Seeking to inoculate his campaign against the Republican charge that he's "soft" on national security, Dean chooses General Wesley Clark as his running mate. Bush's attempts to tar him as a "Vermont liberal" don't stick, as the governor touts his A+ rating from the NRA and his support for small business.
His penchant for shooting from the lip lands him in hot water from time to time- as when he famously calls Bush a "dunce" in a campaign speech in Wisconsin- but his generally moderate record, his consistent opposition to the war in Iraq, and his call for universal healthcare make him a formidable contender. Just before Election Day, polling shows him in a dead heat with the President.
Dean wins the electoral vote 289-249; the popular vote is 50-49. A stunning 3-point victory in West Virginia- a state where all the polls had given Bush a consistent lead- is the icing on the cake.
Now, the fun part... why would Dean do better than Kerry, supposedly a much stronger candidate?
- He is absolutely consistent on the war, as noted above. Remember the infamous "I actually voted for the $87 billion, before I voted against it"? None of that here. The GOP couldn't paint him as a flip-flopper.
- No military record of his own. Ironically, what had been Kerry's greatest strength- his honorable service in Vietnam- became a liability as the Swift Boat liars dragged his name through the mud. None of that in this scenario. The GOP does attempt a "Swift Boating" of his running mate, questioning his service as NATO Supreme Commander, but it doesn't stick. Why? (1) Running mates frankly aren't as interesting, and (2) Dean never allows the Republicans to set the terms of the debate. In other words, he refutes their charges but then brings everyone's attention back to W's failures.
- He fights. He isn't afraid to say it like it is; this sometimes gets him into trouble, but more often it delights his supporters.
- He is pro-gun. The NRA still endorses Bush in this scenario, but doesn't bother to pour its immense resources into the race. This gives Dean a major advantage over Kerry in the upper Midwest, the Rocky Mountain states, and in populist zones like rural Pennsylvania and West Virginia.
- Not as "culturally" weak. Everything about Kerry, from his immense fortune to his "foreign" wife to his supposed ability to speak French (and windsurf!) pissed off the nativist right. Dean seems like more of a "regular guy" than the patrician Kerry, helping him among shallow "swing" voters.
He runs better than Kerry in all states except for Massachusetts and North Carolina, where Edwards did help a bit.
