French presidential election, 2022

[DL]

Whatever happened to the party of Jacques Chirac and Alain Juppé?

[Continential]

lol at Bertrand being in fourth place

[Oryxslayer]

Whatever happened to the party of Jacques Chirac and Alain Juppé?

They figured out that it was better to work with rather than challenge Macron, meaning everyone left who actually wants to go for the office has to be be sufficiently divergent from both those guys and Macron.

[DL]

If you are Macron who do you WANT LR to run? Ciotti or Pecresse or does it matter?

[Zinneke]

LR online primary 'congress' first round results from today, before the runoff tomorrow/Saturday:

Éric Ciotti 25.59%
Valérie Pécresse 25%
Michel Barnier 23.93%
Xavier Bertrand 22.36%
Philippe Juvin 3.13%

t/o 80.80% (113,038 votes)

Pretty huge surprise: nobody saw Ciotti come close to winning. If you're wondering, all are basically hard-right and obsessively focused on immigration and security, except maybe Juvin. Ciotti is the most far-right: he'd support Zemmour 'his friend' over Macron, and had the most far-right platform of any candidate. Pécresse opportunistically also campaigned on pretty hard-right themes.

Honestly Pecresse isnt really hard right, but because of the Zemmour hype sort of adopted the themes in a really awkward way. Pecresse in the debate last night on France 2 where they discussed Health and the economy just shoehorned in a "can we talk about ISLAMISM" that everybody saw through. Its otherwise quite clear she is going for the economic liberal but sensible mother of the catholic house image.

If you are Macron who do you WANT LR to run? Ciotti or Pecresse or does it matter?

Ciotti for the reasons above. Also Ciotti means basically the death of LR.

[Senator Incitatus]

1. The video makes all these evocations to French "grandeur" (some would say "delusions of grandeur") - and yet the entire soundtrack is Beethoven - who was German! You'd think he'd at least find some inspirational French music.

My guess is Zemmour is smart and the music choice was designed to elicit this sort of response so that he can fire back that Beethoven's Symphony No. 7 is (like so much of his work) a reflection on Napoleonic France and therefore appropriate for a campaign in the Napoleonic tradition. You could fire back that the Allegretto is a negative assessment of Napoleon, but then Zemmour could fire back that he is the sort of Frenchman who proudly aims to be seen negatively by Germans.

This sort of mistake-that-isn't tactic was a favourite of Nixon and all great modern politicians.

[Cassius]

Whatever happened to the party of Jacques Chirac and Alain Juppé?

I think Etch-a-sketching to whatever position is perceived to be popular with no regard for past statements can still be found across the French political spectrum.

[DL]

I had never even heard of Ciotti before. Who is he?

[Coldstream]

It’s a bit like the 2016/17 primary, everyone was concentrating on Juppe & Sarkozy that no one saw the hardest right candidate (Fillon) come through. Though nominating Ciotti seems like a good way to turn the party in to simply an auxiliary of Zemmour or Le Pen, and to finish 6th. Though I’d still expect Pecresse to win the primary now.

[Continential]

I presume LR/the broad center-right will get third place in the legislative elections if Ciotti is their nominee.

[Antonio the Sixth]

ughhhh, what a horrible choice. Ciotti is a far-right ghoul and Pécresse has been the bane of the area where I grew up for many decades. She's on paper more "presentable", but in practice she's a cynical creep who'd do anything for power.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It makes perfect sense to consider nominating a candidate proposing a mixture of hardcore neoliberalism and fascism as there is such a massive shortage of both amongst the candidates already declared.

[Umengus]

It makes perfect sense to consider nominating a candidate proposing a mixture of hardcore neoliberalism and fascism as there is such a massive shortage of both amongst the candidates already declared.

ciotti is not fascist. And not "neoliberal".

[Hash]

I had never even heard of Ciotti before. Who is he?

Deputy for the Alpes-Maritimes (for a Nice constituency) since 2007, boss of the powerful LR federation in the department since 2018, former president of the departmental council between 2008 and 2015. He began as a protégé of Christian Estrosi, the mayor of Nice since 2008, but since 2017-8, when Estrosi became more moderate and more macronista-inclined, the two men have become sworn enemies.

