USA 2020 Census Results Thread (Release: Today, 26 April)

[cinyc]

2020 Racial Data was added to the County Sub interactive. Click on Menu-->Racial-->Top or whatever you want to see mapped.

I'll probably get around to mapping 2010 and changes since then for each group, eventually:

https://cinycmaps.com/index.php/2-uncategorized/95-2020-census-county-sub-population-change-map

[cinyc]

More Census maps – this time at the block level:

Alaska:
https://cinycmaps.com/index.php/20-census/2020-ak-block

NYC:
https://cinycmaps.com/index.php/20-census/2020-nyc-block

Major takeaway – block data is very noisy, perhaps due to differential privacy.

Click on Menu–>Racial for Hispanic and Non-Hispanic racial group maps.

The County and Place with Remainder maps have been updated with this racial data, too.

[jimrtex]

At Jim's suggestion, I updated the Place with Remainder map to show Counties minus incorporated places as the balance of counties for the estimates comparison map (now using the official April estimates, I think). I haven't fixed the shapefile to take out the CDPs yet. Pretend they don't exist for now. Maybe later.

There is a consistent divergent distribution in Texas, where the cities were overestimated, while the area outside the cities were underestimated.

I think there is a systemic error in Census Bureau methodology.

Do you mind if I pass this along to the PEP people?

[cinyc]

At Jim's suggestion, I updated the Place with Remainder map to show Counties minus incorporated places as the balance of counties for the estimates comparison map (now using the official April estimates, I think). I haven't fixed the shapefile to take out the CDPs yet. Pretend they don't exist for now. Maybe later.

There is a consistent divergent distribution in Texas, where the cities were overestimated, while the area outside the cities were underestimated.

I think there is a systemic error in Census Bureau methodology.

Do you mind if I pass this along to the PEP people?

I don't care.

I'm pretty sure they're analyzing their own maps and data to try to figure out why the PEP was so off in the Northeast, anyway. TX is a whole other animal from that error, though.

[Suburbia]

Long Island is getting more diverse....

https://www.newsday.com/long-island/population-gains-losses-long-island-1.50332854#:~:text=Long%20Island%27s%20population%20grew%203.1,by%20the%20U.S.%20Census%20Bureau.

[lfromnj]

What city had the longest streak of declining population only to increase the previous decade? I see Scranton and Wilkes Barres were declining for 80 years but then increased by 2020.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

What city had the longest streak of declining population only to increase the previous decade? I see Scranton and Wilkes Barres were declining for 80 years but then increased by 2020.

The Biden effect.

[Biden his time]

The 2020 U.S. Census Redistricting File has been released on data.census.gov in a user-friendly format.

Time to get to downloading!

[Biden his time]

Island Area Populations were released yesterday:

153,835 (-3.5% decadal decrease) - GUAM
87,146 (-18.1% decadal decrease) - US VIRGIN ISLANDS
49,710 (-10.5% decadal decrease) - AMERICAN SAMOA
47,329 (-12.2% decadal decrease) - NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Island Area Populations were released yesterday:

153,835 (-3.5% decadal decrease) - GUAM
87,146 (-18.1% decadal decrease) - US VIRGIN ISLANDS
49,710 (-10.5% decadal decrease) - AMERICAN SAMOA
47,329 (-12.2% decadal decrease) - NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS

All 4 declining? Has this happened before?

[Frodo]

The 2020 census likely left out people of color at rates higher than a decade ago

Last year's approximately $14.2 billion census likely undercounted people of color at higher rates than those of the previous once-a-decade tally, an Urban Institute study involving simulated census results released Tuesday suggests.

Researchers at the Washington, D.C.-based think tank say that while the Census Bureau may have continued to overcount people who identified as white and not Latino, it also likely failed to count some 2.5 million people in other racial and ethnic groups.

The Urban Institute estimates that nationwide, the net undercount rates by race or ethnicity were highest for Black people (2.45%), Latinx people (2.17%) and Pacific Islanders (1.52%). The estimated net undercount rates for Asian Americans and Native Americans were each less than a percent.

The study, which cites NPR's reporting, also finds last year's net undercount rate for children under 5 (4.86%) is likely higher than what is considered the bureau's most reliable 2010 estimate. The net undercount rate for renters may have almost doubled over the past decade to 2.13%, and for households with noncitizens, that rate may have been as high as 3.36%.

