Rank these districts in chances of flipping to a Republican

[I’m not Stu]

Rank these districts: FL-07, FL-13, OH-13, CA-24 (CA-24 won't flip), PA-08, TX-07, TX-28, TX-32, TX-34, NV-03, and NV-04.

[Meatball Ron]

Are you discussing the districts in their current form, or with redistricting? The latter is obviously really hard to predict; some of these seats like TX-07 and TX-32 will likely be shored up for Dems (to shore up nearby seats for Rs) while others like one (or both) of the FL seats, along with OH-13 and one of the RGV seats in Texas.

So I'll take a stab at rating likelihood of these districts in their current form to flip, though it's not what'll end up happening since many will be adjusted.

PA-08
NV-03
OH-13
NV-04
FL-13
TX-34
FL-07
TX-07
TX-28
TX-32
CA-24

[I’m not Stu]

Are you discussing the districts in their current form, or with redistricting? The latter is obviously really hard to predict; some of these seats like TX-07 and TX-32 will likely be shored up for Dems (to shore up nearby seats for Rs) while others like one (or both) of the FL seats, along with OH-13 and one of the RGV seats in Texas.

So I'll take a stab at rating likelihood of these districts in their current form to flip, though it's not what'll end up happening since many will be adjusted.

PA-08
NV-03
OH-13
NV-04
FL-13
TX-34
FL-07
TX-07
TX-28
TX-32
CA-24

With the new boundaries. What might happen?

[Meatball Ron]

Are you discussing the districts in their current form, or with redistricting? The latter is obviously really hard to predict; some of these seats like TX-07 and TX-32 will likely be shored up for Dems (to shore up nearby seats for Rs) while others like one (or both) of the FL seats, along with OH-13 and one of the RGV seats in Texas.

So I'll take a stab at rating likelihood of these districts in their current form to flip, though it's not what'll end up happening since many will be adjusted.

PA-08
NV-03
OH-13
NV-04
FL-13
TX-34
FL-07
TX-07
TX-28
TX-32
CA-24

With the new boundaries. What might happen?

I have no idea. I think TX-07, TX-32, NV-03, NV-04 will be shored up for Dems. PA-08 will probably become more R-leaning (to take in part of whatever central state population-losing red district is being cracked up). I assume OH-13 will be dismantled entirely. One of the Florida districts I assume will become more Republican - maybe both? Less comfortable with Florida geography versus the other states. One of the Texas RGV districts is likely to become fully GOP.

[I’m not Stu]

Are you discussing the districts in their current form, or with redistricting? The latter is obviously really hard to predict; some of these seats like TX-07 and TX-32 will likely be shored up for Dems (to shore up nearby seats for Rs) while others like one (or both) of the FL seats, along with OH-13 and one of the RGV seats in Texas.

So I'll take a stab at rating likelihood of these districts in their current form to flip, though it's not what'll end up happening since many will be adjusted.

PA-08
NV-03
OH-13
NV-04
FL-13
TX-34
FL-07
TX-07
TX-28
TX-32
CA-24

With the new boundaries. What might happen?

I have no idea. I think TX-07, TX-32, NV-03, NV-04 will be shored up for Dems. PA-08 will probably become more R-leaning (to take in part of whatever central state population-losing red district is being cracked up). I assume OH-13 will be dismantled entirely. One of the Florida districts I assume will become more Republican - maybe both? Less comfortable with Florida geography versus the other states. One of the Texas RGV districts is likely to become fully GOP.

Isn’t that illegal?

[Meatball Ron]

Are you discussing the districts in their current form, or with redistricting? The latter is obviously really hard to predict; some of these seats like TX-07 and TX-32 will likely be shored up for Dems (to shore up nearby seats for Rs) while others like one (or both) of the FL seats, along with OH-13 and one of the RGV seats in Texas.

So I'll take a stab at rating likelihood of these districts in their current form to flip, though it's not what'll end up happening since many will be adjusted.