His far-right standing is somewhat more credible and genuine than the cynical, opportunistic hard-right posturing of Barnier, Bertrand and Pécresse. He's been known for his focus on security/authority, public order and immigration issues for most of the time he's been in parliament - in 2010, he was the author of a law which suspended or eliminated family benefits in case of frequent, unjustified school absenteeism of a student (repealed in 2013), and in 2011 of another law which created a military supervision for juvenile delinquents over 16.

He was a loyal Sarkozy and Fillon ally (and has made a point of saying that he was the only candidate who stood by Fillon in 2017 after the scandal). In 2017, he refused to endorse Macron in the runoff, and now says that the only difference between LR and RN is LR's capacity to govern. He claims to be loyal to the heritage of Pasqua and Séguin (i.e. souverainiste right), although he's a hardcore '80s neoliberal which Séguin wasn't.

[Zinneke]

It makes perfect sense to consider nominating a candidate proposing a mixture of hardcore neoliberalism and fascism as there is such a massive shortage of both amongst the candidates already declared.

ciotti is not fascist. And not "neoliberal".

you should know!

and I think the prince was referring to Pecresse

[DL]

Regardless of whether LR ends up with Ciotti or Pecresse, is there any scenario where either of them makes it into the second round in the spring?

[parochial boy]

Germany: "Oh no, we have a far right party winning seats in parliament!"

Flanders: "only one? We have two far right parties!"

Netherlands: "Pathetic, we have three far right parties in our parliament"

France: "hold my beer..."

[Continential]

It makes perfect sense to consider nominating a candidate proposing a mixture of hardcore neoliberalism and fascism as there is such a massive shortage of both amongst the candidates already declared.

ciotti is not fascist. And not "neoliberal".

We all know that you are happy that there are at least three candidates that you like.

[Lechasseur]

Tbh I'm not surprised in the slightest that Bertrand didn't make the second round. He always struck me as a paper tiger.

What I was surprised by was Ciotti making the second round. I thought it would be Pécresse and Barnier.

With hindsight I get Ciotti making it, but I was not predicting that at all.

[Lechasseur]

Regardless of whether LR ends up with Ciotti or Pecresse, is there any scenario where either of them makes it into the second round in the spring?

Imo, Ciotti has no chance. He's simply way too similar to Le Pen and Zemmour.

Pécresse probably not, but if Macron's support collapses in the coming months, she'll pick that up so her chances, while very low, are not zero.

[Lechasseur]

Yeah, my first thought was something along the lines of "this is excellent news for Anne Hidalgo".

Anyway Mélenchon and Zemmour had a debate on BFMTV this evening. I didn't watch because, frankly, I'd rather gouge my eyes out with a spoon. But, given that he has been... everywhere... over the last week or so (this is how censorship works apparently), I'm increasingly convinced that Zemmour's mooted candidacy is mostly intended to make Le Pen look like a reasonable, open minded and inclusive moderate by comparision.

I've increasingly come to this conclusion as well, and I'm afraid it will work...

[Umengus]

Pecresse elected with 61 % (and 69K votes). No surprise. Good result for Ciotti.

[Lechasseur]

Pecresse elected with 61 % (and 69K votes). No surprise. Good result for Ciotti.

How is it a good result for him? That's not a particularly close margin

[Zinneke]

Pecresse elected with 61 % (and 69K votes). No surprise. Good result for Ciotti.

How is it a good result for him? That's not a particularly close margin

He didn't have a favourable vote transfer environment. All 3 drop outs were closer to Pecresse.

But it's also Umengus being Umengus and spinning even the slightest thing in the right's favour. You have to understand him, he comes from a political environment where his cucked right-wing party celebrate coming 7th place in the entire country and their leader not even elected by preference votes.

[Continential]

Pecresse elected with 61 % (and 69K votes). No surprise. Good result for Ciotti.

How is it a good result for him? That's not a particularly close margin

He didn't have a favourable vote transfer environment. All 3 drop outs were closer to Pecresse.

But it's also Umengus being Umengus and spinning even the slightest thing in the right's favour. You have to understand him, he comes from a political environment where his cucked right-wing party celebrate coming 7th place in the entire country and their leader not even elected by preference votes.

I remember Al saying that Umengus is a supporter of VB.