French presidential election, 2022

[Geoffrey Howe]

You seem quite anti-Macron; would you vote Bertrand over Macron? With the latter's shift to the right, I don't really know what the difference between them is. Generally I don't understand the non-Le Pen right who are still anti-Macron.

No, age 

Ah, eventually then

I woud vote blanc in a Macron v Bertrand second round - I'm a bit too lazy right now to explain fully why; but basically horror at his economic policies, attitude towards minorities, attemps to discredit and censor left wing thought combined with the pure arrogance of thinking that he is somehow entitled to left wing votes in a second round. I very much resent being blackmailed in that way.

Bertrand's electorate I think essentially consists of old people to be honest. Basically people who don't like the more progressive sides of Macron's outlook (the pro-europeanism, rhetoric about feminism etc...) but also don't like the perceived extremism of Le Pen (ie, they're old enough to remember the father). Bertrand has a much more classical conservative profile (ie themes like "the value of work" or "authority"), which seems like it still has an electorate willing to back it.

I don't think I'd be to excited about his prospects just yet though, even if he seems to have a certain electorate right now, there's a degree of "blank page" about him. Never underestimate the sheer degree to which French politics is motivated by complete disdain for everything and everyone. And as hinted above, he is also very weak outside of the certain demographic (older and wealthier) that seems to be behind him at the moment

Darmanin in particular seems very obnoxious.

Ah, the French electorate. As someone I know likes to say, ils veulent tout et son contraire.

[Geoffrey Howe]

It would be really hard for me to decide who to vote for in the first round, were I able to vote. Being British I have a visceral dislike of Macron but if I were French I might have a more positive opinion of him.

Macron, it seems, is perceived as some sort of southern European leftist here. Just look at the Telegraph.

Did you support anyone last time round? From the little I know about you, you seem somewhat Eurosceptic, economically centrist, a bit socially conservative; but generally quite moderate. Modern SDP? I think there are a lot of voters like that in France. Not sure who you might like. Bertrand?

[Tirnam]

More details on the Ipsos/Cevipof poll

On Macron
- 38% have a positive view of his presidency
- 23% like him and his policies, 16% like him but dislike his policies, 12% dislike him but like his policies, 49% dislike him and his policies

Judgment on the candidates's personalities
3 candidates have a strong base : Macron, Le Pen and Mélenchon. The others have a hard time to seduce even among their party's base. Bertrand is in the middle.
But overall the candidates are not well liked.

Would ... do better than Macron?
Le Pen - Better 28%, Same 25%, Worse 47%
Bertrand - Better 21%, Same 57%, Worse 22%
Mélenchon - Better 16%, Same 29%, Worse 55%
Jadot - Better 14%, Same 43%, Worse 43%
Hidalgo - Better 14%, Same 41%, Worse 45%

[Geoffrey Howe]

More details on the Ipsos/Cevipof poll

On Macron
- 38% have a positive view of his presidency
- 23% like him and his policies, 16% like him but dislike his policies, 12% dislike him but like his policies, 49% dislike him and his policies

Judgment on the candidates's personalities
3 candidates have a strong base : Macron, Le Pen and Mélenchon. The others have a hard time to seduce even among their party's base. Bertrand is in the middle.
But overall the candidates are not well liked.

Would ... do better than Macron?
Le Pen - Better 28%, Same 25%, Worse 47%
Bertrand - Better 21%, Same 57%, Worse 22%
Mélenchon - Better 16%, Same 29%, Worse 55%
Jadot - Better 14%, Same 43%, Worse 43%
Hidalgo - Better 14%, Same 41%, Worse 45%

Mélenchon really is disliked by the rest of the electorate; more than Le Pen. Striking.

[beesley]

It would be really hard for me to decide who to vote for in the first round, were I able to vote. Being British I have a visceral dislike of Macron but if I were French I might have a more positive opinion of him.

Macron, it seems, is perceived as some sort of southern European leftist here. Just look at the Telegraph.

Did you support anyone last time round? From the little I know about you, you seem somewhat Eurosceptic, economically centrist, a bit socially conservative; but generally quite moderate. Modern SDP? I think there are a lot of voters like that in France. Not sure who you might like. Bertrand?

You've read me well, only correction is that I'd say I'm more economically left of centre and pro-localism/regionalism and also not uniformly conservative as I'm not against immigration - perhaps the continuity SDP would be the best fit for me, I've never thought to join them or anything. As I have said before, I've voted for four different parties in the past.

