French presidential election, 2022

[Geoffrey Howe]

Another great day for the French left!

[Zinneke]

People were afraid that this was a far right entryism job (Rousseau is basically their favorite whipping girl and a perfect caricature). For me it's either a deliberate attempt to put forward a crap candidate like they did with Eva Joly so that the PS/DVG one gets more momentum but the EELV don't lose face/get called a puppet party. Or its simply the crank wing acting up again, which given they had Rivasi as second on the European lists, is also entirely possible.

[parochial boy]

Yeah, my first thought was something along the lines of "this is excellent news for Anne Hidalgo".

Anyway Mélenchon and Zemmour had a debate on BFMTV this evening. I didn't watch because, frankly, I'd rather gouge my eyes out with a spoon. But, given that he has been... everywhere... over the last week or so (this is how censorship works apparently), I'm increasingly convinced that Zemmour's mooted candidacy is mostly intended to make Le Pen look like a reasonable, open minded and inclusive moderate by comparision.

[Zinneke]

Yeah, my first thought was something along the lines of "this is excellent news for Anne Hidalgo".

Anyway Mélenchon and Zemmour had a debate on BFMTV this evening. I didn't watch because, frankly, I'd rather gouge my eyes out with a spoon. But, given that he has been... everywhere... over the last week or so (this is how censorship works apparently), I'm increasingly convinced that Zemmour's mooted candidacy is mostly intended to make Le Pen look like a reasonable, open minded and inclusive moderate by comparision.

And yet somehow Darmamin on the other channel managed to be more xenophobic.

Le Pen suffers from Zemmour but crucially, and this is his thesis, so does the LR right. Zemmour is aiming for the Sarkozyste traditionaliste bourgeois + popular classes alliance. It makes a lot of sense that hes attracting the former. We had that type of classmate who bought Mélancolie Francaise and shilled for Sarkozy (yes even in Belgium). Its not just an ideas thing, Zemmour lives the pop-philosopher lifestyle they want, 28 year old Enarque mistress included, while lecturing about Western decadence.

[parochial boy]

Oh yeah, A Figaro journalist man of the people elite like Zemmour and his obsession with the decline of nation is a great fit for a certain stereotypical pretentious reactionary who lives the 16th arrondissement or the 92. Add in his certain fashionista appeal to a certain type of 20-something male graduate who lives in Lyon and spends his free time on sites like fdesouche. Although the latter crowd are much smaller than the publicity they are given.

I guess the point is that Zemmour; as one symptom of the wider Bolloré-ification of the media environment - because it's a whole circus - and because, lets not forget that Zemmour was given his big break by Ruquier on France 2 (a public channel); has massively normalised and made it not just acceptable, but mainstream to hold and express these sorts of opinions.

In so far as he is now a candidate too, and the Méluche is stupid enough to go and have a debate with him and further give him legitimacy as just a guy who is part of the mainstream debate - all that does, down the line, is to make it that little bit harder to hold the comparitively less deranged Le Pen up as some threat the republic and all the rest. How can you honestly present her as a threat while indulging in Zemmour's even more unhinged racism?

(although, that said, maybe we should talk about him less - odds are he doesn't stand, if he does that he winds up in single figures. And the real story is that he is a symptom of a wider issue, the endless publicity that the far right is given basically across the entire media spectrum. Not just the normal suspects but replicated in sources that would consider themselves respectable and even impartial, so it's not so much that he is the source of all evil himself).

[Lechasseur]

Yeah, my first thought was something along the lines of "this is excellent news for Anne Hidalgo".

Anyway Mélenchon and Zemmour had a debate on BFMTV this evening. I didn't watch because, frankly, I'd rather gouge my eyes out with a spoon. But, given that he has been... everywhere... over the last week or so (this is how censorship works apparently), I'm increasingly convinced that Zemmour's mooted candidacy is mostly intended to make Le Pen look like a reasonable, open minded and inclusive moderate by comparision.

So are you saying you think Zemmour is trying to help Marine? And if so does it work?

[parochial boy]

Yeah, my first thought was something along the lines of "this is excellent news for Anne Hidalgo".

