of him or the other four are going to be president; and ultimately claiming he is a bigger threat than Macron comes down to the fact that he is a gob-shïte with a loud and aggressive following. But the fact that Macron also puts authoritarian policies into practice isn't less threatening just because the guy wears a suit; and his following is no less of a cult just because is comprised of CSP+ and HEC students from the West of Paris. At least there are people in or adjacent to LFI who have some degree of independence - which isn't really the case for LREM list of anonymous line toers.

If someone thinks this they are a cretin who has never lived in a dictatorship, which incidentally 95% of the people who think they live in a dictatorship because Macron follows a Brussels directive are

Sure, yes, and it is a line of thought that is doing enormous damage to the left. But whether you think it is a reasonable argument or not, it is one that is made and it is one that has purchase. You only need to look around this forum to see variants of it being presented by left wingers on here.

Edit: And by the way, I really do understand where parochial is coming from here; I never liked Corbyn, but I defended him to a lot of people as the lesser evil in both 2017 and 2019. In hindsight, having seen his reaction to the anti-Semitism report and his participation in anti-NATO rallies in recent weeks, I’m ashamed that I ever stood up for him as much as I did (this is not to say that I now think May or Johnson were any better, but, completely ignoring the Tories, that Corbyn on his own merits was so bad that he didn’t deserve a defence). There are a lot of similarities between him and Méluche — the anti-Semitism, the terrible foreign policy, the ‘reactionary left’ streak, and the petty narcissism and factional vindictiveness — but the sense I get is that anything bad you can say about Corbyn you can say the same but ten times worse for Mélenchon. Corbyn is clearly a deeply principled man even if many of those principles are terrible, whereas Méluche seems like an utter slimeball through and through.

This a totally legitimate and reasonable point, and the anti-semitism is probably the single worst thing about Mélenchon. But the context is the degree to which France is not a safe place for Muslims or left wing activists right now. The incumbent government has, like I said, refused to even accept the problem of police violence - towards protestors and towards movements - and has even condoned and targetted both groups in a nasty and dangerous rhetoric.

In recent weeks, we saw and Argentinian rugby player murdered by a right-wing extremist for simple fact of being a foreigner and yet this stirred no outrage. Likewise, he have an endless stream of arbitrary violence against left wingers. There was a recent interview with one basically making the point that when you go to a left wing political meeting in France - once it's finished you have to put down your flags and hide all signs of what you were just doing, because of the concrete threat that you are going to be set upon by far rights campaigners. This is an emergency, and it is something that Macron has let happen, meaning that five more years of him will mean five more years of this getting worse.

No, antisemitism is not acceptable, but among the major candidates there is no alternative that doesn't mean an ever more threatening environment for other minorities. In that respect it is not a comparison with the UK because as bad as Theresa May way, there was no such threat posed agaisnt Muslims or foreigners in her or even Johnson's Britain

[Zinneke]

We should leave the discussion here because that last paragraph is particularly contemptible, approaching a point where you would question if a French voter would have to make a Faustian pact electing an anti-Semite in order save other minorities. That's not how it works. You really could have just stopped at

No, antisemitism is not acceptable

And yes, there are major candidates who condemn anti-Semitism and Islamophobia.

No one I read here is downplaying the threat of the far right. Some on here would argue Macron is not the variable you believe him to be in creating those conditions. It already started in the 90s and 2002 was the first time a Le Pen made the second round. I'm not sure Macron is responsible for creating a more or less hostile climate when you consider the terrorist attacks were not that long ago either. But everyone here knows the far right and knows their methods. And knows that if Le Pen and Zemmour or even Pécresse are elected we will get a hyper authoritarian government. Given their incompetence it'll be more like Orban redux but still very dangerous.

On the other hand, some on Atlas have in the past supported Mélenchon out of some blind loyalty to any ancap anti-imp Left. But he really has the same objectives. You speak of wealth distribution in his programme making him different? How many autocrats have used wealth distribution is an escalator to power? It's beyond farcical we haven't learned our lesson on the Left yet when it comes to what seems to me at least blatantly authoritarian figures but who promise to rewrite the economic rules and then we get starry eyed about revolution and social progress again.

I am not talking about French political debate. France will have to one day come to terms with its normalization of the far right. But in the end Zemmour is a wolf and Mélenchon is a wolf in sheep's clothing. I'd like the latter to get out in the open so we can end this masquerade and form a genuine, pan-European Left.

[parochial boy]

We should leave the discussion here because that last paragraph is particularly contemptible, approaching a point where you would question if a French voter would have to make a Faustian pact electing an anti-Semite in order save other minorities. That's not how it works. You really could have just stopped at

No, antisemitism is not acceptable

And yes, there are major candidates who condemn anti-Semitism and Islamophobia.

