French presidential election, 2022

[Zinneke]

Or, more to the point, the multiplication of left candidates and the mediocre polling both individually and collectively points to one thing in particular - the weakness of the left wing candidates who are standing. The reason they're all floundering in the single figures is that none of them has a message, a line, an anything that is unifying enough or frankly good enough to go beyond that.

Which of course is a endless issue in and of itself. If "The Left" collectively does not think it can get into round 2 against Macron, then all the candidates who actually could excite people stay out and the overall quality lowers. Since nobody dynamic is consolidating the field, other 'B listers' see the B listers that are running floundering and think "well I'm as good as them, I can save us!" And so the field multiplies.

Who are?
IMO fundamental problem is that there aren't enough left-of center voters in France.

That is purely the fault of the centre-left being nonexistent and a joke in France ever since PS’s implosion.

Yep and Melenchon is the poor victim who makes attempts to build bridges with the left-wing voters he needs, gotchya!

[PSOL]

Or, more to the point, the multiplication of left candidates and the mediocre polling both individually and collectively points to one thing in particular - the weakness of the left wing candidates who are standing. The reason they're all floundering in the single figures is that none of them has a message, a line, an anything that is unifying enough or frankly good enough to go beyond that.

Which of course is a endless issue in and of itself. If "The Left" collectively does not think it can get into round 2 against Macron, then all the candidates who actually could excite people stay out and the overall quality lowers. Since nobody dynamic is consolidating the field, other 'B listers' see the B listers that are running floundering and think "well I'm as good as them, I can save us!" And so the field multiplies.

Who are?
IMO fundamental problem is that there aren't enough left-of center voters in France.

That is purely the fault of the centre-left being nonexistent and a joke in France ever since PS’s implosion.

Yep and Melenchon is the poor victim who makes attempts to build bridges with the left-wing voters he needs, gotchya!

Why allow perpetual losers and wreckers into your party? Melenchon already took several PS machines propped up by reformists, he already has most of the working class vote and it’s not like adding yuppies, trust fund bleeding heart types, and wannabes would do much for him.

Also, Melenchon is the major force of the French centre-left, and boy while he has problems, bottom feeders and turncoats he knows to repel.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Hasn't a segment of the PS moved into Macron's party as well? Let's not forget that Macron got his start as Economics Minister in Francois Hollande's government so he has likely sucked up a lot of the more "third way"/centrist types from the PS

Yes - a significant number of members and quite a lot of voters. Of course there's a precedent for this: much of the SFIO base voted for Poher in '69.

[parochial boy]

Hasn't a segment of the PS moved into Macron's party as well? Let's not forget that Macron got his start as Economics Minister in Francois Hollande's government so he has likely sucked up a lot of the more "third way"/centrist types from the PS

Yes - a significant number of members and quite a lot of voters. Of course there's a precedent for this: much of the SFIO base voted for Poher in '69.

With the utterly predictable note that a bunch of them, notably Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian and Health Minister Olivier Véran are technically not members of LREM but of a separate party called Territoires de progrès that supports Macron's government. Much as Agir and Édouard Philippe's Horizons do on the right.

Because, well who knows, you ain't serious unless you've got your pointless microparty or something

[Zinneke]

Hasn't a segment of the PS moved into Macron's party as well? Let's not forget that Macron got his start as Economics Minister in Francois Hollande's government so he has likely sucked up a lot of the more "third way"/centrist types from the PS

Yes - a significant number of members and quite a lot of voters. Of course there's a precedent for this: much of the SFIO base voted for Poher in '69.

With the utterly predictable note that a bunch of them, notably Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian and Health Minister Olivier Véran are technically not members of LREM but of a separate party called Territoires de progrès that supports Macron's government. Much as Agir and Édouard Philippe's Horizons do on the right.