The Urban Institute's method for calculating the national head count's accuracy is different from what the Census Bureau uses. The think tank's new figures come months before the bureau is set to start releasing its over- and undercount estimates from a follow-up survey for a census that was disrupted by the coronavirus pandemic and interference from former President Donald Trump's administration, including a failed push to add a citizenship question.

[The Free North]

The 2020 census likely left out people of color at rates higher than a decade ago

Last year's approximately $14.2 billion census likely undercounted people of color at higher rates than those of the previous once-a-decade tally, an Urban Institute study involving simulated census results released Tuesday suggests.

Researchers at the Washington, D.C.-based think tank say that while the Census Bureau may have continued to overcount people who identified as white and not Latino, it also likely failed to count some 2.5 million people in other racial and ethnic groups.

The Urban Institute estimates that nationwide, the net undercount rates by race or ethnicity were highest for Black people (2.45%), Latinx people (2.17%) and Pacific Islanders (1.52%). The estimated net undercount rates for Asian Americans and Native Americans were each less than a percent.

The study, which cites NPR's reporting, also finds last year's net undercount rate for children under 5 (4.86%) is likely higher than what is considered the bureau's most reliable 2010 estimate. The net undercount rate for renters may have almost doubled over the past decade to 2.13%, and for households with noncitizens, that rate may have been as high as 3.36%.

The Urban Institute's method for calculating the national head count's accuracy is different from what the Census Bureau uses. The think tank's new figures come months before the bureau is set to start releasing its over- and undercount estimates from a follow-up survey for a census that was disrupted by the coronavirus pandemic and interference from former President Donald Trump's administration, including a failed push to add a citizenship question.

Its hard to take any body of work that uses the term 'Latinx' seriously.

[Biden his time]

The 2020 census likely left out people of color at rates higher than a decade ago

Last year's approximately $14.2 billion census likely undercounted people of color at higher rates than those of the previous once-a-decade tally, an Urban Institute study involving simulated census results released Tuesday suggests.

Researchers at the Washington, D.C.-based think tank say that while the Census Bureau may have continued to overcount people who identified as white and not Latino, it also likely failed to count some 2.5 million people in other racial and ethnic groups.

The Urban Institute estimates that nationwide, the net undercount rates by race or ethnicity were highest for Black people (2.45%), Latinx people (2.17%) and Pacific Islanders (1.52%). The estimated net undercount rates for Asian Americans and Native Americans were each less than a percent.

The study, which cites NPR's reporting, also finds last year's net undercount rate for children under 5 (4.86%) is likely higher than what is considered the bureau's most reliable 2010 estimate. The net undercount rate for renters may have almost doubled over the past decade to 2.13%, and for households with noncitizens, that rate may have been as high as 3.36%.

The Urban Institute's method for calculating the national head count's accuracy is different from what the Census Bureau uses. The think tank's new figures come months before the bureau is set to start releasing its over- and undercount estimates from a follow-up survey for a census that was disrupted by the coronavirus pandemic and interference from former President Donald Trump's administration, including a failed push to add a citizenship question.

Its hard to take any body of work that uses the term 'Latinx' seriously.

Not to mention that minority populations were actually significantly higher than expected:

Black - 46.7M estimate vs. 47.5M actual (14.2% expected vs. 14.2% actual)
Hispanic/Latino - 63.6M estimate vs. 65.3M actual (19.2% expected vs. 19.5% actual)
Asian - 22.4M estimate vs. 24.0M actual (6.8% expected vs. 7.2% actual)

[Biden his time]

On NOVEMBER 16, the geographic center of US population for the 2020 Census will be released

[cinyc]

On NOVEMBER 16, the geographic center of US population for the 2020 Census will be released

So where in Missouri will it be?

[Biden his time]

On NOVEMBER 16, the geographic center of US population for the 2020 Census will be released

So where in Missouri will it be?

Image Link

The hart of America's near Hartville

[Frodo]

On NOVEMBER 16, the geographic center of US population for the 2020 Census will be released

So where in Missouri will it be?

Image Link

The hart of America's near Hartville

So in coming decades, that center should reach Arkansas or Oklahoma once it leaves Missouri. 

[Skill and Chance]

On NOVEMBER 16, the geographic center of US population for the 2020 Census will be released

So where in Missouri will it be?

Image Link

The hart of America's near Hartville

So in coming decades, that center should reach Arkansas or Oklahoma once it leaves Missouri. 