PA-08
NV-03
OH-13
NV-04
FL-13
TX-34
FL-07
TX-07
TX-28
TX-32
CA-24

With the new boundaries. What might happen?

I have no idea. I think TX-07, TX-32, NV-03, NV-04 will be shored up for Dems. PA-08 will probably become more R-leaning (to take in part of whatever central state population-losing red district is being cracked up). I assume OH-13 will be dismantled entirely. One of the Florida districts I assume will become more Republican - maybe both? Less comfortable with Florida geography versus the other states. One of the Texas RGV districts is likely to become fully GOP.

Isn’t that illegal?

Don't think all three of those districts are VRA

[I’m not Stu]

Are you discussing the districts in their current form, or with redistricting? The latter is obviously really hard to predict; some of these seats like TX-07 and TX-32 will likely be shored up for Dems (to shore up nearby seats for Rs) while others like one (or both) of the FL seats, along with OH-13 and one of the RGV seats in Texas.

So I'll take a stab at rating likelihood of these districts in their current form to flip, though it's not what'll end up happening since many will be adjusted.

PA-08
NV-03
OH-13
NV-04
FL-13
TX-34
FL-07
TX-07
TX-28
TX-32
CA-24

With the new boundaries. What might happen?

I have no idea. I think TX-07, TX-32, NV-03, NV-04 will be shored up for Dems. PA-08 will probably become more R-leaning (to take in part of whatever central state population-losing red district is being cracked up). I assume OH-13 will be dismantled entirely. One of the Florida districts I assume will become more Republican - maybe both? Less comfortable with Florida geography versus the other states. One of the Texas RGV districts is likely to become fully GOP.

Isn’t that illegal?

Don't think all three of those districts are VRA

Which one isn’t?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Are you discussing the districts in their current form, or with redistricting? The latter is obviously really hard to predict; some of these seats like TX-07 and TX-32 will likely be shored up for Dems (to shore up nearby seats for Rs) while others like one (or both) of the FL seats, along with OH-13 and one of the RGV seats in Texas.

So I'll take a stab at rating likelihood of these districts in their current form to flip, though it's not what'll end up happening since many will be adjusted.

PA-08
NV-03
OH-13
NV-04
FL-13
TX-34
FL-07
TX-07
TX-28
TX-32
CA-24

With the new boundaries. What might happen?

I have no idea. I think TX-07, TX-32, NV-03, NV-04 will be shored up for Dems. PA-08 will probably become more R-leaning (to take in part of whatever central state population-losing red district is being cracked up). I assume OH-13 will be dismantled entirely. One of the Florida districts I assume will become more Republican - maybe both? Less comfortable with Florida geography versus the other states. One of the Texas RGV districts is likely to become fully GOP.

Isn’t that illegal?

It is.

[I’m not Stu]

Are you discussing the districts in their current form, or with redistricting? The latter is obviously really hard to predict; some of these seats like TX-07 and TX-32 will likely be shored up for Dems (to shore up nearby seats for Rs) while others like one (or both) of the FL seats, along with OH-13 and one of the RGV seats in Texas.

So I'll take a stab at rating likelihood of these districts in their current form to flip, though it's not what'll end up happening since many will be adjusted.

PA-08
NV-03
OH-13
NV-04
FL-13
TX-34
FL-07
TX-07
TX-28
TX-32
CA-24

With the new boundaries. What might happen?

I have no idea. I think TX-07, TX-32, NV-03, NV-04 will be shored up for Dems. PA-08 will probably become more R-leaning (to take in part of whatever central state population-losing red district is being cracked up). I assume OH-13 will be dismantled entirely. One of the Florida districts I assume will become more Republican - maybe both? Less comfortable with Florida geography versus the other states. One of the Texas RGV districts is likely to become fully GOP.

Isn’t that illegal?

It is.

What is the most aggressive the TXGOP can draw while still being legal?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Are you discussing the districts in their current form, or with redistricting? The latter is obviously really hard to predict; some of these seats like TX-07 and TX-32 will likely be shored up for Dems (to shore up nearby seats for Rs) while others like one (or both) of the FL seats, along with OH-13 and one of the RGV seats in Texas.