Anyway Mélenchon and Zemmour had a debate on BFMTV this evening. I didn't watch because, frankly, I'd rather gouge my eyes out with a spoon. But, given that he has been... everywhere... over the last week or so (this is how censorship works apparently), I'm increasingly convinced that Zemmour's mooted candidacy is mostly intended to make Le Pen look like a reasonable, open minded and inclusive moderate by comparision.

So are you saying you think Zemmour is trying to help Marine? And if so does it work?

No, I don't think he is tying to help her. There is a definite chance he takes a slice of her vote away and winds up stopping her from reaching the second round. So by all accounts the RN are quite worried about his candidacy.

The issue is in part that as functioning as a more radical alternative, Zemmour makes Le Pen look comparitively moderate and thus more acccpetable. But even more so, that the whole circus surrounding Zemmour makes it quite difficult to make an argument that Le Pen is a dangerous antirépublicaine radical at the same time as indulging in Zemmour when he comes out with stuff like unaccompanied child migrants are all rapists or that every Muslim supports jihadism.

[parochial boy]

Jadot wins the EELV primary with 51,04%

He really didn't make it easy for himself, but in the end it's the guys everybody expected all along.

[Lechasseur]

Yeah, my first thought was something along the lines of "this is excellent news for Anne Hidalgo".

Anyway Mélenchon and Zemmour had a debate on BFMTV this evening. I didn't watch because, frankly, I'd rather gouge my eyes out with a spoon. But, given that he has been... everywhere... over the last week or so (this is how censorship works apparently), I'm increasingly convinced that Zemmour's mooted candidacy is mostly intended to make Le Pen look like a reasonable, open minded and inclusive moderate by comparision.

So are you saying you think Zemmour is trying to help Marine? And if so does it work?

No, I don't think he is tying to help her. There is a definite chance he takes a slice of her vote away and winds up stopping her from reaching the second round. So by all accounts the RN are quite worried about his candidacy.

On this note, it seems like polling is now suggesting that Le Pen and Zemmour are basically tied.

So there's a decent chance now that she doesn't make the second round, and even if she does, if Zemmour's almost tieing with her, I think it will show her off to be pretty weak within her own party, which is not a good look for a runoff.

[parochial boy]

Yeah, my first thought was something along the lines of "this is excellent news for Anne Hidalgo".

Anyway Mélenchon and Zemmour had a debate on BFMTV this evening. I didn't watch because, frankly, I'd rather gouge my eyes out with a spoon. But, given that he has been... everywhere... over the last week or so (this is how censorship works apparently), I'm increasingly convinced that Zemmour's mooted candidacy is mostly intended to make Le Pen look like a reasonable, open minded and inclusive moderate by comparision.

So are you saying you think Zemmour is trying to help Marine? And if so does it work?

No, I don't think he is tying to help her. There is a definite chance he takes a slice of her vote away and winds up stopping her from reaching the second round. So by all accounts the RN are quite worried about his candidacy.

On this note, it seems like polling is now suggesting that Le Pen and Zemmour are basically tied.

So there's a decent chance now that she doesn't make the second round, and even if she does, if Zemmour's almost tieing with her, I think it will show her off to be pretty weak within her own party, which is not a good look for a runoff.

I think in part that's down to the blanket coverage Zemmour has been getting over the last week or two. Remains to be seen if that holds up over the coming weeks and months. I would imagine not (memories of the brief Fillon and Hamon surges in 2017), but I genuinely wouldn't know how to predict what will happen. Up until this week the polls have looked more or less steady for ages, but remembering what happened over the final few months in just about every presidential election in recent years, with the added factor of an even more volatile electorate - there is relatively little I would rule out.

Think you're right about Le Pen's position in the party though. A certain clique including the likes of Marion Maréchal have been baying for a more hard line/traditionalists and economically liberal* line for a while now. And if Zemmour is genuinely threatening her in that way, then they will read it as meaning they were right all along. Especially as the "front républicain" seems to have slipped against Zemmour - as if the only real problem was only ever the surname, rather than the programme.

* In the european style - right wing

[Geoffrey Howe]

Manuel Valls suggests "republicans" must come up with a "drastic change" to the immigration system, including suspension of family reunions if they want people to vote for them.

In other news, LR primary will be in December but Bertrand still doesn't want to participate. He has the highest poll numbers from that side.

