If Bloomberg had been willing to enter the race earlier, and run in some of the 1st 4 states....
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 07:19:49 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE)
  If Bloomberg had been willing to enter the race earlier, and run in some of the 1st 4 states....
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: If Bloomberg had been willing to enter the race earlier, and run in some of the 1st 4 states....  (Read 992 times)
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,073
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: April 03, 2021, 12:59:05 PM »

Bloomberg didn't enter the race until late November 2019, after the NH primary filing deadline had passed, so he wasn't on the ballot there.  And he also opted not to run in any of IA, NV, or SC either.

With 20/20 hindsight, if your goal was to maximize Bloomberg's delegate haul, should he have entered the race earlier, and should he have run in at least some subset of the first four states?  And if so, which ones?  Or would he have inevitably lost any of the first 4 states anyway, and would have suffered more from the negative momentum from losses there than he would have gained from showing up there at all?
Logged
Skill and Chance
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,522
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: April 03, 2021, 03:48:56 PM »

Yes, for his strategy to work, he needed to compete in NV to become the establishment alternative to Bernie when it still looked like Biden was flailing. 
Logged
cinyc
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,721


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: April 03, 2021, 09:18:46 PM »

No. Money can't buy you love. And no former NYC mayor has won pretty much anything since the 1920s.

But Bloomberg will always have American Samoa. Always.
Logged
E-Dawg 🇺🇦🇦🇲
Guy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 545
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: April 04, 2021, 10:50:43 PM »

Then he could have been embarrassed in 4 more primaries than he already was!
Logged
Samof94
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,312
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: April 09, 2021, 06:26:46 AM »

No. Money can't buy you love. And no former NYC mayor has won pretty much anything since the 1920s.

But Bloomberg will always have American Samoa. Always.
Tulsi did well too
Logged
cinyc
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,721


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: April 10, 2021, 11:39:18 AM »

No. Money can't buy you love. And no former NYC mayor has won pretty much anything since the 1920s.

But Bloomberg will always have American Samoa. Always.
Tulsi did well too

Yes. And Tulsi didn't have to spend more money nationwide than the territory's GDP to get delegates, either. She did well because she was born there, IIRC.
Logged
Samof94
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,312
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: April 11, 2021, 06:05:19 AM »

No. Money can't buy you love. And no former NYC mayor has won pretty much anything since the 1920s.

But Bloomberg will always have American Samoa. Always.
Tulsi did well too

Yes. And Tulsi didn't have to spend more money nationwide than the territory's GDP to get delegates, either. She did well because she was born there, IIRC.
True. Her being a TERF is political suicide though.
Logged
Continential
The Op
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,543
Political Matrix
E: 1.10, S: -5.30

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: April 11, 2021, 08:54:26 AM »

No. Money can't buy you love. And no former NYC mayor has won pretty much anything since the 1920s.

But Bloomberg will always have American Samoa. Always.
Tulsi did well too

Yes. And Tulsi didn't have to spend more money nationwide than the territory's GDP to get delegates, either. She did well because she was born there, IIRC.
True. Her being a TERF is political suicide though.
Gabbard being a TERF had little to no impact in American Samoa.
Logged
KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸
KoopaDaQuick
Moderators
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,299
Anguilla


Political Matrix
E: -8.50, S: -5.74


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: April 11, 2021, 10:43:56 AM »

No. Money can't buy you love. And no former NYC mayor has won pretty much anything since the 1920s.

But Bloomberg will always have American Samoa. Always.

Tulsi did well too

Yes. And Tulsi didn't have to spend more money nationwide than the territory's GDP to get delegates, either. She did well because she was born there, IIRC.

True. Her being a TERF is political suicide though.

But what about Trans Turtles for Tulsi?
Logged
Samof94
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,312
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: April 12, 2021, 06:03:25 AM »

No. Money can't buy you love. And no former NYC mayor has won pretty much anything since the 1920s.

But Bloomberg will always have American Samoa. Always.
Tulsi did well too

Yes. And Tulsi didn't have to spend more money nationwide than the territory's GDP to get delegates, either. She did well because she was born there, IIRC.
True. Her being a TERF is political suicide though.
Gabbard being a TERF had little to no impact in American Samoa.
It hurts her future career though.
Logged
Not Me, Us
KhanOfKhans
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,253
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: April 13, 2021, 02:24:07 PM »

No. Money can't buy you love. And no former NYC mayor has won pretty much anything since the 1920s.

But Bloomberg will always have American Samoa. Always.
Tulsi did well too

Yes. And Tulsi didn't have to spend more money nationwide than the territory's GDP to get delegates, either. She did well because she was born there, IIRC.
True. Her being a TERF is political suicide though.
Gabbard being a TERF had little to no impact in American Samoa.
It hurts her future career though.

Her only future career is appearing on right-wing talk shows complaining about trans people. She has absolutely no future in Democratic politics, nor should she.
Logged
Samof94
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,312
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: April 14, 2021, 06:34:28 AM »

No. Money can't buy you love. And no former NYC mayor has won pretty much anything since the 1920s.

But Bloomberg will always have American Samoa. Always.
Tulsi did well too

Yes. And Tulsi didn't have to spend more money nationwide than the territory's GDP to get delegates, either. She did well because she was born there, IIRC.
True. Her being a TERF is political suicide though.
Gabbard being a TERF had little to no impact in American Samoa.
It hurts her future career though.

Her only future career is appearing on right-wing talk shows complaining about trans people. She has absolutely no future in Democratic politics, nor should she.
Of course. Nobody wants to be around her.
Logged
Motorcity
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,473


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: April 22, 2021, 11:05:40 AM »

If anything, Bloomberg entering the big four helps Bernie because he eats more support from Booty, Biden, and KLOB
Logged
Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,578
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: April 22, 2021, 11:13:36 PM »

Bernie goes 3-0 comfortably in the first states in this scenario. This probably means Buttigieg withdraws before South Carolina, which in theory helps Biden...but with Bloomberg campaigning in Nevada..Biden could end up slipping to third in Nevada. With that, Clyburn may just stay neutral. Biden probably still wins SC because it's too AA for him not to....but it would be a much reduced win from RL. Steyer probably snags a couple delegates, meaning he sticks around for Super Tuesday. Klobuchar stays in too, and Bloomberg with his large war chest probably does as well.

So we'd get a pretty large field heading into Super Tuesday

Biden
Sanders
Warren
Bloomberg
Klobuchar
Steyer

And with Biden far weaker than RL, we get a much more split result on Super Tuesday. Could go any number of ways from there. Fairly Likely it ends in a full fledged contested convention, with Bernie in the lead but notably short of a majority.
Logged
dw93
DWL
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,870
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: April 25, 2021, 12:01:06 PM »

Bernie goes 3-0 comfortably in the first states in this scenario. This probably means Buttigieg withdraws before South Carolina, which in theory helps Biden...but with Bloomberg campaigning in Nevada..Biden could end up slipping to third in Nevada. With that, Clyburn may just stay neutral. Biden probably still wins SC because it's too AA for him not to....but it would be a much reduced win from RL. Steyer probably snags a couple delegates, meaning he sticks around for Super Tuesday. Klobuchar stays in too, and Bloomberg with his large war chest probably does as well.

So we'd get a pretty large field heading into Super Tuesday

Biden
Sanders
Warren
Bloomberg
Klobuchar
Steyer

And with Biden far weaker than RL, we get a much more split result on Super Tuesday. Could go any number of ways from there. Fairly Likely it ends in a full fledged contested convention, with Bernie in the lead but notably short of a majority.

I think Trump wins the general if this happens.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.045 seconds with 13 queries.