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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs?
  Past Election What-ifs (US) (Moderators: Where is my Freistaat Preußen avatar?, Apocrypha)
  Dean vs Bush 2004
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Author Topic: Dean vs Bush 2004  (Read 4366 times)
Michael Z
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« on: August 20, 2006, 08:04:19 pm »

Howard Dean manages to carry the Iowa caucus in a narrow victory and the Dean Scream is never let loose. He eventually wins the Democratic nomination on a knife edge against Kerry and Edwards. What happens next? Does he fare as badly (or as well, depending on your POV) as Kerry? Does he pull off a sensation and beat Bush? Or does he follow in McGovern and Mondale's footsteps and lose in a landslide? Furthermore, who's his running mate? It's your choose.
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Rob
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« Reply #1 on: August 20, 2006, 09:24:55 pm »
« Edited: August 20, 2006, 09:39:05 pm by Rob »

Seeking to inoculate his campaign against the Republican charge that he's "soft" on national security, Dean chooses General Wesley Clark as his running mate. Bush's attempts to tar him as a "Vermont liberal" don't stick, as the governor touts his A+ rating from the NRA and his support for small business.

His penchant for shooting from the lip lands him in hot water from time to time- as when he famously calls Bush a "dunce" in a campaign speech in Wisconsin- but his generally moderate record, his consistent opposition to the war in Iraq, and his call for universal healthcare make him a formidable contender. Just before Election Day, polling shows him in a dead heat with the President.



Dean wins the electoral vote 289-249; the popular vote is 50-49. A stunning 3-point victory in West Virginia- a state where all the polls had given Bush a consistent lead- is the icing on the cake.

Now, the fun part... why would Dean do better than Kerry, supposedly a much stronger candidate?

- He is absolutely consistent on the war, as noted above. Remember the infamous "I actually voted for the $87 billion, before I voted against it"? None of that here. The GOP couldn't paint him as a flip-flopper.

- No military record of his own. Ironically, what had been Kerry's greatest strength- his honorable service in Vietnam- became a liability as the Swift Boat liars dragged his name through the mud. None of that in this scenario. The GOP does attempt a "Swift Boating" of his running mate, questioning his service as NATO Supreme Commander, but it doesn't stick. Why? (1) Running mates frankly aren't as interesting, and (2) Dean never allows the Republicans to set the terms of the debate. In other words, he refutes their charges but then brings everyone's attention back to W's failures.

- He fights. He isn't afraid to say it like it is; this sometimes gets him into trouble, but more often it delights his supporters.

- He is pro-gun. The NRA still endorses Bush in this scenario, but doesn't bother to pour its immense resources into the race. This gives Dean a major advantage over Kerry in the upper Midwest, the Rocky Mountain states, and in populist zones like rural Pennsylvania and West Virginia.

- Not as "culturally" weak. Everything about Kerry, from his immense fortune to his "foreign" wife to his supposed ability to speak French (and windsurf!) pissed off the nativist right. Dean seems like more of a "regular guy" than the patrician Kerry, helping him among shallow "swing" voters.

He runs better than Kerry in all states except for Massachusetts and North Carolina, where Edwards did help a bit.
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ATFFL
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« Reply #2 on: August 21, 2006, 12:21:44 am »

Clark on the ticket=ticket demolished.  All the Reps do is pull out the tape of him trying to start World War III and he is done.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #3 on: August 21, 2006, 02:33:29 am »

Basically this is the reason why I wouldn't have wanted Dean to get the nomination - basically if they (Rove and Co.) were able to turn 3x Purple heart winner into a yellow-bellied appeaser what the HELL do you think they would've done to Dean?



Bush - 344
Dean -194
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #4 on: August 21, 2006, 06:33:56 am »

There are two possible outcomes:

1. Something along the lines of Rob's map.

2. Something along the lines of 1972.

At least he wouldn't have lost narrowly Tongue
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DownWithTheLeft
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« Reply #5 on: August 21, 2006, 07:57:10 am »

Dean is smashed, I was rooting for him all along:

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MasterJedi
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« Reply #6 on: August 21, 2006, 08:01:58 am »

Fezzy has the most accurate map so far, and Rob is nuts. -_-
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True Democrat
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« Reply #7 on: August 21, 2006, 08:37:01 am »



354-184 Bush
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J. J.
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« Reply #8 on: August 21, 2006, 09:11:44 am »
« Edited: August 21, 2006, 09:13:52 am by J. J. »

A few points:

1.  How bad was the contest for the D nomination?  Is it over after Iowa, NH, and maybe one quick one.  Kerry was basically the nominee by default; nobody could stomach the others.  Dean suddenly gains appeal within the party, and he wins by the end of February, he's much stronger in the fall.

2.  Dean, not having to move to the left so much in the Primaries, emphasises his moderate side:

A.  Gun owning rights become a cornerstone of his campaign. 

B.  He treats abortion as a "medical issue" and follows Bill Clinton's "safe, legal, and rare."

C.  He favors "contracts" between two people of the same sex, "What two adult people do in the privacy of their own home, so long as they are hurting anyone, isn't government business," and but opposes marriage, noting that is more a religious concept and should be left to churches.  He addresses some subsidiary issues, like pensions and divorce for same sex contracts.

