IA-03: former state rep Mary Ann Hanusa in

[Matty]

https://mobile.twitter.com/rpyers/status/1382808856271548420

[S019]

If this district stays as is, this will be competitive, if it becomes a Des Moines centered seat (which is what I expect, regardless of whether or not the eastern hourglass happens), then this is probably Lean D. Since a computer draws the map in Iowa, a lot is left to be decided obviously, but even in a Des Moines centered seat, Axne could absolutely lose, if the wave is large enough. TL;DR tossup if seat remains as is, Lean D if it becomes a Des-Moines centered seat.

[WD]

She’ll lose by atleast 20-25 points after experiencing the full force of the Fink’s coattails

[Roll Roons]

IA-03 will have to shrink because of growth in Polk and Dallas. So it'll probably lose Council Bluffs, which is where Hanusa lives.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

IA-03 will have to shrink because of growth in Polk and Dallas. So it'll probably lose Council Bluffs, which is where Hanusa lives.

I think the Democrats may’ve dodged a bullet by not pushing the IA-2 issue.  As it stands, Hart probably would’ve lost anyway in 2022 (even in an untouched IA-2 in a Democratic year) and I think it’s about 50-50 whether Republicans try to keep IA-3 competitive/make it a Dem pack (as opposed to targeting Axne), but they definitely would’ve gone for a 0-4 gerrymander if the House installed Hart in place of MMM (imo, it’s not really clear who won, but at this point it is what it is).

[S019]

IA-03 will have to shrink because of growth in Polk and Dallas. So it'll probably lose Council Bluffs, which is where Hanusa lives.

I think the Democrats may’ve dodged a bullet by not pushing the IA-2 issue.  As it stands, Hart probably would’ve lost anyway in 2022 (even in an untouched IA-2 in a Democratic year) and I think it’s about 50-50 whether Republicans try to keep IA-3 competitive/make it a Dem pack (as opposed to targeting Axne), but they definitely would’ve gone for a 0-4 gerrymander if the House installed Hart in place of MMM (imo, it’s not really clear who won, but at this point it is what it is).

Republicans don't draw the map, a commission does.

[Mr.Phips]

If this district stays as is, this will be competitive, if it becomes a Des Moines centered seat (which is what I expect, regardless of whether or not the eastern hourglass happens), then this is probably Lean D. Since a computer draws the map in Iowa, a lot is left to be decided obviously, but even in a Des Moines centered seat, Axne could absolutely lose, if the wave is large enough. TL;DR tossup if seat remains as is, Lean D if it becomes a Des-Moines centered seat.

A Des Moines centered seat even would have voted for Hillary Clinton by a decent margin.  Axne would not lose there.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

IA-03 will have to shrink because of growth in Polk and Dallas. So it'll probably lose Council Bluffs, which is where Hanusa lives.

I think the Democrats may’ve dodged a bullet by not pushing the IA-2 issue.  As it stands, Hart probably would’ve lost anyway in 2022 (even in an untouched IA-2 in a Democratic year) and I think it’s about 50-50 whether Republicans try to keep IA-3 competitive/make it a Dem pack (as opposed to targeting Axne), but they definitely would’ve gone for a 0-4 gerrymander if the House installed Hart in place of MMM (imo, it’s not really clear who won, but at this point it is what it is).

Republicans don't draw the map, a commission does.

Yeah but its an advisory commission they don't have to listen to them