French presidential election, 2022

[Zinneke]

I was also very positive about Jadot, but then he exposed himself when he forgot that Romania and Bulgaria were in the EU. This man is an MEP. That works with these people every day.

[Zinneke]

Speaking of Le Pen and moderating her discourse, she has been extremely effective at avoiding any question about EU membership altogether. I fear that Macron will focus on the Putinist aspect when swathes of the population, to put it bluntly, either don't care or care in only a distant way about the Ukrainian conflict due to the collective atharaxia Western Europe has drugged itself on the past 20 years. Instead, Macron might want to try to pin down Le Pen on the EU because it is her core vulnerability : she can't really commit to staying in the EU either due to the Zemmour challenge (although it seems all but over) and her overall feelings about the institution. And Macron needs to hammer home that an end to the Euro would harm French buying power more than the current Russia-EU sanctions regime in the long term.

[Zinneke]

https://twitter.com/brutofficiel/status/1513227298136375302

The reaction of the Zemmour supporters...

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

[Zinneke]

nice map

[Zinneke]

Melenchon will finish so close to taking Le Pen out of the runoff but won’t do it.

If only some people didn’t waste their vote going for people with no chances like Hidalgo, Jadot or even the Communist Party candidate (who performed better than Hidalgo), Le Pen’s political career would’ve been done.

Mélenchon is solely to blame. He is the one that ruled out a primary because, in his own words, the first round is the primary.

[Zinneke]

Melenchon will finish so close to taking Le Pen out of the runoff but won’t do it.

If only some people didn’t waste their vote going for people with no chances like Hidalgo, Jadot or even the Communist Party candidate (who performed better than Hidalgo), Le Pen’s political career would’ve been done.

Mélenchon is solely to blame. He is the one that ruled out a primary because, in his own words, the first round is the primary.

And the trio of selfless egoless figures of Hildalgo, Jadot, and Roussel obviously never would have acted like that had they been in his shoes.
Melanchon's belief that he alone could muster support beyond the miniscule group of people who'd vote in such a primary has been proven to be completely accurate. Could it just be that Fabian Roussel, etc truly does have bad politics and should be marginalized?

If anything, these results show Melenchon was completely right in ditching the center-left trash lol. His appeal comes from being anti-system. He’s stealing a lot of Le Pen areas because of that and showing the left HOW you fight the populist right.

The likes of Jadot/Hidalgo cannot even get to 5%, they have no leverage for demands.

Ok chaps, for the sake of argument let's take Hidalgo and Jadot out of the equation (even though Jadot by virtue of his non-candidacy in 2017 probably is pretty selfless yes. All Mélenchon had to do was bring Roussel and the PCF on board...that didn't happen because Mélenchon refuses to even consider any challenge to his own hegemony, and is outright ditching most Left symbology anyway because what he wants is the Jean-Luc Mélenchon show, not any genuine Left government.

[Zinneke]

I think JLM is a pretty vile human being even by the shockingly low standards of what's passed for the French left for much of the last century, but I have no sympathy for any Roussel supporters now finding themselves blamed for him missing the runoff. You inexplicably voted for a meme candidate, own it!

They voted exactly how Mélenchon told them to : as if the first round of the election was a left wing primary. They should be proud and if Mélenchon had adopted Roussel's nuanced position on NATO for example, it begs a few questions over whether Roussel's electorate would have fallen behind him in rank.

[Zinneke]

In case your hard on from last night's video of Zemmour supporters has worn off, here is a video of Pécresse calling on the whole country for donations because she is personally indebted in up to 5 million euros and did not get the expected 7 million. Her party, the party of old French money, didn't even back her financially.

https://www.bfmtv.com/politique/valerie-pecresse-je-suis-endettee-personnellement-a-hauteur-de-5-millions-d-euros_VN-202204110240.html

Imagine spending 14 million to humiliate yourself publicly like this. Imagine putting 5 million of your own money into it. And then ask for donations. To run a campaign against the welfare state and putting 200,000 public servants on the bread line.

LMAO

[Zinneke]

In case your hard on from last night's video of Zemmour supporters has worn off, here is a video of Pécresse calling on the whole country for donations because she is personally indebted in up to 5 million euros and did not get the expected 7 million. Her party, the party of old French money, didn't even back her financially.

https://www.bfmtv.com/politique/valerie-pecresse-je-suis-endettee-personnellement-a-hauteur-de-5-millions-d-euros_VN-202204110240.html

Imagine spending 14 million to humiliate yourself publicly like this. Imagine putting 5 million of your own money into it. And then ask for donations. To run a campaign against the welfare state and putting 200,000 public servants on the bread line.

LMAO

Is Zemmour, going to be reimbursed for his campaign?

