French presidential election, 2022

[Zinneke]

As Al has already alluded to, you shouldn't underestimate the persistence of candidates throughout their political careers. I firmly expect both Le Pen and Méluche to claim that they are passing on the baton but to return next election.

[Zinneke]

https://mobile.twitter.com/andre_spicer/status/1517554894936449026

[Zinneke]

What do you guys think a Melenchon vs Le Pen runoff would have looked like?

[Zinneke]

Can a French speaker help me with this?  I have a question regarding "période de cohabitation" in the following article, which appeared in Le Monde earlier today.  
We use the word "cohabitation" in English to mean "vivre ensemble" but that seems odd here.  The only thing I can think of is that it refers to a political party holding both the national legislature and the presidency simultaneously.  At the moment the REM has the biggest share of seats in the parliament, so this would make sense.  Is that correct?  Thank you.

Yes, cohabitation refers to periods when the president and the lower house/government (led by the prime minister responsible to parliament) are from different political families. There have been three cohabitation periods under the Fifth Republic - 1986-88, 1993-95 and 1997-02. Macron is the only president besides de Gaulle to win reelection without a cohabitation, or with his party controlling the National Assembly/government. Whether or not this makes his victory more impressive is another question.

See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cohabitation_(government)

Technically Macron lost his majority and needed a coalition. Not cohabitation but I feel like he doesn't deserve the "record" either.

Macron is center, not "right."

Macron is sui generis really. In typical French fashion, the personality takes precedence over any ideological coherence. No centrist across Europe really resembles him or his trajectory. He's an ex-PS member who had a very PS vote in the first round of 2017 and now has a very centre-right vote in 2022 first round

[Zinneke]

https://mobile.twitter.com/alemannoEU/status/1518487356038385664

Great thread outlining that what the second round shows is a sharpening of the kind of social factors that are seen across Europe. Before France had very peculiar patterns...now the Big Three have delivered some clarity but it reveals a deeply socially fractured country.

[Zinneke]

Macron is absolutely "right", if a political line of cutting the welfare state, economic liberalism, cracking down on migrants etc, etc, then you are basically trying to redefine what the right actually is

There has always been a tradition in European and French politics of right-wing politics being accompanied by a degree of cultural liberalism. Giscard d'Estaing was nothing if not a right-wing president and in any acse, the self-identified "centre" in France has traditionally been inseparable from the right when it comes to electoral alliances and all the rest. And when you look at Macron's policies, who is his government (hint some very hard line rightwingers) and who supports him (Sarkozy, enthusiastically) then the guy is right wing. This is not even a debate to be had.

Yes if you come from a left-wing perspective, there is no debate to be had, he is a right-winger. But whether you like it or not Macron has included elements of traditional French Left ideology that make him sui generis. There is elements of reformism in his language, style and he tows the idea of preserving the social security model with austerity (you and I find this contradictory, but these progressives don't). No LR President would have put the EU flag up, vociferously defended climate action, etc. Also you mention electoral alliance, well Macron has been able to forge some with PS or ex-PS as well as LR, and that makes him different from the whole VGE  trend.

Let's settle this debate (because there is a debate to be had) and get the political scientists to evaluate his messaging and his manifesto according to clear indicators and class him accordingly. I'd wager they would settle the debate by calling him unclassifiable.

Now all of these are symbolic. In terms of policy, I would say he has just run the ship on a steady course that the McKinsey-type neo-liberal mandarins have told him to go on. I don't think any button on the Presidential dashboard (or indeed any European leader on their own) works anyway. And the EU mudpit is still about state interests rather than broad ideological debates. So I don't think Macron is a right-wing ideologue...he's just a manager with slogans and "en meme temps" in terms of action.

One thing the sectarians on the far left are unable to understand is that a Macroniste figure still does have appeal with some progressive-minded people. There is a broad coherence to him being able to attract 10-15% of the old PS vote to his camp. He still has ministers that were ministers under Hollande. You can label them right-wing, which is the standard sectarian response the French Left have been making for years. How has that strategy worked out? Still enjoying 3rd place for an overtly pro-Putin, xenophobic Strasserite demagogue as a left-wing "victory" and popular Union? Losing mentality. Let's rule out Jadot because he worked for an NGO in Paris, let's rule out Roussel because he can beat the right at their own game in the trivial aspects culture wars, all of them are "right-wing" in your eyes...but again this is just blinkered sectarianism.

PS : Sarkozy hardly supported him enthusiastically given he stayed silent in the first round and endorsed him in the second round be default. By the same logic Hollande endorsing him makes Macron in Hollande's image.

[Zinneke]

Given the outcome of the presidential election I'd say France and the EU live to fight another day, although with Le Pen's results in mind the sword of Damocles continues to hang above their heads.

It's problematic for a democracy that the executive and the legislative branch are so thoroughly dominated by a single political party on a seemingly permanent basis, while any meaningful opposition consists almost entirely of far-right and left-wing populist parties. That sounds a bit like Russia except that in France the election results are at least not rigged. In any case, France needs better opposition.

Speaking of Russia, I think the importance that Putin has failed to gain any sort of a foothold within Western Europe yesterday can't be stressed enough.

I share some of your toughts about Europe and the democracy. However, are you really tryng to establish a comparison between French and Russian politics? Is LREM equivalent to United Russia,  RN to the LDPR and LFI to the CPRF?

Also, I don't share the parallels that some people draw between far-right and leftwing populisms in Western Europe. In Russia the Putin's party, the LDPR and the communists share a staunch social reactionarism, contrary to progressive causes such as LGBT rights. In Western Europe far-right populists favor policies contrary to the the rights of migrants and other minorities, while leftwing populist parties usually favor inclusive policies. I wouldn't say LFI represents a risk for essential democratic values, despite I don't find Mélenchon pleasant at a personal level and I'm more Europeanist than him

idk man, when LFI's (only) leader says things like "La République C'est Moi" and says he would use Robespierre as an example of leadership, I kind of think LFI would be a threat to democracy. And I don't buy the argument that because it's 2022 somehow it cannot happen again.

[Zinneke]

Let's lighten the mood a bit, the French "Onion" is on top form

https://mobile.twitter.com/le_gorafi/status/1518315296460791808

De Rugy of course, disgraced for his lavish lifestyle as an "ecologist" claiming obscene expenses and representing everything wrong with the average French politician.

This fake announcement was also good

https://mobile.twitter.com/le_gorafi/status/1518288666426105856

[Zinneke]

  What would be considered the most far right, or fascist, or extremist or otherwise horrible policy proposals that MLP proposed in her current campaign or that her party has in its platform? 

Kicking immigrants out of social housing with immediate effect.

[Zinneke]

Hi, this is a bit off topic, but I am new in the forum, and I can't see a single map you guys post. Does anyone know how to fix this?

Hi welcome to the mad house

You have to post something like 15 posts before you can see our dickpics for copy right reasons

[Zinneke]

Hi, this is a bit off topic, but I am new in the forum, and I can't see a single map you guys post. Does anyone know how to fix this?

It might also depend on what browser you are using - for me, MS Edge ignores many pictures, while they are well displayed with Opera...

Especially to some Chinese operative!

Firefox or Chromium ftw