I didn't feel a strong attachment to any of the candidates last time - if I had to pick I would've said Dupont Aignan but I went off him a bit after he endorsed Le Pen as emphatically as he did. I liked Lassalle's regionalism but he seemed a bit crazy at times; Fillon I thought was worst major candidate for a whole variety of reasons, and I disliked Macron for his elitism and Europhilia. Hamon I have no strong opinion of, though I thought he was better than Valls and I disliked all the candidates that were extreme: Arthaud, Asselineau, Cheminade, Le Pen, Melenchon, Poutou etc. (the latter two I wouldn't vote for but I could sort of respect them as politicians.)

[Geoffrey Howe]

It would be really hard for me to decide who to vote for in the first round, were I able to vote. Being British I have a visceral dislike of Macron but if I were French I might have a more positive opinion of him.

Macron, it seems, is perceived as some sort of southern European leftist here. Just look at the Telegraph.

Did you support anyone last time round? From the little I know about you, you seem somewhat Eurosceptic, economically centrist, a bit socially conservative; but generally quite moderate. Modern SDP? I think there are a lot of voters like that in France. Not sure who you might like. Bertrand?

You've read me well, only correction is that I'd say I'm more economically left of centre and pro-localism/regionalism and also not uniformly conservative as I'm not against immigration - perhaps the continuity SDP would be the best fit for me, I've never thought to join them or anything. As I have said before, I've voted for four different parties in the past.

I didn't feel a strong attachment to any of the candidates last time - if I had to pick I would've said Dupont Aignan but I went off him a bit after he endorsed Le Pen as emphatically as he did. I liked Lassalle's regionalism but he seemed a bit crazy at times; Fillon I thought was worst major candidate for a whole variety of reasons, and I disliked Macron for his elitism and Europhilia. Hamon I have no strong opinion of, though I thought he was better than Valls and I disliked all the candidates that were extreme: Arthaud, Asselineau, Cheminade, Le Pen, Melenchon, Poutou etc. (the latter two I wouldn't vote for but I could sort of respect them as politicians.)

A bit left-field, but how about Green? I don't really know what they're like in France (fairly standard centre left I think).

[Tirnam]

More details on the Ipsos/Cevipof poll

On Macron
- 38% have a positive view of his presidency
- 23% like him and his policies, 16% like him but dislike his policies, 12% dislike him but like his policies, 49% dislike him and his policies

Judgment on the candidates's personalities
3 candidates have a strong base : Macron, Le Pen and Mélenchon. The others have a hard time to seduce even among their party's base. Bertrand is in the middle.
But overall the candidates are not well liked.

Would ... do better than Macron?
Le Pen - Better 28%, Same 25%, Worse 47%
Bertrand - Better 21%, Same 57%, Worse 22%
Mélenchon - Better 16%, Same 29%, Worse 55%
Jadot - Better 14%, Same 43%, Worse 43%
Hidalgo - Better 14%, Same 41%, Worse 45%

Mélenchon really is disliked by the rest of the electorate; more than Le Pen. Striking.

He was quite popular during the 2017 campaign (56% favorable rating in April 2017) but he fell quite rapidly after the election, as he was a little bit of a sore loser (34% favorable in July 2017) and his reaction to the police raid on his party's HQ in October 2018 was a low point from which he didn't recover.
He is very good at campaigning but the challenge will be much harder this time: before 2018 he was almost always below 60% of unfavorable opinions, since 2018 he is at 70% unfavorable.

[CumbrianLefty]

It would be really hard for me to decide who to vote for in the first round, were I able to vote. Being British I have a visceral dislike of Macron but if I were French I might have a more positive opinion of him.

Macron, it seems, is perceived as some sort of southern European leftist here. Just look at the Telegraph.

Did you support anyone last time round? From the little I know about you, you seem somewhat Eurosceptic, economically centrist, a bit socially conservative; but generally quite moderate. Modern SDP? I think there are a lot of voters like that in France. Not sure who you might like. Bertrand?

You've read me well, only correction is that I'd say I'm more economically left of centre and pro-localism/regionalism and also not uniformly conservative as I'm not against immigration - perhaps the continuity SDP would be the best fit for me, I've never thought to join them or anything. As I have said before, I've voted for four different parties in the past

Didn't you identify as Tory in a certain other place?