Yes unfortunately. 5% gets you the 7 million euros.

[Zinneke]

In case your hard on from last night's video of Zemmour supporters has worn off, here is a video of Pécresse calling on the whole country for donations because she is personally indebted in up to 5 million euros and did not get the expected 7 million. Her party, the party of old French money, didn't even back her financially.

https://www.bfmtv.com/politique/valerie-pecresse-je-suis-endettee-personnellement-a-hauteur-de-5-millions-d-euros_VN-202204110240.html

Imagine spending 14 million to humiliate yourself publicly like this. Imagine putting 5 million of your own money into it. And then ask for donations. To run a campaign against the welfare state and putting 200,000 public servants on the bread line.

LMAO

Is Zemmour, going to be reimbursed for his campaign?

Yes unfortunately. 5% gets you the 7 million euros.

Is it a flat payment or does it have to be a reimbursement of the expenses?

the tldr is reimbursement of expenses but these are of course abused and there is now a system in place. If you can read french or google translate you can find info here :

https://www.francetvinfo.fr/elections/presidentielle/resultats-presidentielle-on-vous-explique-les-regles-de-remboursement-des-frais-de-campagne-qui-inquietent-les-candidats-sous-la-barre-des-5_5075356.html

basically you don't just get the money to spend on cocaine and hookers, but Zemmour will likely pay his hooker gf a part of the campaign trail fund so its ambiguous and corrupt.

[Zinneke]

In the end he's disqualified and therefore he loses, but anyway Melenchon scored a string of 'moral victories'

https://twitter.com/Brevesdepresse/status/1513413043744559106?t=59WOej5gmhlKbS_6...

Same energy as Corbyn's "We won the argument" guardian hot op-ed following the 2019 election.

Meluche cultists in a nutshell




And then of course his number 2 coming out this morning saying the results showed that 2/3rds of the population disagreed with Macron...yeah mate but what does that make you?

Will Melenchon make an endorsement?

What I'm really interested in are the parliamentary elections, since they will have a huge impact on what the eventual winner can accomplish. French prez has less executive powers than POTUS as far as I know, and a veto can be overridden with simple majority.

He has a very clear stance : do not vote for Le Pen. That's actually at least clearer than in 2017.

Cohabitation is indeed a possibility. I think the Left will want to turn out.

[Zinneke]

lol Zemmour is being investigated because his campaign made a list of all French jews and he bought a list of their phone numbers to target them for his campaign.

Is he antisemitist?

As stated above he got a lot of support in israel so I'd *assume* not.

Yes he is a self hating antisémite. Holocaust Denier and uncle Tom (or I think the correct term is a Kapo). But obviously for strategic reasons public enemy number 1 must remain Muslims and Arabs.

[Zinneke]

lol Zemmour is being investigated because his campaign made a list of all French jews and he bought a list of their phone numbers to target them for his campaign.

Is he antisemitist?

As stated above he got a lot of support in israel so I'd *assume* not.

Yes he is a self hating antisémite. Holocaust Denier and uncle Tom (or I think the correct term is a Kapo). But obviously for strategic reasons public enemy number 1 must remain Muslims and Arabs.

Are you implying Zemmour's islamophobia is not genuine? Lol

Describing Zemmour as a "self hating Jew" is a bit dumb and simplistic, imo. As far as I know Eric Zemmour does not deny his Jewish identity. The point is that Zemmour is a (far-right,  racist, extreme) French nationalist who believes France is the supteme value. In other words, Zemmour puts his Frenchiness ahead of his Jewishness. The former belongs to the public sphere andcthe latter belongs to the private sphere. In Zemmour's mind, any kind of particularism (ethnic or regional identity) is enemy of the Nation, which is One and Indivisible. Regional separatism and interests separated from those of the French Nation are unacceptable in Zemmour's view. In that regard, I see him as a far-right Jacobin

It's not surprising at all the success of a far-right islamophobic nationalist of Jewish heritage in Israel

No, you are right, Zemmour's character was formed by his family's background and so his Islamophobia is genuine. He believes that because Algeria under the FLN expelled pieds noirs and Jews that all Arabs are like that. But what I meant was his ascendancy is convenient given French political discourse is veering towards that rhetoric. They mention how halal butchers are taking over but nothing against ultra-Orthodx Haredi who self-segregate.

But I do think there is a lot of inner self hatred there. Not only of himself, just look at what an absolute pipsqueak the guy was in certain debates stuttering and chundering like a total beta. But also of his community ; Zemmour would be the kind of Israeli "nationalist" that despises 60-70% of Israel's population. In the end he thought that Petain was justified in giving foreign Jews, and saving French ones. So he would have been a Kapo, 100% he would have betrayed fellow Jews to save his own personalist political ambitions in such a scenario. So this man is an anti-Semite.