So I'll take a stab at rating likelihood of these districts in their current form to flip, though it's not what'll end up happening since many will be adjusted.

PA-08
NV-03
OH-13
NV-04
FL-13
TX-34
FL-07
TX-07
TX-28
TX-32
CA-24

With the new boundaries. What might happen?

I have no idea. I think TX-07, TX-32, NV-03, NV-04 will be shored up for Dems. PA-08 will probably become more R-leaning (to take in part of whatever central state population-losing red district is being cracked up). I assume OH-13 will be dismantled entirely. One of the Florida districts I assume will become more Republican - maybe both? Less comfortable with Florida geography versus the other states. One of the Texas RGV districts is likely to become fully GOP.

Isn’t that illegal?

It is.

What is the most aggressive the TXGOP can draw while still being legal?

A fajita running particularly far to the north with a roughly EVEN or so 2012/2016 PVI.

[I’m not Stu]

What happens to MN-02?

[Meatball Ron]

Are you discussing the districts in their current form, or with redistricting? The latter is obviously really hard to predict; some of these seats like TX-07 and TX-32 will likely be shored up for Dems (to shore up nearby seats for Rs) while others like one (or both) of the FL seats, along with OH-13 and one of the RGV seats in Texas.

So I'll take a stab at rating likelihood of these districts in their current form to flip, though it's not what'll end up happening since many will be adjusted.

PA-08
NV-03
OH-13
NV-04
FL-13
TX-34
FL-07
TX-07
TX-28
TX-32
CA-24

With the new boundaries. What might happen?

I have no idea. I think TX-07, TX-32, NV-03, NV-04 will be shored up for Dems. PA-08 will probably become more R-leaning (to take in part of whatever central state population-losing red district is being cracked up). I assume OH-13 will be dismantled entirely. One of the Florida districts I assume will become more Republican - maybe both? Less comfortable with Florida geography versus the other states. One of the Texas RGV districts is likely to become fully GOP.

Isn’t that illegal?

It is.

What is the most aggressive the TXGOP can draw while still being legal?

A fajita running particularly far to the north with a roughly EVEN or so 2012/2016 PVI.

I feel like Wasserman is the leading expert here so I doubt his map has any illegalities. He creates a Safe R TX-15.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1339243248578080769

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Are you discussing the districts in their current form, or with redistricting? The latter is obviously really hard to predict; some of these seats like TX-07 and TX-32 will likely be shored up for Dems (to shore up nearby seats for Rs) while others like one (or both) of the FL seats, along with OH-13 and one of the RGV seats in Texas.

So I'll take a stab at rating likelihood of these districts in their current form to flip, though it's not what'll end up happening since many will be adjusted.

PA-08
NV-03
OH-13
NV-04
FL-13
TX-34
FL-07
TX-07
TX-28
TX-32
CA-24

With the new boundaries. What might happen?

I have no idea. I think TX-07, TX-32, NV-03, NV-04 will be shored up for Dems. PA-08 will probably become more R-leaning (to take in part of whatever central state population-losing red district is being cracked up). I assume OH-13 will be dismantled entirely. One of the Florida districts I assume will become more Republican - maybe both? Less comfortable with Florida geography versus the other states. One of the Texas RGV districts is likely to become fully GOP.

Isn’t that illegal?

It is.

What is the most aggressive the TXGOP can draw while still being legal?

A fajita running particularly far to the north with a roughly EVEN or so 2012/2016 PVI.

I feel like Wasserman is the leading expert here so I doubt his map has any illegalities. He creates a Safe R TX-15.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1339243248578080769

I disagree with his opinion. Moreover, TX-15 in that form is no fajita, and there is still no legal evidence that anything but fajitas can be drawn in South Texas.

[I’m not Stu]

Would the GOP TX-15 still be majority HCVAP?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Would the GOP TX-15 still be majority HCVAP?

