The New Campaign Trail (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 28, 2024, 08:59:56 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
  The New Campaign Trail (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: The New Campaign Trail  (Read 50611 times)
Schiff for Senate
CentristRepublican
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,187
United States


« on: July 30, 2021, 05:22:57 PM »

I did my worst as Donald Trump in 2020 lol.

Biden won with 437 electoral votes to Trump's 101, and the popular vote 59.4-39.2%.
Below I included a map with statewide results. Shading, obviously, indicates margin, and if you hover over each state I've listed the result to the nearest point. Biden won 34 states. (Also, I had to guess on the congressional districts for ME and NE since they don't show congressional district results in the game.)

Logged
Schiff for Senate
CentristRepublican
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,187
United States


« Reply #1 on: October 12, 2021, 05:11:56 PM »

Wtf is this new meme scenario with Adele running against Jimmy Carter?

I think it's a joke. There's no way the maps are realistic.


As someone who views the subreddit of the game quite frequently, they can get quite meme-ish in there sometimes and this meme culture often finds it's way into mods. For example, in a 1996 mod version that makes the game more competitive Bill Clinton gets impeached for having sexual relations with a soccer ball. It's best not to question or try to take these kinds of mods seriously.

Also some of the mods are aesthetically bad or feel incomplete. Do any that you know of feel exactly like the base game?

I think 1996 is rigged in Dole's favor. I've never managed to get Clinton to win and it seems like Dole always wins in a 400+ landslide no matter what mod I'm in.

2004 is definitely rigged for Bush.
Logged
Schiff for Senate
CentristRepublican
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,187
United States


« Reply #2 on: October 16, 2021, 08:38:55 PM »

Won 2008 as Guiliani-Ryan in a landslide:

Logged
Schiff for Senate
CentristRepublican
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,187
United States


« Reply #3 on: October 25, 2021, 05:20:38 PM »

Anyone else feel like it's almost impossible to win as Bush-Cheney in 2000 on normal?

Maybe this is a new version you're talking about, but 2000 exists on the regular, original Campaign Trail and I have prevailed as Bush there (Normal difficulty) on multiple occassions. I make it a challenge to win WI, OR and NH and have carried all three on one occassion (I've carried WI many times but OR's harder).
Logged
Schiff for Senate
CentristRepublican
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,187
United States


« Reply #4 on: October 27, 2021, 04:59:48 PM »

Anyone else feel like it's almost impossible to win as Bush-Cheney in 2000 on normal?

Maybe this is a new version you're talking about, but 2000 exists on the regular, original Campaign Trail and I have prevailed as Bush there (Normal difficulty) on multiple occassions. I make it a challenge to win WI, OR and NH and have carried all three on one occassion (I've carried WI many times but OR's harder).

That's true, I feel like I have won as Bush-Cheney in 2000 on normal in the regular mode. I'm going to try now.

EDIT: Won 294-244, same map at OTL plus NM, WI, and IA, won popular vote by 38,000 votes 48.5%-48.5%. I guess you're right.

Yeah, I personally think Campaign Trail is more reliable / realistic in some ways than New Campaign Trail, so I use New Campaign Trail only to play mods that aren't available on the regular Campaign Trail. If an election year is on both sites, I'd advise using the latter as it seems to be generally better. That being said, it may be a moot point since Campaign Trail isn't working on my computer, so I have to play New Campaign Trail, not the original, for the time being. I don't know if it isn't working for anyone or if it's just my computer, but if Campaign Trail is working for you I'd advise using it for any election it has.
Logged
Schiff for Senate
CentristRepublican
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,187
United States


« Reply #5 on: February 22, 2022, 04:00:08 PM »

Just played 1980 as Carter a few times. I lost both times but did quite well. The level was the default normal and elecotral votes were distributed in the typical winner-take-all fashion. Unfortunately, I accidentally reloaded the tab with the results. The good news is that I had most of the results already memorized and only missed out on KY, DE and MO:



To my surprise I actually flipped a state Democratic from 1976 - Connecticut (was a Ford/Reagan state in reality, but in this game it turned out to be a Ford/Carter state).
Logged
Schiff for Senate
CentristRepublican
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,187
United States


« Reply #6 on: May 16, 2022, 05:30:52 PM »

Playing at normal difficulty, I pulled off a win as Dukakis in 1988. Got 303 EV's. Didn't break 60% in any state, and in MT, OH and CO, won with pluralities. Bush won only one state (LA) with a plurality, and only one state (UT) with north of 60%.