Because, well who knows, you ain't serious unless you've got your pointless microparty or something

Also because LREM is a total mess.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

With the utterly predictable note that a bunch of them, notably Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian and Health Minister Olivier Véran are technically not members of LREM but of a separate party called Territoires de progrès that supports Macron's government. Much as Agir and Édouard Philippe's Horizons do on the right.

Because, well who knows, you ain't serious unless you've got your pointless microparty or something

*La Marseillaise plays in the background.*

[MaxQue]

Or, more to the point, the multiplication of left candidates and the mediocre polling both individually and collectively points to one thing in particular - the weakness of the left wing candidates who are standing. The reason they're all floundering in the single figures is that none of them has a message, a line, an anything that is unifying enough or frankly good enough to go beyond that.

Which of course is a endless issue in and of itself. If "The Left" collectively does not think it can get into round 2 against Macron, then all the candidates who actually could excite people stay out and the overall quality lowers. Since nobody dynamic is consolidating the field, other 'B listers' see the B listers that are running floundering and think "well I'm as good as them, I can save us!" And so the field multiplies.

Who are?
IMO fundamental problem is that there aren't enough left-of center voters in France.

That is purely the fault of the centre-left being nonexistent and a joke in France ever since PS’s implosion.

Yep and Melenchon is the poor victim who makes attempts to build bridges with the left-wing voters he needs, gotchya!

Why allow perpetual losers and wreckers into your party? Melenchon already took several PS machines propped up by reformists, he already has most of the working class vote and it’s not like adding yuppies, trust fund bleeding heart types, and wannabes would do much for him.

Also, Melenchon is the major force of the French centre-left, and boy while he has problems, bottom feeders and turncoats he knows to repel.

No. His support is actually quite educated. It's telling the only 5000+ towns run by his party have below average shares of "ouvriers", while having above average shares of managers and people in "intellectual jobs".

His base is young university graduates, pretty much.

[EastAnglianLefty]

With the utterly predictable note that a bunch of them, notably Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian and Health Minister Olivier Véran are technically not members of LREM but of a separate party called Territoires de progrès that supports Macron's government. Much as Agir and Édouard Philippe's Horizons do on the right.

Because, well who knows, you ain't serious unless you've got your pointless microparty or something

*La Marseillaise plays in the background.*

I always find it weird when watching Baron Noir how much more functional the political system depicted within it is than the real one.

[Zinneke]

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Can somoene give me an overview on the immigration issue in france at the moment ? Like how the current system works, what the various far-right parties want to do change the system and in particular what is the difference between the various far-right canidates with regards to migration policy ?

[parochial boy]

So the Primaire Populaire declared it's results. You'll never guess who won. Hint, it's the person that it was very definitely not supporting all along. With the score of "Good".

Absolutely wonderful stuff. Definitely not a farce or a complete waste of time at all.

[PSOL]

Given that Jadot and Melenchon both did not endorse the primary, would it really matter?

[warandwar]

Want to meet the people choosing between Taubira and Le Pen.

[Tirnam]

The constitutionnal council has published the first wave of nominations, only 313 today

MACRON Emmanuel 105   
HIDALGO Anne 48
PÉCRESSE Valérie 34
ROUSSEL Fabien 30
LASSALLE Jean 15
MÉLENCHON Jean-Luc 14
ZEMMOUR Éric 14
ARTHAUD Nathalie 12
JADOT Yannick 11
ASSELINEAU François 10
DUPONT-AIGNAN Nicola 10
POUTOU Philippe 4
LE PEN Marine 2
THOUY Hélène 2
KAZIB Anasse 1
KUZMANOVIC Georges 1

[Continential]

I find it funny how Panzergirl is tied with the Animal Party's candidate on the amount of nominations they have.

[Helsinkian]

Is there a procedure on how to proceed in a (theoretical) scenario where no one receives the required number of nominations?

[jaichind]

There is some overlap between Mélenchon and Le Pen.  I assume that is the anti-system vote.