Majority HCVAP is extremely easy of a threshold to reach. Reliably electing the Latino candidate of choice in the general election is more important. LULAC would settle for nothing less.

[I’m not Stu]

Will Texas just draw a new Austin vote sink and concede TX-07 and TX-32 to shore up neighboring districts, or will the TXGOP baconmander Houston and Dallas?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Will Texas just draw a new Austin vote sink and concede TX-07 and TX-32 to shore up neighboring districts, or will the TXGOP baconmander Houston and Dallas?

If they are being very bold, the former; if they are playing it relatively safe, the latter.

[I’m not Stu]

Will Texas just draw a new Austin vote sink and concede TX-07 and TX-32 to shore up neighboring districts, or will the TXGOP baconmander Houston and Dallas?

If they are being very bold, the former; if they are playing it relatively safe, the latter.

Do you think they will play it safe or be bold?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Will Texas just draw a new Austin vote sink and concede TX-07 and TX-32 to shore up neighboring districts, or will the TXGOP baconmander Houston and Dallas?

If they are being very bold, the former; if they are playing it relatively safe, the latter.

Do you think they will play it safe or be bold?

50/50 right now between those two extremes. They might also take some middle path. Only time will tell exactly what they do.

[I’m not Stu]

What about MN-02?

[Roll Roons]

Will Texas just draw a new Austin vote sink and concede TX-07 and TX-32 to shore up neighboring districts, or will the TXGOP baconmander Houston and Dallas?

If they are being very bold, the former; if they are playing it relatively safe, the latter.

Do you think they will play it safe or be bold?

50/50 right now between those two extremes. They might also take some middle path. Only time will tell exactly what they do.

I feel like they'll probably want to draw a GOP seat in Houston for Wesley Hunt. Not sure if that means creating a brand new one or making the current TX-07 more R.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Will Texas just draw a new Austin vote sink and concede TX-07 and TX-32 to shore up neighboring districts, or will the TXGOP baconmander Houston and Dallas?

If they are being very bold, the former; if they are playing it relatively safe, the latter.

Do you think they will play it safe or be bold?

50/50 right now between those two extremes. They might also take some middle path. Only time will tell exactly what they do.

I feel like they'll probably want to draw a GOP seat in Houston for Wesley Hunt. Not sure if that means creating a brand new one or making the current TX-07 more R.

Most likely we are looking at one new seat in Austin-San Antonio, Houston metro, and DFW metro each. They might give that new seat in metro Houston to Fletcher while pushing TX-07 west, both helping cover for any legal issues that might stem from not creating any new minority seats, and making TX-07 more R for Wesley Hunt or whoever GOPer gets nominated in the new TX-07.

[I’m not Stu]

There is speculation that the district where Fletcher runs (TX-07 or the new Houston seat) will be majority-Hispanic to avoid violating the VRA.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Are you discussing the districts in their current form, or with redistricting? The latter is obviously really hard to predict; some of these seats like TX-07 and TX-32 will likely be shored up for Dems (to shore up nearby seats for Rs) while others like one (or both) of the FL seats, along with OH-13 and one of the RGV seats in Texas.

So I'll take a stab at rating likelihood of these districts in their current form to flip, though it's not what'll end up happening since many will be adjusted.

PA-08
NV-03
OH-13
NV-04
FL-13
TX-34
FL-07
TX-07
TX-28
TX-32
CA-24

With the new boundaries. What might happen?

I have no idea. I think TX-07, TX-32, NV-03, NV-04 will be shored up for Dems. PA-08 will probably become more R-leaning (to take in part of whatever central state population-losing red district is being cracked up). I assume OH-13 will be dismantled entirely. One of the Florida districts I assume will become more Republican - maybe both? Less comfortable with Florida geography versus the other states. One of the Texas RGV districts is likely to become fully GOP.

Isn’t that illegal?

No, it's easy to make an 80% Hispanic district vote for Trump.