[Zinneke]

https://mobile.twitter.com/adb0wen/status/1513607356306923537?ref_src=twsrc%5Etf...
wtf lmao

Like I said early in the thread, the Jeb! Of French politics.


please donate

[Zinneke]

Wonder who voted in Syria and Afghanistan

Mercenaries.

[Zinneke]

Has anyone noted the hilarious irony that Macron is a native of Amiens in the depressed postindustrial north of France, while Le Pen had grown up and currently lives in the posh western suburbs of Paris, in particular Neuilly, Saint-Cloud, and La Celle-Saint-Cloud, basically some of the wealthiest towns in the country. And her father is from Brittany, a region which showed her very little love!

Indeed, although an element to Panzergirl's anti-establishment rhetoric is genuine, precisely because the feeling of rejection she felt frequenting those elite circles and being put in a box because of her family name. In this sense there are some parallels with Trump and his rejection of the Manhattan elite he grew up with.

[Zinneke]

Interesting psephological analysis I saw on reddit

[Zinneke]

The protests "against the results of the 1rst round" by the university students is gathering a lot of media momentum. It's quite clear that rather than dust ourselves down and analyse where we went wrong, the grandstanding and the Macron = Le Pen rhetoric has started from, by their own paramaters, white privileged students who are exercising their privilege by not voting against the far right. Sad state of affairs, but predictable given who their lider maximo is.

[Zinneke]

Who are these Zemmour-Macron voters?

A lot of them very rich people, who are more likely to see le Pen as unacceptably "common".

Reminds me of Henri de Lesquen who called her a leftist that danced to "Negro music".

[Zinneke]

Detailed support patterns for each candidate. Can someone explain Le Pen's strength in northern Gironde?
https://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/presidentielles/presidentielle-2022-decouvrez-la-physionomie-du-vote-par-commune-20220410

It doesn't look like anyone else has touched this yet, so I will. The Garonne river carves a diagonal through the hilly/mountainy southwest of France, creating a valley of agricultural settlements. There are some large river cities like Bordeaux and Toulouse that served as magnets for the rural population, both in the past and now. It is essentially a miniature version of the bigger 'empty diagonal' to it's east.

Unsurprisingly, the diagonal shows up on political maps.





But why is Le Pen strongest there and weaker, but still strong, further down the valley? I can't give you a clear answer on that, but I will note that the reason for it is the lack of Melenchon. Unlike much of the SW, including the rest of the valley, this part of Gironde lacks the socialist political traditions that gave Melenchon decent results across the south.

I found the answer listening to a podcast this weekend : lots of Pieds-Noirs settled in this valley.

[Zinneke]

Roussel may have been a "meme" candidate but he did actually try and send out the right signals to attract that kind of second round voter Al is talking about : he changed his NATO stance stating clearly that NATO withdrawal while Ukraine was under attack was the wrong message to send and that his opposition to NATO was purely a long term structural "fix" to build a peaceful Europe. This is already a signal to many people believing the far left are all Putinist/Chinese assets that they are capable of actual agency in their own decision making and not just tow the Xi Jingping line.

Mélenchon is a very good campaigner and deserves the bald-man-with-comb award, but his campaigning is mostly to finish as the top left candidate, and not actually reach out to segments of the now Macronist or right-wing electorate.

Really though I would not overrated the chances of the Left : all the indicators show that while it is not utterly destroyed as expected, most French voters identify with the political Right and the average French progressive should be pleased a former Socialist Party member is on course for 2 terms because it could have been far, far worse. Our chances could have been taken this Presidential election when the far right vote was split arguably 3 ways, and in a legislative where low turnout from right-wing voters who won't be as motivated. And then maybe a generational shift as the demographics look good, but that's not until a long time given the demographic pyramid.

[Zinneke]

Not that many years ago, the conventional wisdom was that Dominique Strauss-Khan would be the PS candidate for President and would win. had it not been for his sex scandal, he would almost certainly have been elected president in 2012. My question is - from a policy point of view would there have been any difference at all between the policies of a DSK presidency vs the policies of Macron?

Many of Macron’s entourage are ex-DSK. Maybe you wouldn’t have a light fash like Darmamin at Interior though

Less orgies in the Elysée if you count that as a policy though

[Zinneke]

Macron very strong in the debate so far. Called Le Pen Putin’s dependent.

[Zinneke]

Best one yet on Reddit and I haven’t even gone to French 4chan yet

If MLP is elected it would be such a disaster for France. She barely knew her own program.

[Zinneke]

Usually in Europe your first payslip and your first mugging happen around 25.