French presidential election, 2022

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I suppose the one saving grace for the French Left is that there doesn't really seem to be an anointed successor for The Flawless and the Beautiful when he decides to shed his mortal guise and ascend Mount Olympus, and his absence would free up a lot of woolly centre left voters vaguely ok with him as a figure that has some need to occasionally give them some policy bones. Of course, the fact that the French Left needs these people and finds it so hard to grab some people that aouldy have voted for UK labour and the SPD even at their nadirs is not particularly fantastic news, but that predated the  Flanpocalypse tbh.

Is that really a limitation, flawless successors get tossed out all the time without the slightest hint of drama. Like is anybody in the UK even among the online left, still hung up by what happend to Laura Pidcock ?

[Хahar 🤔]

Thanks for the good summery. I have already noted in this thread, but it bears repeating I feel that a national top-two runoff system in the modern age - when the executive has any power rather than simply being a figurehead for the legislature of course - increasingly favors the personalization or "caudillo-ization" of politics. The first round vote becomes increasingly fragmented because there is no thresholds, limited barriers to running, and one can easily inform voters across the internet. Essentially duverger's in action. The fragmentation is however different from say the Dutch fragmentation that is resulting in multitudes of minor parties with pet issues. A single powerful seat for a single individual means that fragmentation multiplies the personalities, backgrounds, identities, who run - the things that can be represented by a person and not an ideological parliamentary party. We see this increasingly in countries across the world.

I mean look at the result. Both in 2017 and now we have most/all the major candidates effectively running with limited or irrelevant party apparatus. Now it is just more apparent since the parties that could once command almost every voter in France got a combined result under 10%. The setup for how legislative elections are contested simply means that the legislature becomes just as personalized and aligned with the executive's identity. This also is not unique to France. If Melenchon or Le Pen won last time or (could) win this time, the legislative results would no doubt be just as similar, just with a different cast of former nobodies. In my eyes, the only thing preventing France politics from fully personalizing is France's rich tradition of Ideological politics.

To the extent that a political system with a powerful president elected in two rounds would produce any particular partisan configuration, I would expect it to look a lot like Chile: a variety of parties and candidates, nearly all of whom are clearly identified either with the Left or with the Right. For a while this was the situation that prevailed in France, with the PCF and PS on one side and the UDF and RPR on the other.

That this is not the case in France now has a lot to do with France not having a "rich tradition of ideological politics" but in fact the exact opposite. In the late Third Republic, when every other rich Western democracy had a strong (perhaps too strong) culture of partisan politics, there were no real political parties to the right of the Marxist parties, only loosely defined groups of parliamentarians. Mass electoral politics in France has always been based basically around individuals. Under the present system, the PS was by, of, and for Mitterrand, the UDF was created by Giscard as an organization of his followers, and every successful Gaullist leader has created his own new political party. La République Emmanuel Macron is exactly the same. It's hard to think of anything more classically French.

[Astatine]

Expat vote results are out by consular constituency and they're hilarious. Zemmour won in Israel, Russia (minus Yekaterinburg constituency) - no comment - Thailand and the Almaty constituency. He also won 31% in the Bahamas and 25.4% in Miami. I will just say one thing about this: LOL.



There's no embassy in North Korea, the embassy in Yemen is closed but the consular constituency still exists and reported 0 votes, the embassy in Syria is closed but 2 votes were cast (one each for Zemmour and Pécresse), 1 vote was cast in Afghanistan and it was for Macron and the election couldn't be held in Shanghai because ZeroCovid disenfranchises people.

Some constituencies are non-contiguous (Malawi is with RSA, Nunavut is with Montreal, Jamaica is with Panama, PR is with Miami etc.)

Full details here: https://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/IMG/pdf/elections_pr_1er_tour_2022_-_pourcentages__cle0f9d7c.pdf

Beautiful that the Western French department of La Sarre has an own consular constituency.

In a very hypothetical scenario where we transfer the votes from the 27 March state election to the respective euro party's candidates (SPD->PS, CDU->LR, AfD->RN, Greens->EELV, FDP->LREM, Linke->LFI - ofc not happening, just playing with numbers), Hidalgo would've increased her absolute raw vote by 33% (from 604,000 to 801,000) and would've finished ahead of Dupont-Aignan and Roussel.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Expat vote results are out by consular constituency and they're hilarious. Zemmour won in Israel, Russia (minus Yekaterinburg constituency) - no comment - Thailand and the Almaty constituency. He also won 31% in the Bahamas and 25.4% in Miami. I will just say one thing about this: LOL.

What's the makeup of french ex-pats in Russia like? I know those in Singapore tend to be higher professionals and were generally very much centrist.

[Vosem]

Israel and Syria, countries that famously get along well, voting for the same candidate that the rest of the world mostly despises is very funny.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

The funniest thing about the map, however, is the fact that Louisiana forms its own constituency, as though it's still 1803. 😀 King Louis XIV would be proud.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The funniest thing about the map, however, is the fact that Louisiana forms its own constituency, as though it's still 1803. 😀 King Louis XIV would be proud.

Somehow Nunavut got one while all of Western Canada had to share one.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

The funniest thing about the map, however, is the fact that Louisiana forms its own constituency, as though it's still 1803. 😀 King Louis XIV would be proud.

Somehow Nunavut got one while all of Western Canada had to share one.

When I just scaled that awesome map up to the max, I discovered that tiny Saarland is also its own constituency, whereas Rhineland-Palatinate and Hesse are merged as one. It seems like the French can't let go... 😂

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Wonder who voted in Syria and Afghanistan

[adma]

The funniest thing about the map, however, is the fact that Louisiana forms its own constituency, as though it's still 1803. 😀 King Louis XIV would be proud.