Bush strongest states: UT  (60.53-37.75%); SC (56.97-42.09%); ID (56.02-42.19%); NH (55.87-42.94%); FL (55.98-43.40%)

Dukakis strongest states: DC (81.11-15.10%); RI (58.45-41.12%); IA (57.81-41.39%); HI (57.61-41.43%); MN (57.03-41.74%); MA (56.88-41.75%)

Closest states (listed all 19 states with <5% margins): OH (D+0.26); CO (D+0.56); MT (D+1.39); TX (R+1.46); ME (R+1.57); SD (D+1.62); LA (R+1.65); MI (D+2.35); CT (D+3.15); DE (R+3.5); NM (D+3.54); KY (R+3.86); MO (D+3.9); ND (R+4.19); NJ (R+4.22); AR (R+4.26); KS (R+4.31); MD (D+4.37); CA (D+4.96)
Logged
Schiff for Senate
CentristRepublican
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,187
United States


« Reply #7 on: May 25, 2022, 01:15:35 AM »

2016 as Clinton-Tester. The mod was way too easy, and the results were unrealistic. Just choosing Tester as my running mate somehow made MT a Clinton+4 state (even as NC and GA went red).

Logged
Schiff for Senate
CentristRepublican
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,187
United States


« Reply #8 on: December 27, 2022, 06:32:53 PM »

After a while I played a game, and it was quite fun.

I played the classic 2012 edition, as Mitt Romney (with Rob Portman as my running mate).

The race was ultimately a dead heat, boiling down to, ironically given their great importance in the primaries as well, NH and IA. Romney was leading in the EC 266-262, meaning that Obama would have to win both states to clinch the presidency (and Romney would need either or both to cross the finish line). Ultimately, IA was called first (Obama+0.2) and NH was subsequently called for Romney (49.8-49.5%). Definitely a pretty exciting game!

I was also satisfied because I won VA, where I sent Romney for most of his campaign visits. It, like all of Romney's states, was necessary for his victory.




States decided by margins of greater than 20 points are the darkest shade. States decided by double-digits, but by less than 20 points, are the next-darkest shade. States decided by single-digits, but by over 5 points, are the middle-shade (note: there was no such Romney state). States decided by under 5 points, but more than a point, are a shade lighter. States decided by under one point (just IA and NH) have the lightest shading.
I tried to shade the states on the map, but halfway through I accidentally shut the tab, lost my progress and decided not to bother. Instead, here are all the states decided by single-digit margins, ordered from closest to least close (despite me saying earlier that NH was decided by 0.3% and Iowa by 0.2%, that was a rounding error and it's actually the opposite, as you see below):

New Hampshire: R+0.24
Iowa: D+0.26
Colorado: D+0.74
Nevada: D+0.76
Pennsylvania: D+1.07
Wisconsin: D+1.44
Florida: R+2.54
Virginia: R+2.81
Ohio: R+2.89

Minnesota: D+3.53
Michigan: D+4.89

North Carolina: R+4.93
New Mexico: D+6.49
Maine: D+6.62
Washington: D+6.79
(perhaps the biggest difference between IRL 2012 result and in-game result)
Oregon: D+7.67
Delaware: D+7.75



Despite the closest state breaking for Romney, there was a large number of states that narrowly broke for Obama - had there been a universal swing of just 1.5 points to the right, a national PV of Romney+0.5, Romney would have won 321 electoral votes, 51 more than he managed, while a similar swing of 1.5 points to the left, to a national PV of Obama+2.5, would've bought Obama just NH's 4 electoral votes, and just barely given him the presidency (with 272 electoral votes).


Apparently, this would be similar enough to 2000 in that the Republican winning by one very closely decided state while the Democrat won the popular vote, since Obama won the national PV 50.0-49.0%, with about 1.3 million votes more than Romney.
Logged
Schiff for Senate
CentristRepublican
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,187
United States


« Reply #9 on: January 04, 2023, 01:42:40 PM »

After a while I played a game, and it was quite fun.

I played the classic 2012 edition, as Mitt Romney (with Rob Portman as my running mate).

The race was ultimately a dead heat, boiling down to, ironically given their great importance in the primaries as well, NH and IA. Romney was leading in the EC 266-262, meaning that Obama would have to win both states to clinch the presidency (and Romney would need either or both to cross the finish line). Ultimately, IA was called first (Obama+0.2) and NH was subsequently called for Romney (49.8-49.5%). Definitely a pretty exciting game!

I was also satisfied because I won VA, where I sent Romney for most of his campaign visits. It, like all of Romney's states, was necessary for his victory.




