How Will Each State Trend in 15 Years?

[Real Texan Politics]

So I found this interesting prediction video from a smaller political predictions youtuber who predicted how each state would trend in the next 15 years.

And because maps in the video are almost always different than as shown in the thumbnails (and because some of you will probably just wanna skip to the map even though he explains his reasonings in the video), here's his map:

(I have DC as a tossup since he didn't include it in the map, but I'm sure we can all guess how it's always gonna vote in every single election)

If anyone wants to share their own opinions on this + maps, feel free to do so.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

So I found this interesting prediction video from a smaller political predictions youtuber who predicted how each state would trend in the next 15 years.

And because maps in the video are almost always different than as shown in the thumbnails (and because some of you will probably just wanna skip to the map even though he explains his reasonings in the video), here's his map:


(I have DC as a tossup since he didn't include it in the map, but I'm sure we can all guess how it's always gonna vote in every single election)

If anyone wants to share their own opinions on this + maps, feel free to do so.

Now that's a channel name, wow. I don't think highly enough of myself to really say how states outside of the obvious Big Blue Boys will trend in 15 years.

[Kuumo]

Not a bad prediction, but he kind of ignored the education divide and just focused on the urban-suburban-rural divide. He also rushed and colored almost all of the Western states blue at the end without explaining much. I predict the following map, which is similar but with continued Republican gains among rural and non-college Hispanic voters in the Southwest making New Mexico, Nevada, and California trend Republican and growth in the Nashville and Oklahoma City areas making Tennessee and Oklahoma trend Democratic, as well as a few small changes for states he thought wouldn't trend much either way.

[If my soul was made of stone]

My biggest disagreement with the consensus that I see here is on fossil fuel states trending Democratic. The local Democratic kinks seemed to have finally been nationalized out of Montana last year, with the presidential, senatorial, and gubernatorial votes almost in lockstep, and while we still have to see whether that persists, it seems to be converging with its neighbors. Movement in Alaska is promising, but the GOP still has a firewall of very conservative suburbs (Kenai, Mat-Su, most of greater Anchorage) and oil workers that'll be quite tough to crack convincingly despite their small raw vote margins. Movement in urban Oklahoma is promising, but still lags behind its more diversified Plains neighbors, and the rural areas seem to have no bottom. Educational polarization in states such as these or the Dakotas is blunted by the amount of professionals in the fossil fuel industry, who'll keep voting in their superiors' interest until their line of work collapses, and perhaps still thereafter as has been seen in coal country.

[Chips]

Who knows for sure?

[Non Swing Voter]

That map is terrible for Republicans long term because there are only a few D states trending their way that are flippable (WI, MI, PA, etc.) whereas that map indicates massive electoral flips to Democrats (TX, GA, AZ, NC).  Republicans consistently losing the popular vote by wide margins is about to finally catch up with them.

[EastwoodS]

That map is terrible for Republicans long term because there are only a few D states trending their way that are flippable (WI, MI, PA, etc.) whereas that map indicates massive electoral flips to Democrats (TX, GA, AZ, NC).  Republicans consistently losing the popular vote by wide margins is about to finally catch up with them.

If you think America is just going to stay in the Obama/ Clinton realignment forever, sure..

[Person Man]

That map is terrible for Republicans long term because there are only a few D states trending their way that are flippable (WI, MI, PA, etc.) whereas that map indicates massive electoral flips to Democrats (TX, GA, AZ, NC).  Republicans consistently losing the popular vote by wide margins is about to finally catch up with them.

If you think America is just going to stay in the Obama/ Clinton realignment forever, sure..

I asked in another thread about the possibility of a departure from Reagan-Obama. Either it’s that difficult to imagine or it’s really that much of a silly question.