Somehow Nunavut got one while all of Western Canada had to share one.

As mentioned in a post above:  "Some constituencies are non-contiguous (Malawi is with RSA, Nunavut is with Montreal, Jamaica is with Panama, PR is with Miami etc.)"

[Zinneke]

Wonder who voted in Syria and Afghanistan

Mercenaries.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

How did that happen? Vive le Nunavut libre.

That's probably because Nunavut is part of the Montreal constituency.

[CumbrianLefty]

It appears also that former French West Africa is quite fond of Melenchon.

[afleitch]

Link is broken. Boo.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Wonder who voted in Syria and Afghanistan

Mercenaries.

Mercenaries for Zemmour... yeah, I can see it.

[Red Velvet]

Expat vote results are out by consular constituency and they're hilarious. Zemmour won in Israel, Russia (minus Yekaterinburg constituency) - no comment - Thailand and the Almaty constituency. He also won 31% in the Bahamas and 25.4% in Miami. I will just say one thing about this: LOL.



There's no embassy in North Korea, the embassy in Yemen is closed but the consular constituency still exists and reported 0 votes, the embassy in Syria is closed but 2 votes were cast (one each for Zemmour and Pécresse), 1 vote was cast in Afghanistan and it was for Macron and the election couldn't be held in Shanghai because ZeroCovid disenfranchises people.

Some constituencies are non-contiguous (Malawi is with RSA, Nunavut is with Montreal, Jamaica is with Panama, PR is with Miami etc.)

Full details here: https://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/IMG/pdf/elections_pr_1er_tour_2022_-_pourcentages__cle0f9d7c.pdf

Impressive. Brazilian Northeast is coincidentally the PT/Lula stronghold here in Brazil.

[Red Velvet]

And I guess it’s not just Latino expats in Miami who are consistently awful. It’s all people in Miami apparently.

Always the most right-wing city in US in all these international voting results. And with lots of comfort, there isn’t even a competition lol

[Lechasseur]

According to Le Figaro, Elisabeth Borne, the Minister of Labour, is rumoured to be Macron's choice for Prime Minister if he's reelected

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Expat vote results are out by consular constituency and they're hilarious. Zemmour won in Israel, Russia (minus Yekaterinburg constituency) - no comment - Thailand and the Almaty constituency. He also won 31% in the Bahamas and 25.4% in Miami. I will just say one thing about this: LOL.



There's no embassy in North Korea, the embassy in Yemen is closed but the consular constituency still exists and reported 0 votes, the embassy in Syria is closed but 2 votes were cast (one each for Zemmour and Pécresse), 1 vote was cast in Afghanistan and it was for Macron and the election couldn't be held in Shanghai because ZeroCovid disenfranchises people.

Some constituencies are non-contiguous (Malawi is with RSA, Nunavut is with Montreal, Jamaica is with Panama, PR is with Miami etc.)

Full details here: https://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/IMG/pdf/elections_pr_1er_tour_2022_-_pourcentages__cle0f9d7c.pdf

Great map!! Did Le Pen win anywhere?

[Oryxslayer]

Expat vote results are out by consular constituency and they're hilarious. Zemmour won in Israel, Russia (minus Yekaterinburg constituency) - no comment - Thailand and the Almaty constituency. He also won 31% in the Bahamas and 25.4% in Miami. I will just say one thing about this: LOL.



There's no embassy in North Korea, the embassy in Yemen is closed but the consular constituency still exists and reported 0 votes, the embassy in Syria is closed but 2 votes were cast (one each for Zemmour and Pécresse), 1 vote was cast in Afghanistan and it was for Macron and the election couldn't be held in Shanghai because ZeroCovid disenfranchises people.

Some constituencies are non-contiguous (Malawi is with RSA, Nunavut is with Montreal, Jamaica is with Panama, PR is with Miami etc.)

Full details here: https://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/IMG/pdf/elections_pr_1er_tour_2022_-_pourcentages__cle0f9d7c.pdf

Great map!! Did Le Pen win anywhere?

She tied Macron in Moldova according to EuropeElects.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Great map!! Did Le Pen win anywhere?

She tied Macron in Moldova according to EuropeElects.

Missed that before. Thanks!

[Boobs]

Has anyone noted the hilarious irony that Macron is a native of Amiens in the depressed postindustrial north of France, while Le Pen had grown up and currently lives in the posh western suburbs of Paris, in particular Neuilly, Saint-Cloud, and La Celle-Saint-Cloud, basically some of the wealthiest towns in the country. And her father is from Brittany, a region which showed her very little love!

[Frodo]

Marine Le Pen kindly shows us how horrible her foreign policy is going to be if she ever becomes President of France:

France's Le Pen outlines foreign policy vision, leaving Russia door ajar

[Zinneke]

Has anyone noted the hilarious irony that Macron is a native of Amiens in the depressed postindustrial north of France, while Le Pen had grown up and currently lives in the posh western suburbs of Paris, in particular Neuilly, Saint-Cloud, and La Celle-Saint-Cloud, basically some of the wealthiest towns in the country. And her father is from Brittany, a region which showed her very little love!

Indeed, although an element to Panzergirl's anti-establishment rhetoric is genuine, precisely because the feeling of rejection she felt frequenting those elite circles and being put in a box because of her family name. In this sense there are some parallels with Trump and his rejection of the Manhattan elite he grew up with.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1514562668958564352?s=20&t=g71YirjAx...

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1514563371852513291?s=20&t=g71YirjAx...

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1514613723549167619?s=20&t=g71YirjAx...

Polling update for the moment.