Maybe I'm crazy but...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

OK, I'll admit these predictions are quite as longshots as the ones in Phil's thread, but many would probably dispute them. Anyway:

1-Klobuchar will win by a significantly larger margin than Kerry did

2-Casey will get over 52%

3-Cardin will get over 55%

4-Tester will win by a wider margin than Schweitzer did in 2004

5-Byrd will break 70%

6-Menendez will win by at least 4 points

[opebo]

None of these seem like such a stretch to me, BRTD.

[© tweed]

1. Depends on the meaning of "significantly", but I think she'll do better than Kerry did
2. 50/50 shot
3. Probably, if he wins the primary
4. No
5. Sure
6. Of course!  Easily.

[Deano963]

These all seem like pretty safe and conventional bets to me.

[Sam Spade]

OK, I'll admit these predictions are quite as longshots as the ones in Phil's thread, but many would probably dispute them. Anyway:

1-Klobuchar will win by a significantly larger margin than Kerry did

What is a "significantly larger margin"?  Could she win by 6-8 points?  Yes.  Will she win by 10+ points?  Highly unlikely, to where I would say no.

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Quite possible, it is worth wagering for, though Casey has been polling weaker of late, making the possibility lower.

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One would think if the Democrats unite after the primary, it is quite possible.  Cardin is still not polling very strong, though, imo.

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Schweitzer won in 2000?  This is news to me and my executives at Diebold.

In 2004, Schweitzer got 50%.  Could Tester get more than Schweitzer did? Probably, but if he got much less, he'd probably lose.

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Byrd has been polling in the mid-to upper 50%.  That is not the requisite number for a incumbent candidate to break 70%, BRTD, unless you think the polls are wrong.

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This could happen.  Most definitely.

Except for #5, none of your predictions are really very out-of-the-potential mainstream.  I think that opebo has infected your thinking with a white-bread menatliry.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

By significant I mean above what could simply be written off as statistical variation.

[DownWithTheLeft]

1. Kloubachar wins by about 5 or 6, Idk if that is signifigant enough
2. How can Casey get 52% if Santorum wins
3. Possibly if he wins the primary which isn't a sure thing
4. Tester is an awful campaigner, probably wins but by the skins of his teeth.
5. Probably more like 80
6.  DEFINETLY NOT! I'd be suprised to see Menendez win, the race goes less than 3 points either way.  Menendez is on a downward spiral in approval and that's before Zelena Farber becomes that well-known and her amazing comment about NJ ethical standards being too high for politicians.  Jim "King of Corruption" McGreevey wouldn't appoint her!  Wait for Kean Sr. to hit the trail and you'll see the immediate bounce.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

1) Casey will edge out Santorum for less then 2,000 votes.

He'll win by larger than that most likely.

2) Michigan, Wisconsin, Maine, and possibly Illinois will elect Republican Governors.

Michigan - likely, Wisconsin - slim chance, Maine - possibly but less likely, Illinois - not likely

3) Democrats take Missouri, and Tennesse Senate Races in upsets.

Missouri is a complete toss-up, wouldn't be so much of an upset. I'd love to see Tennesse but that's probalby not happening.

4) Hillary Clinton wins reelection.

Duh. I don't think anyone is predicting otherwise.

5) Bill Nelson wins with 57% of the vote against Katherine Harris.

That's probably the minimum he'll get.

6) One of the three states (Maryland, Washington, or New Jersey); A Republican defeats an incumbent Senator.

New Jersey is the only one of those with a realistic chance.

[Rob]

1-Klobuchar will win by a significantly larger margin than Kerry did

Yes; seven or eight points.

2-Casey will get over 52%

I've always predicted that he'll get right around 52 percent, as Romanelli will take a significant number of votes away. He easily defeats Santorum, in any case.

3-Cardin will get over 55%

Probably, but not much more; I could see him polling 56 percent.

4-Tester will win by a wider margin than Schweitzer did in 2004

No; he'll win by two or three points.

5-Byrd will break 70%

He'll probably score in the low-to-mid sixties.

6-Menendez will win by at least 4 points

Definitely. It's New Jersey, after all.

[Jake]

1-Klobuchar will win by a significantly larger margin than Kerry did.
Possible. I could see her running it as high as 55%.

2-Casey will get over 52%
Also possible, as his ceiling is probably around 56-60% if Santorum screws up somehow and Romanelli is not on the ballot. Realistically, a Casey win would probably be 50-46-4.

3-Cardin will get over 55%
I could see this happening easily.