Sorry, I wasn't going to come back, but I kind of actually resent this. I did not an any point use that logic. The jist of my response to Alcibiades was not that we should throw Jewish people under the bus but that he had actually had identified the one principle reason why I wouldn't vote for the guy myself; and merely that it is a tragedy that there is no way of voting in this election that doesn't mean a scarier and more threatening world for one or more groups of people.

What I have been trying to do, repeatedly, is to make precisely that point. Rather than to try and paint Macron's record in government as just circumstancial or the spirit of the times, as if the guy didn't choose to include Blanquer or Darmanin in his government, fuel the rhetoric or pass a bill deliberately singling out and targetting one particular minority. At least have the honest to accept that he has done this - instead of posting stuff trying to imply Mélenchon supporters are close fascists who will rush to vote Le Pen in the second round.

[Frodo]

French far-right leader Le Pen softens image for election
French nationalist Marine Le Pen has softened her rhetoric and her image as she tries to unseat centrist President Emmanuel Macron in the upcoming election, taking place in two rounds on April 10 and 24

[Zinneke]

https://twitter.com/FraserJMcQueen/status/1510691196259155977

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

French far-right leader Le Pen softens image for election
French nationalist Marine Le Pen has softened her rhetoric and her image as she tries to unseat centrist President Emmanuel Macron in the upcoming election, taking place in two rounds on April 10 and 24

Macron has moved so far to the right that he might be to Le Pen's right at this point.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/FraserJMcQueen/status/1510691196259155977

"Society of spectacle" has entered common parlance in French for decades. I knew the phrase long before I knew about Debord.

[Person Man]

French far-right leader Le Pen softens image for election
French nationalist Marine Le Pen has softened her rhetoric and her image as she tries to unseat centrist President Emmanuel Macron in the upcoming election, taking place in two rounds on April 10 and 24

Macron has moved so far to the right that he might be to Le Pen's right at this point.

Is this hyperbole or do we have concrete examples?

[Antonio the Sixth]

French far-right leader Le Pen softens image for election
French nationalist Marine Le Pen has softened her rhetoric and her image as she tries to unseat centrist President Emmanuel Macron in the upcoming election, taking place in two rounds on April 10 and 24

Macron has moved so far to the right that he might be to Le Pen's right at this point.

Is this hyperbole or do we have concrete examples?

It is hyperbole, although it's true that the difference between the RN and supposedly "respectable" parties has never been so slight.

[MaxQue]

French far-right leader Le Pen softens image for election
French nationalist Marine Le Pen has softened her rhetoric and her image as she tries to unseat centrist President Emmanuel Macron in the upcoming election, taking place in two rounds on April 10 and 24

Macron has moved so far to the right that he might be to Le Pen's right at this point.

Is this hyperbole or do we have concrete examples?

It is hyperbole, although it's true that the difference between the RN and supposedly "respectable" parties has never been so slight.

I'm actually thinking Marine Le Pen as president wouldn't be that worse than Macron; my big fears are the FN people she would appoint to her Cabinet and all the local unvetted closet fascists elected to the Assembly.

[JimJamUK]

What are Le Pen’s economic policies these days? Would she be considered to Macron’s left economically, or is there still a Poujadist streak that is more populist/all things to all people?

[Antonio the Sixth]

What are Le Pen’s economic policies these days? Would she be considered to Macron’s left economically, or is there still a Poujadist streak that is more populist/all things to all people?

It's incoherent nonsense, by and large. She does the standard "raise people's salaries by cutting into social contributions (and please don't worry about gutting the already thin welfare state as a result)" sh*t that's become insanely popular among politicians these past decades among people who want to pretend to be #populist but don't want to do actual redistribution.

[BlueSwan]

Let's not beat around the bush here. A Le Pen presidency would be an unmitigated disaster. Absolutely not what the western world needs right now.

[Coldstream]

Let's not beat around the bush here. A Le Pen presidency would be an unmitigated disaster. Absolutely not what the western world needs right now.

Agreed. Macron is awful, the alternatives are even worse.

[Shilly]

https://twitter.com/rclmt/status/1510999339732246533
https://twitter.com/rclmt/status/1510999905753616389

[Red Velvet]

What are Le Pen’s economic policies these days? Would she be considered to Macron’s left economically, or is there still a Poujadist streak that is more populist/all things to all people?

She’s more in favor of economic interventionism than him if that’s what you mean by “to his left”, but I still wouldn’t call her a leftist on that sense by any means. Melenchon is that guy.

It’s on cultural/social matters that she’s definitely way to the right of Macron, who is a liberal on all the senses of that word (cultural/social - where being a liberal is associated to the left AND economical - where being a liberal is associated to the right).

[Tekken_Guy]

Let's not beat around the bush here. A Le Pen presidency would be an unmitigated disaster. Absolutely not what the western world needs right now.