[Lechasseur]

Yeah, my first thought was something along the lines of "this is excellent news for Anne Hidalgo".

Anyway Mélenchon and Zemmour had a debate on BFMTV this evening. I didn't watch because, frankly, I'd rather gouge my eyes out with a spoon. But, given that he has been... everywhere... over the last week or so (this is how censorship works apparently), I'm increasingly convinced that Zemmour's mooted candidacy is mostly intended to make Le Pen look like a reasonable, open minded and inclusive moderate by comparision.

So are you saying you think Zemmour is trying to help Marine? And if so does it work?

No, I don't think he is tying to help her. There is a definite chance he takes a slice of her vote away and winds up stopping her from reaching the second round. So by all accounts the RN are quite worried about his candidacy.

On this note, it seems like polling is now suggesting that Le Pen and Zemmour are basically tied.

So there's a decent chance now that she doesn't make the second round, and even if she does, if Zemmour's almost tieing with her, I think it will show her off to be pretty weak within her own party, which is not a good look for a runoff.

I think in part that's down to the blanket coverage Zemmour has been getting over the last week or two. Remains to be seen if that holds up over the coming weeks and months. I would imagine not (memories of the brief Fillon and Hamon surges in 2017), but I genuinely wouldn't know how to predict what will happen. Up until this week the polls have looked more or less steady for ages, but remembering what happened over the final few months in just about every presidential election in recent years, with the added factor of an even more volatile electorate - there is relatively little I would rule out.

Think you're right about Le Pen's position in the party though. A certain clique including the likes of Marion Maréchal have been baying for a more hard line/traditionalists and economically liberal* line for a while now. And if Zemmour is genuinely threatening her in that way, then they will read it as meaning they were right all along. Especially as the "front républicain" seems to have slipped against Zemmour - as if the only real problem was only ever the surname, rather than the programme.

* In the european style - right wing

I suspect at the end Le Pen does still finish above Zemmour, but she's clearly no where near as strong as people think she is. Basically only wwc people in the Nord and the Southwest actually like her.

I'm actually of the opinion that going down the Marion route would be smarter for them longer term. She's definitely more likeable than Marine and she's capable of appealing to LR (who are more or less like her at this point anyway), while the left will never vote for Marine nor will the non RN already right.

I do think RN's programme is a big issue for them, Marine's basically trying to go for a demographic that will never vote for them anyway (the left).

And how has the front republicain failed against Zemmour here?

[Lechasseur]

Manuel Valls suggests "republicans" must come up with a "drastic change" to the immigration system, including suspension of family reunions if they want people to vote for them.

In other news, LR primary will be in December but Bertrand still doesn't want to participate. He has the highest poll numbers from that side.

Did Valls have any other suggestions other than suspending family reunions?

And also, I'm not sure what exactly that entails? Like I think most Western expats with families move here with their families at the same time, would that count? Or is that another procedure?

[Zinneke]

Manuel Valls suggests "republicans" must come up with a "drastic change" to the immigration system, including suspension of family reunions if they want people to vote for them.

In other news, LR primary will be in December but Bertrand still doesn't want to participate. He has the highest poll numbers from that side.

Did Valls have any other suggestions other than suspending family reunions?

And also, I'm not sure what exactly that entails? Like I think most Western expats with families move here with their families at the same time, would that count? Or is that another procedure?

Depends what you mean by Western, but yes it is the same procedure that the "Valls Left" want to tighten.

Its a veiled attack at French Morrocans/ Algerians and I guess some sub-saharan africans who still have arranged marriages and thus marry back home having never met the person then repatriate them. You also have fake sons and daughters who have their IDs forged etc. Basically the idea is to tighten the legislation so that these arranged marriages are not incentivised and you have to have proof you lived together and married back in your home country or something like that.

I am not defending Valls or the others  because its clear it is again a case by case issue and they want to solve it with very broad strokes targeting specific nationalities without saying so . However, having lived and worked in environments where you see the cynicism of some people traffickers first hand, its not an issue that can be ignored either. (expecting another wave of D-XX avatars to parrot the standard cultural relativist line).



Anyway, im pleased Jadot one. He'll improve the level of discourse hopefully.

[parochial boy]

As the old saying goes, there are two types of people in the world, people who have never heard of Manuel Valls and people who think he’s a wanker.

