French presidential election, 2022

[Zinneke]

What are changes of Le Pen actually winning?  Its highly likely she does better than 2017 and probably cracks 40%, but could she actually win? 

I find this highly unlikely. I think it's pretty clear that she and Macron will make it to the second round. Then at least half the country will hate her more than Macron. You have the issue of turnout, and certainly his victory will be less convincing than last time, but I think three things are working in his favour:

1) Although you won't hear it here, he is very popular...by French standards. He has a floor of about 30% approval, which is much higher than the previous two presidents. This is more extraordinary than it might seem: it means he is likely to be the first president in power to be re-elected since de Gaulle.

wut

[Geoffrey Howe]

What are changes of Le Pen actually winning?  Its highly likely she does better than 2017 and probably cracks 40%, but could she actually win?  

I find this highly unlikely. I think it's pretty clear that she and Macron will make it to the second round. Then at least half the country will hate her more than Macron. You have the issue of turnout, and certainly his victory will be less convincing than last time, but I think three things are working in his favour:

1) Although you won't hear it here, he is very popular...by French standards. He has a floor of about 30% approval, which is much higher than the previous two presidents. This is more extraordinary than it might seem: it means he is likely to be the first president in power to be re-elected since de Gaulle.

wut

Chirac was PM when Mitterrand was re-elected; Jospin was PM when Chirac was re-elected.

[Zinneke]

Barnier has a book out. Not strange timing given its about Brexit,but still...

[Geoffrey Howe]

A sobering thought: Mme Le Pen is now on her third presidential bid. So was M. Mitterrand in 1981.

[Zinneke]

Yeah the French obsession of staying in the game despite failing is costing a lot of potential to a formation like RN, never mind Mélenchon single handedly doing his best to destroy any chance of a left-wing candidate going through to the second round (when the opportunity is there).

French politicians needs to realise the pace of society has changed, that people become old news much more quickly, and that its not necessarily a terrible Trostkyite thing to renew your political class every so often. Macron actually understood and still understands that - its why I can see him serving a second term and then swiftly moving on, despite his Jupiterian complex. 

Btw - it turns out 80% of France's millionaires are millionaires because of inheritance. Trickle down economics everyone!

[Zinneke]

Eric Zemmour is open to running. Could hurt Panzergirl.

[parochial boy]

Ah well, it's in the bag for Macron now he's won the youth vote by appearing in that video with Mcfly et Carlito...

Going on 15m views at the moment, which is... quite impressive in that it's more than one in every 5 people in the country. And not far of the 17m who watched the second round debate in 2017.

(and in other youtube news - we have a far right vlogger releasing a video calling for the "murder of leftists". France continues to be the worst timeline)

[Geoffrey Howe]

Ah well, it's in the bag for Macron now he's won the youth vote by appearing in that video with Mcfly et Carlito...

Going on 15m views at the moment, which is... quite impressive in that it's more than one in every 5 people in the country. And not far of the 17m who watched the second round debate in 2017.

(and in other youtube news - we have a far right vlogger releasing a video calling for the "murder of leftists". France continues to be the worst timeline)

I think The Spectator had a piece about this saying "Macron fiddles as France burns."
The right wing press' hatred of Macron in the UK is quite odd (though explainable). They think of him as an irritating sanctimonious liberal.

[parochial boy]

Ah well, it's in the bag for Macron now he's won the youth vote by appearing in that video with Mcfly et Carlito...

Going on 15m views at the moment, which is... quite impressive in that it's more than one in every 5 people in the country. And not far of the 17m who watched the second round debate in 2017.

(and in other youtube news - we have a far right vlogger releasing a video calling for the "murder of leftists". France continues to be the worst timeline)

I think The Spectator had a piece about this saying "Macron fiddles as France burns."
The right wing press' hatred of Macron in the UK is quite odd (though explainable). They think of him as an irritating sanctimonious liberal.

It's really... one hell of a marketing coup that he still gives off that image abroad, given, you know, what his government has actually been, both in rhetoric and in policy. I dare say it is stems from him being reduced to  "pro-european" in anglosphere media talk, and the completely fantasised image of the the EU that exists among both pro and anti-Brexit circles in the UK.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Ah well, it's in the bag for Macron now he's won the youth vote by appearing in that video with Mcfly et Carlito...

Going on 15m views at the moment, which is... quite impressive in that it's more than one in every 5 people in the country. And not far of the 17m who watched the second round debate in 2017.

(and in other youtube news - we have a far right vlogger releasing a video calling for the "murder of leftists". France continues to be the worst timeline)

I think The Spectator had a piece about this saying "Macron fiddles as France burns."
The right wing press' hatred of Macron in the UK is quite odd (though explainable). They think of him as an irritating sanctimonious liberal.

It's really... one hell of a marketing coup that he still gives off that image abroad, given, you know, what his government has actually been, both in rhetoric and in policy. I dare say it is stems from him being reduced to  "pro-european" in anglosphere media talk, and the completely fantasised image of the the EU that exists among both pro and anti-Brexit circles in the UK.

Do you not find him sanctimonious and irritating...

[parochial boy]

Ah well, it's in the bag for Macron now he's won the youth vote by appearing in that video with Mcfly et Carlito...

Going on 15m views at the moment, which is... quite impressive in that it's more than one in every 5 people in the country. And not far of the 17m who watched the second round debate in 2017.

(and in other youtube news - we have a far right vlogger releasing a video calling for the "murder of leftists". France continues to be the worst timeline)

I think The Spectator had a piece about this saying "Macron fiddles as France burns."
The right wing press' hatred of Macron in the UK is quite odd (though explainable). They think of him as an irritating sanctimonious liberal.