Oklahoma is tantalizingly close to population center = geographic center, but it's too far south, particularly if you count Alaska.  We need Seattle to become the second largest city and the NE needs to hold on like it did in 2020.

[Antonio the Sixth]

On NOVEMBER 16, the geographic center of US population for the 2020 Census will be released

So where in Missouri will it be?

Image Link

The hart of America's near Hartville

So in coming decades, that center should reach Arkansas or Oklahoma once it leaves Missouri. 

It will be a sad day when America's center moves into Confederate territory.

[nclib]

Is there a list of population of the outgoing congressional districts?

[jimrtex]

Is there a list of population of the outgoing congressional districts?

The PL 94-171 data is tabulated for congressional districts (and state legislative districts)

The Top 10. After redistricting, DE-AL will be tops followed by WV-1 and WV-2.

MT-AL	1,084,225
DE-AL	989,948
TX-22	972,309
FL-9	955,602
ID-1	954,891
TX-26	943,106
TX-10	937,982
TX-31	933,772
TX-3	933,008
TX-8	916,386

The Bottom 10. After redistricting the two MT districts will be bottom, below the two RI districts, and the the three Nebraska districts.

ME-2	658,148
SC-6	646,463
VT-AL	643,077
WV-2	621,081
WV-1	602,044
NE-3	600,683
WY-AL	576,851
WV-3	570,591
RI-1	554,307
RI-2	543,072

The closest statewide range are:

HI: 4391
RI 11K
NH 17K
NM 19K (3)
OR 40K (5)
ME 46K
CT 47K (5)

The largest statewide ranges are:

TX: 264K
FL: 228K
VA: 188K
GA: 186K
SC: 172K
NC: 171K
NV: 152K
AR: 152K (it was pretty surprising to find AR on the list)

[Biden his time]

Census Bureau Releases Estimates of Undercount and Overcount in the 2020 Census

-0.24% TOTAL UNDERCOUNT NATIONWIDE
(compared to +0.01% overcount in 2010)

-3.30% TOTAL UNDERCOUNT AMONG AFRICAN AMERICANS
(compared to -2.06% undercount in 2010)

-4.99% TOTAL UNDERCOUNT AMONG HISPANIC AMERICANS
(compared to -1.54% undercount in 2010)

-5.64% TOTAL UNDERCOUNT AMONG NATIVES LIVING ON RESERVATIONS
(compared to -4.88% undercount in 2010)

+1.64% OVERCOUNT AMONG NON-HISPANIC WHITE AMERICANS
(compared to +0.83% overcount in 2010)

+2.62% OVERCOUNT AMONG ASIAN AMERICANS
(compared to 0.00% in 2010)

+1.28% OVERCOUNT AMONG NATIVE HAWAIIANS AND PACIFIC ISLANDERS
(compared to +1.02% overcount in 2010)


Undercount means the true estimated population is higher than what was recorded
Overcount means the true estimated population is lower than what was recorded

[cinyc]

Census Bureau Releases Estimates of Undercount and Overcount in the 2020 Census

-0.24% TOTAL UNDERCOUNT NATIONWIDE
(compared to +0.01% overcount in 2010)

-3.30% TOTAL UNDERCOUNT AMONG AFRICAN AMERICANS
(compared to -2.06% undercount in 2010)

-4.99% TOTAL UNDERCOUNT AMONG HISPANIC AMERICANS
(compared to -1.54% undercount in 2010)

-5.64% TOTAL UNDERCOUNT AMONG NATIVES LIVING ON RESERVATIONS
(compared to -4.88% undercount in 2010)

+1.64% OVERCOUNT AMONG NON-HISPANIC WHITE AMERICANS
(compared to +0.83% overcount in 2010)

+2.62% OVERCOUNT AMONG ASIAN AMERICANS
(compared to 0.00% in 2010)

+1.28% OVERCOUNT AMONG NATIVE HAWAIIANS AND PACIFIC ISLANDERS
(compared to +1.02% overcount in 2010)


Undercount means the true estimated population is higher than what was recorded
Overcount means the true estimated population is lower than what was recorded

Most of this undercount/overcount was already accounted for by imputation or deduplication efforts - at least from the screaming headlines in much of the media about an undercount of millions.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Census Bureau Releases Estimates of Undercount and Overcount in the 2020 Census

-0.24% TOTAL UNDERCOUNT NATIONWIDE
(compared to +0.01% overcount in 2010)

