If Bloomberg had been willing to enter the race earlier, and run in some of the 1st 4 states....
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May 07, 2021, 04:34:34 PM

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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: Likely Voter, TJ in Oregon, YE, ON Progressive)
  If Bloomberg had been willing to enter the race earlier, and run in some of the 1st 4 states....
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Author Topic: If Bloomberg had been willing to enter the race earlier, and run in some of the 1st 4 states....  (Read 795 times)
Mr. Morden
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« on: April 03, 2021, 12:59:05 PM »

Bloomberg didn't enter the race until late November 2019, after the NH primary filing deadline had passed, so he wasn't on the ballot there.  And he also opted not to run in any of IA, NV, or SC either.

With 20/20 hindsight, if your goal was to maximize Bloomberg's delegate haul, should he have entered the race earlier, and should he have run in at least some subset of the first four states?  And if so, which ones?  Or would he have inevitably lost any of the first 4 states anyway, and would have suffered more from the negative momentum from losses there than he would have gained from showing up there at all?
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #1 on: April 03, 2021, 03:48:56 PM »

Yes, for his strategy to work, he needed to compete in NV to become the establishment alternative to Bernie when it still looked like Biden was flailing. 
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cinyc
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« Reply #2 on: April 03, 2021, 09:18:46 PM »

No. Money can't buy you love. And no former NYC mayor has won pretty much anything since the 1920s.

But Bloomberg will always have American Samoa. Always.
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Guy
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« Reply #3 on: April 04, 2021, 10:50:43 PM »

Then he could have been embarrassed in 4 more primaries than he already was!
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Samof94
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« Reply #4 on: April 09, 2021, 06:26:46 AM »

No. Money can't buy you love. And no former NYC mayor has won pretty much anything since the 1920s.

But Bloomberg will always have American Samoa. Always.
Tulsi did well too
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cinyc
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« Reply #5 on: April 10, 2021, 11:39:18 AM »

No. Money can't buy you love. And no former NYC mayor has won pretty much anything since the 1920s.

But Bloomberg will always have American Samoa. Always.
Tulsi did well too

Yes. And Tulsi didn't have to spend more money nationwide than the territory's GDP to get delegates, either. She did well because she was born there, IIRC.
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Samof94
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« Reply #6 on: April 11, 2021, 06:05:19 AM »

No. Money can't buy you love. And no former NYC mayor has won pretty much anything since the 1920s.

But Bloomberg will always have American Samoa. Always.
Tulsi did well too

Yes. And Tulsi didn't have to spend more money nationwide than the territory's GDP to get delegates, either. She did well because she was born there, IIRC.
True. Her being a TERF is political suicide though.
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Ishan
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« Reply #7 on: April 11, 2021, 08:54:26 AM »

No. Money can't buy you love. And no former NYC mayor has won pretty much anything since the 1920s.

But Bloomberg will always have American Samoa. Always.
Tulsi did well too

Yes. And Tulsi didn't have to spend more money nationwide than the territory's GDP to get delegates, either. She did well because she was born there, IIRC.
True. Her being a TERF is political suicide though.
Gabbard being a TERF had little to no impact in American Samoa.
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KoopaDaQuick
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« Reply #8 on: April 11, 2021, 10:43:56 AM »

No. Money can't buy you love. And no former NYC mayor has won pretty much anything since the 1920s.

But Bloomberg will always have American Samoa. Always.

Tulsi did well too

Yes. And Tulsi didn't have to spend more money nationwide than the territory's GDP to get delegates, either. She did well because she was born there, IIRC.

True. Her being a TERF is political suicide though.

But what about Trans Turtles for Tulsi?
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Samof94
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« Reply #9 on: April 12, 2021, 06:03:25 AM »

No. Money can't buy you love. And no former NYC mayor has won pretty much anything since the 1920s.

But Bloomberg will always have American Samoa. Always.
Tulsi did well too

Yes. And Tulsi didn't have to spend more money nationwide than the territory's GDP to get delegates, either. She did well because she was born there, IIRC.
True. Her being a TERF is political suicide though.
Gabbard being a TERF had little to no impact in American Samoa.
It hurts her future career though.
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KhanOfKhans
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« Reply #10 on: April 13, 2021, 02:24:07 PM »

No. Money can't buy you love. And no former NYC mayor has won pretty much anything since the 1920s.

But Bloomberg will always have American Samoa. Always.
Tulsi did well too

Yes. And Tulsi didn't have to spend more money nationwide than the territory's GDP to get delegates, either. She did well because she was born there, IIRC.
True. Her being a TERF is political suicide though.
Gabbard being a TERF had little to no impact in American Samoa.
It hurts her future career though.

Her only future career is appearing on right-wing talk shows complaining about trans people. She has absolutely no future in Democratic politics, nor should she.
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Samof94
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« Reply #11 on: April 14, 2021, 06:34:28 AM »

No. Money can't buy you love. And no former NYC mayor has won pretty much anything since the 1920s.

But Bloomberg will always have American Samoa. Always.
Tulsi did well too

Yes. And Tulsi didn't have to spend more money nationwide than the territory's GDP to get delegates, either. She did well because she was born there, IIRC.
True. Her being a TERF is political suicide though.
Gabbard being a TERF had little to no impact in American Samoa.
It hurts her future career though.

Her only future career is appearing on right-wing talk shows complaining about trans people. She has absolutely no future in Democratic politics, nor should she.
Of course. Nobody wants to be around her.
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Motorcity
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« Reply #12 on: April 22, 2021, 11:05:40 AM »

If anything, Bloomberg entering the big four helps Bernie because he eats more support from Booty, Biden, and KLOB
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Lincoln Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #13 on: April 22, 2021, 11:13:36 PM »

Bernie goes 3-0 comfortably in the first states in this scenario. This probably means Buttigieg withdraws before South Carolina, which in theory helps Biden...but with Bloomberg campaigning in Nevada..Biden could end up slipping to third in Nevada. With that, Clyburn may just stay neutral. Biden probably still wins SC because it's too AA for him not to....but it would be a much reduced win from RL. Steyer probably snags a couple delegates, meaning he sticks around for Super Tuesday. Klobuchar stays in too, and Bloomberg with his large war chest probably does as well.

So we'd get a pretty large field heading into Super Tuesday

Biden
Sanders
Warren
Bloomberg
Klobuchar
Steyer

And with Biden far weaker than RL, we get a much more split result on Super Tuesday. Could go any number of ways from there. Fairly Likely it ends in a full fledged contested convention, with Bernie in the lead but notably short of a majority.
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dw93
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« Reply #14 on: April 25, 2021, 12:01:06 PM »

Bernie goes 3-0 comfortably in the first states in this scenario. This probably means Buttigieg withdraws before South Carolina, which in theory helps Biden...but with Bloomberg campaigning in Nevada..Biden could end up slipping to third in Nevada. With that, Clyburn may just stay neutral. Biden probably still wins SC because it's too AA for him not to....but it would be a much reduced win from RL. Steyer probably snags a couple delegates, meaning he sticks around for Super Tuesday. Klobuchar stays in too, and Bloomberg with his large war chest probably does as well.

So we'd get a pretty large field heading into Super Tuesday

Biden
Sanders
Warren
Bloomberg
Klobuchar
Steyer

And with Biden far weaker than RL, we get a much more split result on Super Tuesday. Could go any number of ways from there. Fairly Likely it ends in a full fledged contested convention, with Bernie in the lead but notably short of a majority.

I think Trump wins the general if this happens.
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