Why is she even surging to begin with. Who are the voters who flipped to her recently?

[jaichind]

Wow, what a Le Pen surge in the latest poll.  It seems there is a significant anti-system anti-establishment Mélenchon->Le Pen vote if this latest poll is accurate.

[President Johnson]

Let's not beat around the bush here. A Le Pen presidency would be an unmitigated disaster. Absolutely not what the western world needs right now.

Absolutely, it would be terrible for unity of the European Union.

After Macron surged following the war outbreak, I actually thought he had this in the bag. Somehow this gives me Virginia 2021 vibes.

[Tekken_Guy]

Let's not beat around the bush here. A Le Pen presidency would be an unmitigated disaster. Absolutely not what the western world needs right now.

Absolutely, it would be terrible for unity of the European Union.

After Macron surged following the war outbreak, I actually thought he had this in the bag. Somehow this gives me Virginia 2021 vibes.

What is causing the collapse?

[parochial boy]

Wow, what a Le Pen surge in the latest poll.  It seems there is a significant anti-system anti-establishment Mélenchon->Le Pen vote if this latest poll is accurate.

No. From the crosstabs of the poll in question, Le Pen is getting roughly 5-7% of all of Mélenchon, Hamon and Macron's 2017 electorates and a little over 10% of Fillon's.

In the second round, Mélenchon's electorate split 38-24 in favour of Macron. Cross tabs are obviously not reliable on their own, but this is a cosistent pattern across almost all of the polling, at which point you can start to accept the general picture they are telling. The idea that there some big anti-establishment Mélenchon-Le Pen swing constituency is not true. Just as it wasn't true back in the 90s when the media was selling the idea that the FN's electorate consisted primarily of old PCF voters.

The reason that Le Pen is polling well is down to why she has been progressing for a couple of weeks at this point - in part the way the McKinsey scandal has snowballed; in part the (lack of a) Macron campaign; but probably mostly down to the fuel price crisis and the sudden surge of cost of living as an issue in people's minds. Le Pen has actually been making this a big theme of her's for a while, which makes the timing somewhat fortuitous. And - well - that much is apparent in the same poll, which actually has her rated as the most credible on the issue (47% judge her as credible on it, compared to 42% for Macron and 36% for Mélenchon).

What these polling numbers might do however, is start to raise alarm among the big crowd of people who have so far indicated that they won't vote in the second round. Especially since the polling is still indicating record breaking abstention, which probably is the biggest question mark around the numbers we are seeing at this point.

Because, for all an angry and disillusioned left wing voter can comfort themselves in a second round abstention when the polling is 55-45, when its 52-48 then you have to start asking yourselves some serious questions.

[Middle-aged Europe]

What these polling numbers might do however, is start to raise alarm among the big crowd of people who have so far indicated that they won't vote in the second round. Especially since the polling is still indicating record breaking abstention, which probably is the biggest question mark around the numbers we are seeing at this point.

Because, for all an angry and disillusioned left wing voter can comfort themselves in a second round abstention when the polling is 55-45, when its 52-48 then you have to start asking yourselves some serious questions.

All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What these polling numbers might do however, is start to raise alarm among the big crowd of people who have so far indicated that they won't vote in the second round. Especially since the polling is still indicating record breaking abstention, which probably is the biggest question mark around the numbers we are seeing at this point.

Because, for all an angry and disillusioned left wing voter can comfort themselves in a second round abstention when the polling is 55-45, when its 52-48 then you have to start asking yourselves some serious questions.

All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing.

Precisely why I've always been of the mind I'd vote for Macron in the second round against Le Pen if I was a French person.

[Mike88]

Let's not beat around the bush here. A Le Pen presidency would be an unmitigated disaster. Absolutely not what the western world needs right now.

Absolutely, it would be terrible for unity of the European Union.

After Macron surged following the war outbreak, I actually thought he had this in the bag. Somehow this gives me Virginia 2021 vibes.

What is causing the collapse?

Parochial boy resumes it quite well:

The reason that Le Pen is polling well is down to why she has been progressing for a couple of weeks at this point - in part the way the McKinsey scandal has snowballed; in part the (lack of a) Macron campaign; but probably mostly down to the fuel price crisis and the sudden surge of cost of living as an issue in people's minds. Le Pen has actually been making this a big theme of her's for a while, which makes the timing somewhat fortuitous. And - well - that much is apparent in the same poll, which actually has her rated as the most credible on the issue (47% judge her as credible on it, compared to 42% for Macron and 36% for Mélenchon).

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'm guessing that there will be a panic stage followed by a "front républicain" effect that will lead some leftists who would otherwise have abstained to rally to Macron. Probably significantly less than in 2017, though.

I hope to God that the 2027 runoff will be something other than "preppy neoliberal vs far-right demagogue" though. If we keep going this way there's a real chance France might fall.