It's really... one hell of a marketing coup that he still gives off that image abroad, given, you know, what his government has actually been, both in rhetoric and in policy. I dare say it is stems from him being reduced to  "pro-european" in anglosphere media talk, and the completely fantasised image of the the EU that exists among both pro and anti-Brexit circles in the UK.

Do you not find him sanctimonious and irritating...

Yes, but he's French, it's basically their defining national characteristic.

[Zinneke]

Macron has been assaulted (slapped) at a high school where there was a protest. Royalist slogans were heard.

[Sir Mohamed]

Macron has been assaulted (slapped) at a high school where there was a protest. Royalist slogans were heard.

Ugh.

Here's the video:

https://twitter.com/AaronVells/status/1402265259994456072

[Conservatopia]

This is it - the monarchy is coming back!

[Mike88]

Curiously, basically all French Presidents since De Gaulle, at least that's my impression, have a bit of a "Sun King" aura, as they act like kings. Mitterrand was even labeled as "the prince". The only expection may be François Hollande, in my view.

Also, remember when flour was the weapon of choice of the French against their politicians?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Curiously, basically all French Presidents since De Gaulle, at least that's my impression, have a bit of a "Sun King" aura, as they act like kings. Mitterrand was even labeled as "the prince". The only expection may be Françoise Hollande, in my view.

Also, remember when flour was the weapon of choice of the French against their politicians?

Much like the original Sun King, you have the issue that none of De Gaulle's successors can possibly live up to the role that he defined.

[Lechasseur]

https://www.lci.fr/politique/sondage-exclusif-presidentielle-2022-le-scenario-macron-le-pen-se-renforce-la-presidente-du-rn-en-hausse-2186903.html

In this poll from May 24th, Macron beats Le Pen 54-46

He does it by winning under 25s and over 65s, but Le Pen would win the 25-64 year old groups

How would you interpret this, and what do you think this means for possible evolution going towards the election and beyond?

[beesley]

https://www.lci.fr/politique/sondage-exclusif-presidentielle-2022-le-scenario-macron-le-pen-se-renforce-la-presidente-du-rn-en-hausse-2186903.html

In this poll from May 24th, Macron beats Le Pen 54-46

He does it by winning under 25s and over 65s, but Le Pen would win the 25-64 year old groups

How would you interpret this, and what do you think this means for possible evolution going towards the election and beyond?

I think these coalitions make more sense than one might think. If anything the vote against Le Pen from the elderly is still a conservative one - not voting for someone who isn't anything like a traditional French leader. Le Pen isn't a cultural Catholic either, is she? A lot of that group will remember De Gaulle's final years. The vote among the under 25s is more understandable, with their liberal internationalism and many of them being students or not actively looking for work.

[Geoffrey Howe]

https://www.lci.fr/politique/sondage-exclusif-presidentielle-2022-le-scenario-macron-le-pen-se-renforce-la-presidente-du-rn-en-hausse-2186903.html

In this poll from May 24th, Macron beats Le Pen 54-46

He does it by winning under 25s and over 65s, but Le Pen would win the 25-64 year old groups

How would you interpret this, and what do you think this means for possible evolution going towards the election and beyond?

I think these coalitions make more sense than one might think. If anything the vote against Le Pen from the elderly is still a conservative one - not voting for someone who isn't anything like a traditional French leader. Le Pen isn't a cultural Catholic either, is she? A lot of that group will remember De Gaulle's final years. The vote among the under 25s is more understandable, with their liberal internationalism and many of them being students or not actively looking for work.

Her best group is "Catholic but not practising."
There seems to have been a strong Catholic tradition on what you might call the liberal, pro-European right - e.g. Giscard - which I suppose you could argue Macron falls into. Since practising Catholics tend to be older, this is not surprising. Plus since Macron has governed more like the traditional right, who do best amongst over-65s in France (and most countries), he has a lot of support amongst pensioners; even though he did raise taxes on them.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Yeah the French obsession of staying in the game despite failing is costing a lot of potential to a formation like RN, never mind Mélenchon single handedly doing his best to destroy any chance of a left-wing candidate going through to the second round (when the opportunity is there).

There seems to be a lot of that in Peru too. I’ve been meaning to make a table of who has ran since like 1980 or so. There’s a lot of people (several of whom won) that have made a lot of attempts at the office.

[PSOL]

The NPA factional struggle is finally going to result in a split as several member organizations leave to back FI and Melenchon. It wholly won’t matter much, but any extra support now means the wider left will have better chances at a microscopic bump in retaining seats.

Don’t bother reading the article, it’s the soon-to-be rump NPA whining about it.

[Umengus]

last polls have mariani (RN) wining PACA. (52-48, opinion way, today)

[parochial boy]

https://twitter.com/SamGontier/status/1403065926937948160

tonight we learn that a right wing extremist slapping Macron is... actually the left's fault

*thumbs up emoji*

I know I should pay less attention to what is going in France, but... it's like watching a car drive off a cliff, as horrifying as it is you just can't tear your eyes away

[warandwar]

Perfect encapsulation of Finklekraut Thought

[Geoffrey Howe]

https://twitter.com/SamGontier/status/1403065926937948160
tonight we learn that a right wing extremist slapping Macron is... actually the left's fault

*thumbs up emoji*

I know I should pay less attention to what is going in France, but... it's like watching a car drive off a cliff, as horrifying as it is you just can't tear your eyes away

Even the right is left-wing in France...