4-Tester will win by a wider margin than Schweitzer did in 2004.
Yeah. If Tester wins it will be by a wider margin, though not much more.

5-Byrd will break 70%.
Possible, not a long shot.

6-Menendez will win by at least 4 points
If he wins, this is likely, as the NJ undecideds tend to break big late, and the winner will be the one who courts those undecided voters.

[Moooooo]

Id say Cardin's ceiling is right around 55-57%.  He's just not that exciting of a candidate.  Im beginning to think Steele will pull around 20-30% of the black vote too.

[Moooooo]

Wait for Kean Sr. to hit the trail and you'll see the immediate bounce.

We heard this when he went to bat for Forrester.  End Result - Corzine in a route.

[Rob]

Id say Cardin's ceiling is right around 55-57%.  He's just not that exciting of a candidate.  Im beginning to think Steele will pull around 20-30% of the black vote too.

Do you think there will be a comparable movement of whites to Cardin?

[Moooooo]

The last poll with crosstabs showed the white vote splitting pretty much 50/50.  Cardin will probably win the white vote by a thin margin in the end.

[Rob]

Ah. Isn't the white vote in Maryland normally 60-40 GOP (or something like that- I'm hardly an expert on state politics)? If so, this is good news.

[Moooooo]

My main concern is with younger blacks.  Steele has a movement going on.  Ive seen quite a few kids in Baltimore City sporting Steele t-shirts.

Not exactly the largest voter block, but still something to worry about.

Also, Steele is from PG County, which has a fairly large amount of middle to upper class blacks.  Some of which will be willing to cross party lines to break a  fellow African American through the glass ceiling.

Someone made an analogy the other day that makes a lot of sense.  Steele is a highly marketable version of Alan Keyes.  He can win, so dont right this one off just yet.

[Moooooo]

It depends on the candidate.  Mikulski usually crushes her opponent across the board.

I believe Ehrlich dominated the white vote.  It may have been somewhere around 55-45 in favor of Bush in 2004.

[Flying Dog]

To save forum space Ill do mine right here.
RI-SEN:Whitehouse gets above 54% of the vote.
NY-GOV:Spitzer will break 75%.
NJ-SEN:Menendez or Kean will win by less than 20,000 votes.
VA-SEN:Webb will break 47%
GA-GOV:Taylor will get about 47-49% of the vote.
AL-GOV:Baxley will get about 49% of the vote and narrowly beat Riley.
OH-SEN:DeWine will get above 56% of the vote.
MO-SEN:McCaskill or Talent will win by less than 15,000 votes.
CO-GOV:Ritter will break 54%
AZ-SEN:Pederson will break 45%
NV-SEN:Carter will break 47%

[DownWithTheLeft]

Wait for Kean Sr. to hit the trail and you'll see the immediate bounce.

We heard this when he went to bat for Forrester.  End Result - Corzine in a route.

I am conservative as it gets and I hated Doug Forrester, that was a real lesser of two evils election.  For once I was glad I couldn't vote!

Kean Sr. will come out much stronger for his son, and people certainly see a more stronger corilation.  Frankly, I don't remember Kean Sr. going w/Forrester, if he did it was very liberal

[DownWithTheLeft]

To save forum space Ill do mine right here.
RI-SEN:Whitehouse gets above 54% of the vote.
NY-GOV:Spitzer will break 75%.
NJ-SEN:Menendez or Kean will win by less than 20,000 votes.
VA-SEN:Webb will break 47%
GA-GOV:Taylor will get about 47-49% of the vote.
AL-GOV:Baxley will get about 49% of the vote and narrowly beat Riley.
OH-SEN:DeWine will get above 56% of the vote.
MO-SEN:McCaskill or Talent will win by less than 15,000 votes.
CO-GOV:Ritter will break 54%
AZ-SEN:Pederson will break 45%
NV-SEN:Carter will break 47%

RI: Higher if Laffey is nominee
NY: Most likely, does better than Hillary
NJ: Definetly that close, people way over estimate Menendez, I like your ability to see a close race
VA: Depends on how the recent quote is played up, probably more like 44%
GA: More like 43%, Purdue is pretty popular
AL: Big nightmare if Riley loses, Baxley isn't that strong
OH: I still think DeWine wins but more like 51 or 52%
MO: Don't know how many votes, but Talent by 2-3%
CO: Ritter should be able to get right about that
AZ: Pederson is looking more like 41 or 42
NV: Carter isn't that popular, Ensign is, and Reid won't put an effort into trying to oust Ensign as they are good friends and work together on NV issues.