[beesley]

It would be really hard for me to decide who to vote for in the first round, were I able to vote. Being British I have a visceral dislike of Macron but if I were French I might have a more positive opinion of him.

Macron, it seems, is perceived as some sort of southern European leftist here. Just look at the Telegraph.

Did you support anyone last time round? From the little I know about you, you seem somewhat Eurosceptic, economically centrist, a bit socially conservative; but generally quite moderate. Modern SDP? I think there are a lot of voters like that in France. Not sure who you might like. Bertrand?

You've read me well, only correction is that I'd say I'm more economically left of centre and pro-localism/regionalism and also not uniformly conservative as I'm not against immigration - perhaps the continuity SDP would be the best fit for me, I've never thought to join them or anything. As I have said before, I've voted for four different parties in the past

Didn't you identify as Tory in a certain other place?

Yes I did - but (as I've said before) I've changed my views a lot to become more economically left and socially moderate in the past few years as I have had to become more economically independent and after gaining an appreciation for the lives of those less fortunate, but I've maintained my Euroscepticism.

[Conservatopia]

It would be really hard for me to decide who to vote for in the first round, were I able to vote. Being British I have a visceral dislike of Macron but if I were French I might have a more positive opinion of him.

Macron, it seems, is perceived as some sort of southern European leftist here. Just look at the Telegraph.

Did you support anyone last time round? From the little I know about you, you seem somewhat Eurosceptic, economically centrist, a bit socially conservative; but generally quite moderate. Modern SDP? I think there are a lot of voters like that in France. Not sure who you might like. Bertrand?

You've read me well, only correction is that I'd say I'm more economically left of centre and pro-localism/regionalism and also not uniformly conservative as I'm not against immigration - perhaps the continuity SDP would be the best fit for me, I've never thought to join them or anything. As I have said before, I've voted for four different parties in the past

Didn't you identify as Tory in a certain other place?

Yes I did - but (as I've said before) I've changed my views a lot to become more economically left and socially moderate in the past few years as I have had to become more economically independent and after gaining an appreciation for the lives of those less fortunate, but I've maintained my Euroscepticism.

You sound like the target ideology of the wonderful, idiosyncratic candidate Jean Lassalle.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Conservatopia, have you taken a leaf out of olawakandi's book? It's SIR WINSTON CHURCHILL, by the way.

[CumbrianLefty]

It would be really hard for me to decide who to vote for in the first round, were I able to vote. Being British I have a visceral dislike of Macron but if I were French I might have a more positive opinion of him.

Macron, it seems, is perceived as some sort of southern European leftist here. Just look at the Telegraph.

Did you support anyone last time round? From the little I know about you, you seem somewhat Eurosceptic, economically centrist, a bit socially conservative; but generally quite moderate. Modern SDP? I think there are a lot of voters like that in France. Not sure who you might like. Bertrand?

You've read me well, only correction is that I'd say I'm more economically left of centre and pro-localism/regionalism and also not uniformly conservative as I'm not against immigration - perhaps the continuity SDP would be the best fit for me, I've never thought to join them or anything. As I have said before, I've voted for four different parties in the past

Didn't you identify as Tory in a certain other place?

Yes I did - but (as I've said before) I've changed my views a lot to become more economically left and socially moderate in the past few years as I have had to become more economically independent and after gaining an appreciation for the lives of those less fortunate, but I've maintained my Euroscepticism.

Ta, its confirmation you are indeed the same person anyway

[Agafin]

I've been reading some of Melenchon's social media comments (twitter and facebook) and he really seems like the only major presidential candidate who is actually anti-imperialist. If my feed is anything to go by, that makes him really popular with my fellow africans (those who care about french politics that is) but I assume that also partly explains why he is so politically toxic to the point of losing badly even against Le Pen. He has no filter Like, him calling out Macron's hypocrisy on legitimizing the current chadian president who effectively committed a coup is quite refreshing but at the same time, a diplomatic faux pas. He really is some leftwing version of Trump.

Something tells me that if France had ethnic or racial polling (like the UK or the US), he'd be ahead #1 with ethnic minorities and immigrants, especially black ones (but way down with whites and native born french).

[warandwar]

I guess you dislike Mélenchon then, because he seemed to have the best chance of doing well of the leftwing candidates. Did you support Macron in the second round (without the hindsight)?