[Oryxslayer]

To conclude the point of eventual outcomes, the economist released a presidential election model, and of course the outcomes highly favor the Incumbent:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1488895289398337537?s=20&t=qRdkvB_46...

[buritobr]

Cluster 17 poll

Macron 22.5%, Le Pen 14.5%, Zemmour 14.5%, Pécresse 14%, Mélenchon 13%, Taubira 6%, Jadot 5%, Hidalgo 2%, Russel 2%

In the group of 18-24 old people
Mélenchon 30%, Le Pen 26%, Macron 13%, Jadot 11%, Pécresse 5%, Taubira 4%, Hidalgo 3%, Zemmour 2%

[parochial boy]

I looked it up because those numbers are a little off from what the other pollsters are showing. Apparently Cluster 17 have this thing where they divide the population into 16 distinct "clusters" based on filling in a questionnaire about whatever topics. Then calculated Voting Intentions based on the weight of each cluster and support within each.

Do the test if you want

Which is in inverted commas interested, feels a bit gimmicky and is a bit of an indirect way to get to voting intention. And in any case the traditional pollsters were pretty decent last time round, so is there so much of a need for the sorts of alternative pollsters?

The 18-24 breakdown seems like a sort of exaggerated picture of the trends other pollsters are showing. As in, Jadot and Mélenchon doing consistently better than their national polling; Le Pen and Taubira doing inconsistently better; Macron, Hidalgo and Zemmour normally slightly below their national numbers and Pécresse in a ditch.

So, you know, seems like a marketing job.

[Tirnam]

Macron has reached the 500 nominations to be candidate.

Macron : 529

Pécresse : 324
Hidalgo : 266
Roussel : 159
Arthaud : 138
Lassalle : 124
Mélenchon : 100
Jadot : 80
Dupont-Aignan : 77
Zemmour : 58
Asselineau : 56
Poutou : 54
Le Pen : 35
Taubira : 8

https://presidentielle2022.conseil-constitutionnel.fr/les-parrainages/parrainages-valides-par-candidat.html

[Coldstream]

For those more knowledgeable: What’s Taubira’s chance of not getting enough nominations? Doesn’t the lack of a party machine really hamper her? And unlike with Zemmour there’s not really an argument to endorse her to weaken a rival.

[parochial boy]

For those more knowledgeable: What’s Taubira’s chance of not getting enough nominations? Doesn’t the lack of a party machine really hamper her? And unlike with Zemmour there’s not really an argument to endorse her to weaken a rival.

Could be famous last words but I don't see her having too much trouble getting in. She is a former government minister, and has access to the PS and (whatever they are calling themselves these days) PRG ones; a ready-for-measure activist network and all the rest. Plus the primaire populaire win does give her some  degree of legitimacy in so far as it still was an excercise involving 400'000 odd people.

I think her biggest fragility comes from the fact she didn't even put herself forward until December. I mean, who knows exactly what was going on in the background, I imagine definitely some testing of the water re-mayors stuff. But that said, only starting a big push to get people on board from that point would mean a much shorter time frame to do the necessary rounds in order to get 500 people signatures.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1491029747027042305

This could be the most humiliating election result for a center-left candidate since the origin of it's ideology on a global scale

-> I'd still back Roussel, i don't care about Melenchonmomentum. I stand with Roussel!

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Which is in inverted commas interested, feels a bit gimmicky and is a bit of an indirect way to get to voting intention. And in any case the traditional pollsters were pretty decent last time round, so is there so much of a need for the sorts of alternative pollsters?

The 18-24 breakdown seems like a sort of exaggerated picture of the trends other pollsters are showing. As in, Jadot and Mélenchon doing consistently better than their national polling; Le Pen and Taubira doing inconsistently better; Macron, Hidalgo and Zemmour normally slightly below their national numbers and Pécresse in a ditch.

So, you know, seems like a marketing job.

They saw the same thing happening in 2017. Melenchon and Greens are popular among young. LR really aren't.