[Deano963]

 

2-Casey will get over 52%

I've always predicted that he'll get right around 52 percent, as Romanelli will take a significant number of votes away. He easily defeats Santorum, in any case.

3-Cardin will get over 55%

Romanelli will have a very hard time taking any votes away from Casey, let alone a significant number of them seeing as how it is almost certain that he is not going to make the ballot. Turns out that many of the names on the GOP-funded signature drive were cpmpletely fake and many were listed twice. Mickey Mouse, Robert Redford and Mona Lisa and other fake names were rampant on the list.

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/06222/712425-177.stm

[Frodo]

1. Virginia Sen. George Allen wins re-election with just under 55% of the vote.  With Jim Webb making such a strong showing, winning over 45% of the vote, Allen's presidential prospects are dampened enough that he announces unequivocally sometime in 2007 that he will not run for his party's nomination in 2008. 

2. MD: Ben Cardin wins the primary, narrowly beating Kweisi Mfume with a bare plurality of the vote, i.e. 45-43%, with the remainder going to the other candidates.  In the general election, he wins 55 to 45% over Michael Steele.

3. PA: Bob Casey beats Rick Santorum 54 to 44%.  Two percent go to the Green candidate. 

4. In Alabama, Gov. Bob Riley handily defeats Lucy Baxley 58 to 42%.  Republicans take over all the lower offices except the Agriculture & Industries Commissioner position.

5. In Georgia, Gov. Sonny Purdue smashes Mark Taylor by a nearly three-to-two margin, 59 to 41%.  Republicans take over all the lower offices except Attorney General, as well as the Agriculture and Labor commissioner positions.

6. Mississippi Sen. Trent Lott makes short work of Erik Fleming, triumphing with just short of 70% of the vote.

7. Arkansas: Mike Beebe becomes governor with 53% of the vote.  Democrats take complete control of Arkansas with every lower office going Democratic.

8. Tennessee: Harold Ford, Jr. loses to Bob Corker, the Republican senatorial nominee, 45-55%.

9. Oklahoma Gov. Brad Henry narrowly wins re-election, 52 to 48%, defeating Ernest Istook.

10. RI: Stephen Laffey defeats Sen. Lincoln Chafee 51 to 49% in an upset during the Republican primary.  He goes on to lose to Sheldon Whitehouse 35 to 65%. 

11. CA: Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger narrowly wins re-election over Phil Angeledes 52 to 46%, with the remainder going to Miguel Camejo.

12. OR: If Ben Westlund is indeed confirmed to be running for Governor, Ron Saxton wins 49 to 48%, with 3% going to Westlund.  If he decides not to run, the incumbent Gov. Ted Kulongoski wins re-election 50 to 48%. 

[Boris]

1. Virginia Sen. George Allen wins re-election with just under 55% of the vote.  With Jim Webb making such a strong showing, winning over 45% of the vote, Allen's presidential prospects are dampened enough that he announces unequivocally sometime in 2007 that he will not run for his party's nomination in 2008. 

2. MD: Ben Cardin wins the primary, narrowly beating Kweisi Mfume with a bare plurality of the vote, i.e. 45-43%, with the remainder going to the other candidates.  In the general election, he wins 55 to 45% over Michael Steele.

3. PA: Bob Casey beats Rick Santorum 54 to 44%.  Two percent go to the Green candidate. 

4. In Alabama, Gov. Bob Riley handily defeats Lucy Baxley 58 to 42%.  Republicans take over all the lower offices except the Agriculture & Industries Commissioner position.

5. In Georgia, Gov. Sonny Purdue smashes Mark Taylor by a nearly three-to-two margin, 59 to 41%.  Republicans take over all the lower offices except Attorney General, as well as the Agriculture and Labor commissioner positions.

6. Mississippi Sen. Trent Lott makes short work of Erik Fleming, triumphing with just short of 70% of the vote.

7. Arkansas: Mike Beebe becomes governor with 53% of the vote.  Democrats take complete control of Arkansas with every lower office going Democratic.

8. Tennessee: Harold Ford, Jr. loses to Bob Corker, the Republican senatorial nominee, 45-55%.

9. Oklahoma Gov. Brad Henry narrowly wins re-election, 52 to 48%, defeating Ernest Istook.

10. RI: Stephen Laffey defeats Sen. Lincoln Chafee 51 to 49% in an upset during the Republican primary.  He goes on to lose to Sheldon Whitehouse 35 to 65%. 

