More likely to flip: CA-25 or MN-02?

[I’m not Stu]

Which one is more likely to flip? Redistricting will change them.

[Suburbia]

MN-02.

Angie Craig could lose due to the riots and a swing district congressmember goes down in a midterm

[beesley]

CA-25 would be referred to as a flip even if redistricting changes it.

[I’m not Stu]

Each state loses a district. I'm not sure what the new boundaries will look like.

[Progressive Pessimist]

While it is hard to say pre-redistricting, if we were to assume that the districts were exactly the same in 2022 as they are now, a likely Republican favored year, then Craig is more likely to lose.

In my personal opinion though, CA-25 is going to be made more Democratic; and the district sacrificed in Minnesota will probably be Fishbach's.

[I’m not Stu]

While it is hard to say pre-redistricting, if we were to assume that the districts were exactly the same in 2022 as they are now, a likely Republican favored year, then Craig is more likely to lose.

In my personal opinion though, CA-25 is going to be made more Democratic; and the district sacrificed in Minnesota will probably be Fishbach's.

The districts will be different. What might MN-02 look like?

[Progressive Pessimist]

While it is hard to say pre-redistricting, if we were to assume that the districts were exactly the same in 2022 as they are now, a likely Republican favored year, then Craig is more likely to lose.

In my personal opinion though, CA-25 is going to be made more Democratic; and the district sacrificed in Minnesota will probably be Fishbach's.

The districts will be different. What might MN-02 look like?

I know. I am just going off their current boundaries to be able to have an answer to this poll. But if my suspicions end up correct, MN-2 it may be similar but probably stretch into Emmer's district whose district moves westward if the current MN-7 gets nixed. That would make Craig's district more Republican leaning anyway. Probably not worse than an even PVI but that's enough for it to flip during a Republican wave election or possibly even a neutral one.

[I’m not Stu]

While it is hard to say pre-redistricting, if we were to assume that the districts were exactly the same in 2022 as they are now, a likely Republican favored year, then Craig is more likely to lose.

In my personal opinion though, CA-25 is going to be made more Democratic; and the district sacrificed in Minnesota will probably be Fishbach's.

The districts will be different. What might MN-02 look like?

I know. I am just going off their current boundaries to be able to have an answer to this poll. But if my suspicions end up correct, MN-2 it may be similar but probably stretch into Emmer's district whose district moves westward if the current MN-7 gets nixed. That would make Craig's district more Republican leaning anyway. Probably not worse than an even PVI but that's enough for it to flip during a Republican wave election or possibly even a neutral one.

What's your guess on what CA-25 will look like?

[Progressive Pessimist]

While it is hard to say pre-redistricting, if we were to assume that the districts were exactly the same in 2022 as they are now, a likely Republican favored year, then Craig is more likely to lose.

In my personal opinion though, CA-25 is going to be made more Democratic; and the district sacrificed in Minnesota will probably be Fishbach's.

The districts will be different. What might MN-02 look like?

I know. I am just going off their current boundaries to be able to have an answer to this poll. But if my suspicions end up correct, MN-2 it may be similar but probably stretch into Emmer's district whose district moves westward if the current MN-7 gets nixed. That would make Craig's district more Republican leaning anyway. Probably not worse than an even PVI but that's enough for it to flip during a Republican wave election or possibly even a neutral one.

What's your guess on what CA-25 will look like?

That's tougher to say since we're talking about 52 districts possibly being moved around and affecting others, but it's certainly among the easiest to make more Democratic by drawing it deeper into Los Angeles County.

[I’m not Stu]

Minnesota doesn't lose a district.

[BoiseBoy]

It's fairly easy to make both seats more DEM-friendly. I would guess CA-25 flips and MN-02 stays blue.

[Utah Neolib]

CA-25 will change to be more D friendly, same with MN-02.

[SnowLabrador]

MN-02 by far.

[tosk]

overall environment suggests mn-02 but I think it's easier for dems to flip ca-25 than it is for GOP to flip mn-02 given the context of each state.

[Devils30]

Garcia is probably going to lose even if GOP wins the House, district might get bluer and he voted to throw out the 2020 election unlike Kim, Steel and Valadao. He seems like an easy punching bag for Dems.

MN-2 might get bluer in redistricting, Dems might even be able to convince judges that Minnesota should be 5-3 D instead of 4-4.

[Pericles]

Both lose, but Garcia loses by more due to redistricting and his January 6 vote.

[Schiff for Senate]

It's fairly easy to make both seats more DEM-friendly. I would guess CA-25 flips and MN-02 stays blue.

This. And also, the Twin Cities suburbs aren't shifting rightward; they are basically gone for the GOP now, barring a great year. Just because it's 2022 is no reason to assume Craig will automatically, as she is a strongish incumbent in a swing (but shifting Democratic) district. CA25, on the other hands, is in the Los Angeles area and was a decisively Biden district. Favourable redistricting should make Garcia's loss inevitable.