No I couldn't vote (still can't). From the little I knew I was supporting Macron. I believe my father was quite enthusiastic for Juppé, admiring him as mayor of Bordeaux; he started supporting Macron early on though.

Yeah, there are a lot of things I don't like about him, even if there are quite a few people in LFI I have a more positive opinion of. I would be more prepared to support him this time round though, because the situation seems more desperate and he seems to compare (much) less badly relative to other figure than he did 5 years ago.

Is it a citizenship issue why you can't vote? I've no idea what the French rules wrt voting abroad are, but I don't think there is a time limit like other countries have

This seems to be most of the French Left's attitude - don't like Melanchon, but he's better than he used to be.
Why couldn't other figures step up to the plate?

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

A good strategy for those who want to chuck Macron into the dustbin of history: a coalition of NGOs and trade unions should randomly select some men on the street, vet them, and run the one who has no history of beating women or committing petty crimes etc. This candidate would probably become the next French President!

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I guess you dislike Mélenchon then, because he seemed to have the best chance of doing well of the leftwing candidates. Did you support Macron in the second round (without the hindsight)?

No I couldn't vote (still can't). From the little I knew I was supporting Macron. I believe my father was quite enthusiastic for Juppé, admiring him as mayor of Bordeaux; he started supporting Macron early on though.

Yeah, there are a lot of things I don't like about him, even if there are quite a few people in LFI I have a more positive opinion of. I would be more prepared to support him this time round though, because the situation seems more desperate and he seems to compare (much) less badly relative to other figure than he did 5 years ago.

Is it a citizenship issue why you can't vote? I've no idea what the French rules wrt voting abroad are, but I don't think there is a time limit like other countries have

This seems to be most of the French Left's attitude - don't like Melanchon, but he's better than he used to be.
Why couldn't other figures step up to the plate?

Note that parochial boy did not say that "he was better than he used to be" but, rather, that he is better relative to other figures than he was five years ago. My read of the French situation is that basically all politicians come off as clowns and fools to a much greater extent than they did in 2016. Melenchon seems mostly unchanged so he now seems better in contrast.

[warandwar]

Houria Bouteldja specifically said he was better than he used to be, that she did not expect him to speak out so strongly against Macron's islamophobia. The NPA is currently splitting bc many want to endorse him. Not just referring to pb's post.

[parochial boy]

Yeah, it's a bit off both I would say. On the one hand, maybe not necessarily that Mélenchon himself is any better, but he at least surrounds himself with people who are fairly palatable. There are now a cast of LFI figures beyond just the man himself and that some of them I personally do have a fair amount of time for.

Problem is that the size of the unambiguously left electorate is... rather small at the moment.

And, on the other hand, the rest of the French left has become increasingly contemptible over the the course of the quinquennat. On the one hand you have figures like Hamon or most of the PS who seem to serve no identifiable purpose; but even more disheartening is the likes of Jadot or Hidalgo playing to the islamophobic psuedo-républicain gallery.

[Zinneke]

https://twitter.com/lucas_jaku/status/1382606195349983234?s=19

Also the whole "who would vote Bertrand/random centrist from the traditional French Left family when Macron exists" question epitomises what the main factors really are in this election and how it is the most psephologically-speaking tabula rasa one since De Gaulle. Macron incarnates whatever you want him to be, whether it is a saviour or a pariah. And people will vote according to their personal view of his character or what they want him to be - whether its inner city Paris or a village in Centre. He is insanely lucky the next candidate still has Le Pen in their family name as that's about the only other last name that provokes such a split of opinion. Otherwise this election would be a referendum on Macron, and not like the Sarkozy 2012 one where it still followed patterns related to their political families.  

But overall I don't see how the old cleavages and vote banks will persist. If LR run a more Orleanist candidate, doubly so.

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/lucas_jaku/status/1382607044558086144?s=20

https://twitter.com/lucas_jaku/status/1382607586487373829?s=20

Similar sort of age patterns at the extremes to last time though perhaps the differences are more pronounced.

[Geoffrey Howe]

https://twitter.com/lucas_jaku/status/1382607044558086144?s=20
https://twitter.com/lucas_jaku/status/1382607586487373829?s=20
Similar sort of age patterns at the extremes to last time though perhaps more pronounced.

Excellent analysis in the comments...