States decided by margins of greater than 20 points are the darkest shade. States decided by double-digits, but by less than 20 points, are the next-darkest shade. States decided by single-digits, but by over 5 points, are the middle-shade (note: there was no such Romney state). States decided by under 5 points, but more than a point, are a shade lighter. States decided by under one point (just IA and NH) have the lightest shading.
I tried to shade the states on the map, but halfway through I accidentally shut the tab, lost my progress and decided not to bother. Instead, here are all the states decided by single-digit margins, ordered from closest to least close (despite me saying earlier that NH was decided by 0.3% and Iowa by 0.2%, that was a rounding error and it's actually the opposite, as you see below):

New Hampshire: R+0.24
Iowa: D+0.26
Colorado: D+0.74
Nevada: D+0.76
Pennsylvania: D+1.07
Wisconsin: D+1.44
Florida: R+2.54
Virginia: R+2.81
Ohio: R+2.89

Minnesota: D+3.53
Michigan: D+4.89

North Carolina: R+4.93
New Mexico: D+6.49
Maine: D+6.62
Washington: D+6.79
(perhaps the biggest difference between IRL 2012 result and in-game result)
Oregon: D+7.67
Delaware: D+7.75



Despite the closest state breaking for Romney, there was a large number of states that narrowly broke for Obama - had there been a universal swing of just 1.5 points to the right, a national PV of Romney+0.5, Romney would have won 321 electoral votes, 51 more than he managed, while a similar swing of 1.5 points to the left, to a national PV of Obama+2.5, would've bought Obama just NH's 4 electoral votes, and just barely given him the presidency (with 272 electoral votes).


Apparently, this would be similar enough to 2000 in that the Republican winning by one very closely decided state while the Democrat won the popular vote, since Obama won the national PV 50.0-49.0%, with about 1.3 million votes more than Romney.


This gives me real 2000 vibes


I'm cool with it tho because this time my side won  Sunglasses
Logged
Schiff for Senate
CentristRepublican
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,187
United States


« Reply #10 on: December 28, 2023, 06:19:43 PM »

Damnit. Just played the 1924 game for the first time as LaFollette. I'm not sure if the game just gives LaFollette more of an advantage or if I played all my cards right, but I had a much, much more admirable performance than LaFollette managed irl. What's annoying is that LaFollette overperformed in the final results, and had I just flipped CA into his column (it hadn't been on my radar but ultimately it was 45.1% for Harding and 44.5% for LaFollette), I would've pushed the EC into a deadlock - i.e. the closest I could get to victory.

Has anyone managed to win any other states aside from the ones I managed to win for LaFollette? (On normal mode, mind you.)

Logged
Schiff for Senate
CentristRepublican
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,187
United States


« Reply #11 on: January 02, 2024, 01:17:09 PM »

Damnit. Just played the 1924 game for the first time as LaFollette. I'm not sure if the game just gives LaFollette more of an advantage or if I played all my cards right, but I had a much, much more admirable performance than LaFollette managed irl. What's annoying is that LaFollette overperformed in the final results, and had I just flipped CA into his column (it hadn't been on my radar but ultimately it was 45.1% for Harding and 44.5% for LaFollette), I would've pushed the EC into a deadlock - i.e. the closest I could get to victory.

Has anyone managed to win any other states aside from the ones I managed to win for LaFollette? (On normal mode, mind you.)



You can do much better, and the reason you do so much better is because Hardings the nominee

Idk how I was dumb enough to miss that, but it certainly explains it!
Logged
Schiff for Senate
CentristRepublican
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,187
United States


« Reply #12 on: January 02, 2024, 02:44:44 PM »

Damnit. Just played the 1924 game for the first time as LaFollette. I'm not sure if the game just gives LaFollette more of an advantage or if I played all my cards right, but I had a much, much more admirable performance than LaFollette managed irl. What's annoying is that LaFollette overperformed in the final results, and had I just flipped CA into his column (it hadn't been on my radar but ultimately it was 45.1% for Harding and 44.5% for LaFollette), I would've pushed the EC into a deadlock - i.e. the closest I could get to victory.

Has anyone managed to win any other states aside from the ones I managed to win for LaFollette? (On normal mode, mind you.)



You can do much better, and the reason you do so much better is because Hardings the nominee

Idk how I was dumb enough to miss that, but it certainly explains it!


What you'll want to do is attack Harding, but not too much

Yep, I did that for the most part (though iirc on one incident I hit him a little too hard and it didn't help as much as it could've).
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.044 seconds with 12 queries.