3.  He opposes going to war, but then states, "The Iraq War is war badly made."  He recognizes that he cannot withdraw everyone immediately, but sets a deadline, Jan 1, 2007; he may recognize that a build up may be needed until then.  He compares it to the pain in removing an appendix.

Here is the map:

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ATFFL
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« Reply #9 on: August 21, 2006, 09:43:56 am »

A few points:

1.  How bad was the contest for the D nomination?  Is it over after Iowa, NH, and maybe one quick one.  Kerry was basically the nominee by default; nobody could stomach the others.  Dean suddenly gains appeal within the party, and he wins by the end of February, he's much stronger in the fall.

2.  Dean, not having to move to the left so much in the Primaries, emphasises his moderate side:

A.  Gun owning rights become a cornerstone of his campaign. 

B.  He treats abortion as a "medical issue" and follows Bill Clinton's "safe, legal, and rare."

C.  He favors "contracts" between two people of the same sex, "What two adult people do in the privacy of their own home, so long as they are hurting anyone, isn't government business," and but opposes marriage, noting that is more a religious concept and should be left to churches.  He addresses some subsidiary issues, like pensions and divorce for same sex contracts.

By this point in time, he had already set himself up as the Liberal candidate.    He would have had a hard time abandoning his positions from the early primary days once attack ads were running again.  He would have walked right into the flip-flop charge.
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Nym90
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« Reply #10 on: August 21, 2006, 10:30:50 am »

There are two possible outcomes:

1. Something along the lines of Rob's map.

2. Something along the lines of 1972.

At least he wouldn't have lost narrowly Tongue

I think you are dead on. I could see him catching fire with people like Rob's scenario but then he could be spun as a crazed extremist also. All depends on who controls the media message and the spin.

I think the debates between Bush and Dean would've been fun, however.
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J. J.
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« Reply #11 on: August 21, 2006, 11:09:54 am »


By this point in time, he had already set himself up as the Liberal candidate.    He would have had a hard time abandoning his positions from the early primary days once attack ads were running again.  He would have walked right into the flip-flop charge.

Not really, at least before Jan 2004.  Dean was liberal on the war, that was the really defining issue on him.  He sounded moderate as a governor and starting in the campaign.  He could have sounded very moderate.
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Lincoln Republican
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« Reply #12 on: August 21, 2006, 12:07:27 pm »

Dean picks Congressman Dick Gephardt of Missouri as his running mate.

Gephardt makes a good impression.

The Republicans are successful in painting Dean as a leftist, deserved or not, they succeed in this strategy, using many of Dean's own statements and speeches.

The bottom line, Republicans succeed in convincing voters that Dean is not up to the job of President.

A big win for Bush.

Bush/Cheney          345 EV  53% PV
Dean/Gephardt       193 EV  47% PV

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Reignman
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« Reply #13 on: August 21, 2006, 01:24:26 pm »

Dean probably loses about as much as Kerry did. Dean would've been painted as an ultra-liberal instead of a flip-flopper.

Clark or a senator gets veep for Dean's lack of foreign policy experience (being a governor and all).
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jerusalemcar5
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« Reply #14 on: August 21, 2006, 03:40:20 pm »

No way Bush wins PA or OR.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #15 on: August 21, 2006, 03:54:52 pm »


What do you mean no way? PA would not go for Dean.



Dean picks Gephardt as his running mate and it goes like this...





I think Michigan and Oregon could swing either way.

Bush - 321
Dean - 217
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Rob
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« Reply #16 on: August 21, 2006, 06:00:34 pm »

Fezzy has the most accurate map so far, and Rob is nuts. -_-

That's not funny. -_-
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MasterJedi
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« Reply #17 on: August 21, 2006, 06:57:06 pm »

Fezzy has the most accurate map so far, and Rob is nuts. -_-

That's not funny. -_-

I don't care if you think it's not funny, you're the far leftist with the wrong map.
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Rob
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« Reply #18 on: August 21, 2006, 07:02:22 pm »


Debatable, but certainly far better than being a religious rightist. -_-


How was my map "wrong"? Do you realize that this race was a hypothetical, and therefore nobody has a "right" map?
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #19 on: August 21, 2006, 07:03:15 pm »

Trust me Rob, it's pointless.
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #20 on: August 22, 2006, 02:39:14 pm »

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Reignman
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« Reply #21 on: August 22, 2006, 02:48:06 pm »

Huh

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auburntiger
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« Reply #22 on: September 14, 2006, 07:09:26 pm »
« Edited: September 14, 2006, 07:11:19 pm by auburntiger »


Bush wins 331-207




Bush takes MN, WI, and PA, but it's not a landslide. The electorate is too divided for there to be a landslide nowadays.

I think a landslide is when a candidate reaches 350+
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