A man whose sole contribution to Barcelona was this viral hit

He’s not really a relevant political actor any more. Precisely because literally no-one likes him.

As for the front républicain and zemmour, the debate with jonluk is an example. But remember that he is a pure creation of the media establishment. There is much less interest in freezing him out, especially because he can be relied upon to generate a reaction and therefore clicks and therefore advert revenue than there was back when the key outrage generator was Le Pen père but back when the media business model and environment was different. So in that respect, any other candidates have no choice but to be seen engaging with him and on his favoured themes.

For Jadot, at the end of the day, either him or Hidalgo will have to demark themselves or it’s a bust. The worst outcome is that both just sit on roughly equal mid single digit scores in to the spring.

[Lechasseur]

That Manuel Valls parody's hilarious haha (and yes I already knew it quite well lol)

[Geoffrey Howe]

Zemmour has apparently been moaning that the subjunctive is no longer taught in schools. TBH I don't really know how you can speak/write French without the subjunctive.

But it seems like he's going for more of a traditionalist hard-right line (including maybe some of Fillon's electorate?) than Marine Le Pen.

[Alcibiades]

Zemmour has apparently been moaning that the subjunctive is no longer taught in schools. TBH I don't really know how you can speak/write French without the subjunctive.

But it seems like he's going for more of a traditionalist hard-right line (including maybe some of Fillon's electorate?) than Marine Le Pen.

I was taught the subjunctive in the not-too-distant past for GCSE French, so it would indeed be funny if it was no longer being taught in French schools . Then again, hard right demagogues have never let facts get in the way of a good tale from the trenches of the culture wars.

[parochial boy]

Bit rich for a man who doesn't know the difference between péché and pêché

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So the general sentiment in France right now is... for an entire political spectrum of different types of racists as candidates? A hard-Right racist of one sort, a hard-Right racist of another kind, a Conservative racist, a liberal racist, a left-wing racist...'

[BabyAlligator]

A left wing, a conservative racist or a liberal racist ? Do you really think Macron, Bertand and Mélenchon are racists ? If so, you are really brainwashed.

[Red Velvet]

So the general sentiment in France right now is... for an entire political spectrum of different types of racists as candidates? A hard-Right racist of one sort, a hard-Right racist of another kind, a Conservative racist, a liberal racist, a left-wing racist...'

The candidates are simply reflecting the current general sentiment in France in order to be electorally viable. The traditional Gaullist right and also the socialists are completely dead and don’t appeal to the French population like they did in the past.

French elections will be a sh**tshow not because of lack of options, but because France is one of the countries with strongest anti-immigration fervor right now. Even Macron (shockingly the least right-wing option in the top 4 according to the polls) has to adopt some of the racist subtext in order to not be rejected by French society.

Last IPSOS poll was:

Macron (“center”) - 24%
Le Pen (right) - 16%
Zemmour (far-right) - 15%
Bertrand (center-right) - 14%
Mélenchon (left) - 9%
Jadot (greens) - 9%
Hidalgo (center-left) - 5,5%
Others: don’t reach more than 2% each

Just to give an idea of how much right-wing France is right now. And the sentiment only grows. I think it’s for the better that someone like Le Pen gets elected so that the trend can reverse sooner.

[DL]

Can someone explain how anyone running for President for "Les Republicains" would distinguish themselves from Macron? Seems to me like Macron has governed very much like an LR moderate cut from the same cloth as someone like Alain Juppe. Is there ANY issue that actually separates Macron from people like Bertrand or Pecresse or is basically just offering the same thing with a different label?   

[LAKISYLVANIA]

I also think it's better Le Pen gets elected, because I really am afraid of a different RN or Zemmour getting elected. I also think it's better if all of Europe take some distance from France, just like we do with Hungary.

[BabyAlligator]

Can someone explain how anyone running for President for "Les Republicains" would distinguish themselves from Macron? Seems to me like Macron has governed very much like an LR moderate cut from the same cloth as someone like Alain Juppe. Is there ANY issue that actually separates Macron from people like Bertrand or Pecresse or is basically just offering the same thing with a different label?   

I'd say they are pretty locksteped to each other. Les Republicains might be a little more economically conservative than Macron. They also try to pander a little more to christians. Their electorate is currently also older.