-3.30% TOTAL UNDERCOUNT AMONG AFRICAN AMERICANS
(compared to -2.06% undercount in 2010)

-4.99% TOTAL UNDERCOUNT AMONG HISPANIC AMERICANS
(compared to -1.54% undercount in 2010)

-5.64% TOTAL UNDERCOUNT AMONG NATIVES LIVING ON RESERVATIONS
(compared to -4.88% undercount in 2010)

+1.64% OVERCOUNT AMONG NON-HISPANIC WHITE AMERICANS
(compared to +0.83% overcount in 2010)

+2.62% OVERCOUNT AMONG ASIAN AMERICANS
(compared to 0.00% in 2010)

+1.28% OVERCOUNT AMONG NATIVE HAWAIIANS AND PACIFIC ISLANDERS
(compared to +1.02% overcount in 2010)


Undercount means the true estimated population is higher than what was recorded
Overcount means the true estimated population is lower than what was recorded

Interesting that both Asians and Pacific Islanders were overcounted by more than Non-Hispanic Whites. Wonder if this is correlated with the one-drop rule being applied to mixed-race folks, as seems to be the case on here.

https://archive.ph/tycWl

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Census Bureau Releases Estimates of Undercount and Overcount in the 2020 Census

-0.24% TOTAL UNDERCOUNT NATIONWIDE
(compared to +0.01% overcount in 2010)

-3.30% TOTAL UNDERCOUNT AMONG AFRICAN AMERICANS
(compared to -2.06% undercount in 2010)

-4.99% TOTAL UNDERCOUNT AMONG HISPANIC AMERICANS
(compared to -1.54% undercount in 2010)

-5.64% TOTAL UNDERCOUNT AMONG NATIVES LIVING ON RESERVATIONS
(compared to -4.88% undercount in 2010)

+1.64% OVERCOUNT AMONG NON-HISPANIC WHITE AMERICANS
(compared to +0.83% overcount in 2010)

+2.62% OVERCOUNT AMONG ASIAN AMERICANS
(compared to 0.00% in 2010)

+1.28% OVERCOUNT AMONG NATIVE HAWAIIANS AND PACIFIC ISLANDERS
(compared to +1.02% overcount in 2010)


Undercount means the true estimated population is higher than what was recorded
Overcount means the true estimated population is lower than what was recorded

Interesting that both Asians and Pacific Islanders were overcounted by more than Non-Hispanic Whites. Wonder if this is correlated with the one-drop rule being applied to mixed-race folks, as seems to be the case on here.

https://archive.ph/tycWl

https://aapidata.com/blog/census-accuracy-2020/

Overcounted individuals were individuals who were counted in multiple locations, like college students being counted at their parents’ homes rather than at school, families with multiple homes, children with shared custody, or households that moved during the decennial count. A similar post-enumeration survey for the 2010 Census revealed essentially no overcount or undercount for both groups, with net coverage rates of 0 percent and -1.02  percent for Asian Americans and Native Hawaiians and Pacific Islanders, respectively, though neither measure was statistically significant from zero. Positive net coverage rates indicate a net overcount and negative net coverage rates indicate a net undercount.



Even though net coverage rates for AANHPI communities indicated no net undercount, we know from previous censuses and other government surveys that there are significant differences between the members of our community who are overcounted and those who are undercounted. With the examples above, we see that those who are most likely to be overcounted tend to be more economically advantaged, while those who are most likely to be undercounted include economically disadvantaged groups, such as recent immigrants, low-income families, young children, and refugees. While the two types of errors in the Census balance each other out for AANHPIs, the biases in who is overcounted and who is undercounted impacts the underlying disaggregated data. This is another case where aggregated data for AANHPI communities ends up hiding a significant issue, in this case, the challenges of outreach to specific ethnic groups or geographic areas within AANHPI populations.

More importantly, when we examine the components of 2020 Census coverage, we find that the biggest improvement in census coverage for AANHPI communities occurred in the decrease in the rate of omissions. The Census Bureau defines omissions as people who should have been enumerated, but were not. The omissions rate for Asian Americans dropped from 5.3 percent in 2010 to 3.5 percent in 2020, while the rate for Native Hawaiians and Pacific Islanders fell from 7.9 percent in 2010 to 6.6 percent in 2020. The decrease in omissions rate for Asian Americans was statistically significant, but the decrease for Native Hawaiians and Pacific Islanders was not.