11. CA: Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger narrowly wins re-election over Phil Angeledes 52 to 46%, with the remainder going to Miguel Camejo.

12. OR: If Ben Westlund is indeed confirmed to be running for Governor, Ron Saxton wins 49 to 48%, with 3% going to Westlund.  If he decides not to run, the incumbent Gov. Ted Kulongoski wins re-election 50 to 48%. 

These are all plausible except for #9. Henry is wildly popular and will defeat  Istook by a double digit margin.

[MarkWarner08]

1. Virginia Sen. George Allen wins re-election with just under 55% of the vote.  With Jim Webb making such a strong showing, winning over 45% of the vote, Allen's presidential prospects are dampened enough that he announces unequivocally sometime in 2007 that he will not run for his party's nomination in 2008. 

2. MD: Ben Cardin wins the primary, narrowly beating Kweisi Mfume with a bare plurality of the vote, i.e. 45-43%, with the remainder going to the other candidates.  In the general election, he wins 55 to 45% over Michael Steele.

3. PA: Bob Casey beats Rick Santorum 54 to 44%.  Two percent go to the Green candidate. 

4. In Alabama, Gov. Bob Riley handily defeats Lucy Baxley 58 to 42%.  Republicans take over all the lower offices except the Agriculture & Industries Commissioner position.

5. In Georgia, Gov. Sonny Purdue smashes Mark Taylor by a nearly three-to-two margin, 59 to 41%.  Republicans take over all the lower offices except Attorney General, as well as the Agriculture and Labor commissioner positions.

6. Mississippi Sen. Trent Lott makes short work of Erik Fleming, triumphing with just short of 70% of the vote.

7. Arkansas: Mike Beebe becomes governor with 53% of the vote.  Democrats take complete control of Arkansas with every lower office going Democratic.

8. Tennessee: Harold Ford, Jr. loses to Bob Corker, the Republican senatorial nominee, 45-55%.

9. Oklahoma Gov. Brad Henry narrowly wins re-election, 52 to 48%, defeating Ernest Istook.

10. RI: Stephen Laffey defeats Sen. Lincoln Chafee 51 to 49% in an upset during the Republican primary.  He goes on to lose to Sheldon Whitehouse 35 to 65%. 

11. CA: Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger narrowly wins re-election over Phil Angeledes 52 to 46%, with the remainder going to Miguel Camejo.

12. OR: If Ben Westlund is indeed confirmed to be running for Governor, Ron Saxton wins 49 to 48%, with 3% going to Westlund.  If he decides not to run, the incumbent Gov. Ted Kulongoski wins re-election 50 to 48%. 

1. Virginia:  I mostly agree with you. Webb wins 46% of the vote.

2. MD:  Ben Cardin beat Michael Steele 52% to 47%. O’Malley’s Baltimore base saves Cardin, a weak career politician..

3. PA: Bob Casey beats Rick Santorum 51% to 47% with the Green on the ballot.

4.  I agree about  the size of Riley’s win. I don’t know much about statewide offices in Alabama.

5. In Georgia, Gov. Sonny Purdue wins by 57% to 43%.

6. Mississippi Sen: Sorry Harry, I just don’t care about this race. If Michael Moore was on this race, this would’ve been a toss-up.

7. Arkansas: Beebe’s margin sounds right.

8. Tennessee: Harold Ford, Jr. beats ethically challenged and morally bankrupt Republican Bob “flip-flopper and dissembler of the truth” Corker.  I say Ford wins by 49% to48%. This is largely based upon the ’06 climate, Ford’s “big mo,” hopeful thinking and  my pure loathing of Corker.

9. Oklahoma Gov. Brad Henry wins 54% to 46%.

10. RI: Stephen Laffey  loses to Sen. Lincoln Chafee 51% to 49% in an upset during the Republican primary.  Chafee loses to Whitehouse 52% to 48%. 

11. CA: Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger narrowly wins re-election over Phil Angeledes 53% to 45%.

12. OR:  First off, I live and breath Oregon politics. Westlund, a maverick conservative turned left-of-center moderate has left the race.  The Republicans are worried because they know that Mary Starrett is making gains. Starrett is a former newscaster who’s billed herself as the only “conservative” in the race.  The GOP’s decision to nominate a Portland lawyer who has higher negatives and has flip-flopped on issues ranging from Abortion to TABOR will be one they lament on election day. My prediction: Kulongoski 50%- Saxton 45% -Starrett 3%- Green Candidate and Libertarian 2%.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Yall always forget MS...

Seriously face it, my VT longshot is more likely to happen