Aucun des plus de 65 ans autour de moi revotera Macron. À un an des présidentielles ce genre de sondage fait juste plaisir aux sondeurs.

(None of the over-65s around me will vote for Macron again. A year away from the presidential this sort of poll just pleases pollsters.)

[Geoffrey Howe]

With the way things are going, how do you expect Paris 16ème to vote in the first round? Clearly it's between Macron and Bertrand. (Neuilly would be interesting too; in fact it's slightly to the right even of 75016.)

For reference:

2019 européennes

LREM   25 294     46,10%
LR/      13 289   24,22%
EELV    4 606    18,40%
FN       4 523    8,24%


2017 présidentielle

M. François FILLON           46 734   58,45%
M. Emmanuel MACRON   21 304   26,65%
M. Jean-Luc MÉLENCHON   4 315   5,40%
Mme Marine LE PEN           3 273   4,09%
M. Benoît HAMON           2 353   2,94%

M. Emmanuel MACRON   59 031   87,37%
Mme Marine LE PEN           8 533   12,63%

2012 présidentielle

M. Nicolas SARKOZY          47 233   64,85%
M. François HOLLANDE     10 583   14,53%
M. François BAYROU          6 281           8,62%
Mme Marine LE PEN          4 062           5,58%
M. Jean-Luc MÉLENCHON  2 324           3,19%

M. Nicolas SARKOZY          59 309   78,01%
M. François HOLLANDE     16 723   21,99%


Looking at the 2019 result, I say Macron.

[parochial boy]

Jérôme Fourquet, who is IFOP's head pollster has some pretty interesting analysis of the RN electorate on the Jean Jaurès foundation's website.

Broadly speaking it's what everyone already knew - but the interesting thing is that the bell shaped age profile, that is lower among the young and olds and higher among middle aged adults, is actually a remarkably persistant pattern. As in, cohorts become more likely to vote RN as they move into their 30s/40s, and then less likely as they reach retirement. Which somewhat undermines the traditional argument that "old people don't vote Le Pen because they remember the war".

He suggests that this happens in part because the 30-65 year olds are more likely to be in employment, and simultaneously less likely to be benefitting from the welfare state, and therefore more receptive to arguments about the "assistanat". Which combined with the sense of cultural and economic downgrading among people with low levels education, and the actual retreat of the welfare state for those people, is an interesting line of thought. Not sure iI completely buy it, but it might help explain why 2017's 25 year olds, who weren't particularly inclined to support Le Pen, have morphed into today's 30 years, who seem to be a bit more to.

[mileslunn]

What are changes of Le Pen actually winning?  Its highly likely she does better than 2017 and probably cracks 40%, but could she actually win?  Also if she does does she still favor a referendum on leaving EU or has she dropped this? 

For second round any chance any other parties make it or is pretty much a foregone conclusion it will be Macron vs. Le Pen? 

Likewise since some of her policies will probably run afoul with EU law, while EU come down hard on her or will they like with Orban turn a blind eye and let her get away with it.  I think if Greens win in Germany and Le Pen in France, that could make things interesting, perhaps cause more troubles in EU as often Franco-German meeting tends to set EU agenda and two countries tend to play an outsized role in determining direction of union.  In past by and large despite differences, leaders from two countries have had enough in common they can work together but if Baerbock in Germany and Le Pen in France, I don't see how that is possible.

[Geoffrey Howe]

What are changes of Le Pen actually winning?  Its highly likely she does better than 2017 and probably cracks 40%, but could she actually win? 

I find this highly unlikely. I think it's pretty clear that she and Macron will make it to the second round. Then at least half the country will hate her more than Macron. You have the issue of turnout, and certainly his victory will be less convincing than last time, but I think three things are working in his favour:

1) Although you won't hear it here, he is very popular...by French standards. He has a floor of about 30% approval, which is much higher than the previous two presidents. This is more extraordinary than it might seem: it means he is likely to be the first president in power to be re-elected since de Gaulle.

2) He is polling just over 55% against Le Pen. I think a lot of these people say the won't vote Macron now, but in a year's time, when push comes to shove, they will; also if there is another debate he will probably trounce her and convince some people. (For example, I know someone last time who claims he was going to vote blanc and decided to vote Macron after the debate.)

3) Lots of people who really dislike him, even if they will not vote for him, are not actually going to vote for Le Pen. There are people like this on Atlas. Whereas if it were another candidate, they might actively vote against Macron.