Would Richard Riordan have won reelection as Gov. of Cali in 2006?

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_California_gubernatorial_election

What do you think? Honestly, I think Riordan, the moderate former Republican mayor of Los Angeles and the most recent Republican to have won that post, would have beat Davis by a lot, and won reelection by a large margin in 2006.

Had Davis not spent millions attacking him and helping the Conservative Bill Simon, and had the Republican Party not shot themselves in the foot in 2002, I think Riordan would've been remembered as a great governor, even more than Arnie.

[Roll Roons]

Yes. Arnold won reelection by quite a lot despite the national wave, and there's no reason to think Riordan would have been less popular than him.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Riordan would have very likely won another term. In general, in 2006 popular GOP governors were not often voted out anyway, and even some unpopular ones survived. Rell, Perry, Lingle, all survived.
The Dem wave was strongest in House and Senate.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Perhaps would he have won in 2002 in the first place is the even more interesting question.

Thoughts?

I think he could've jumpstarted the Republican resurgence during that era even earlier.

[Sir Mohamed]

Yup, he would have by a similar margin than Arnold. Gov races are less partisan and certainly were in 2006, as the real election proved. Doubt Riardan would have been a failed governor with low approvals. That may have changed in his 2nd term, as was the case with Schwarzenegger.

[RRusso1982]

Riordan would have very likely won another term. In general, in 2006 popular GOP governors were not often voted out anyway, and even some unpopular ones survived. Rell, Perry, Lingle, all survived.
The Dem wave was strongest in House and Senate.

Bob Ehrlich

[Roll Roons]

Riordan would have very likely won another term. In general, in 2006 popular GOP governors were not often voted out anyway, and even some unpopular ones survived. Rell, Perry, Lingle, all survived.
The Dem wave was strongest in House and Senate.

Rell was extremely popular. She was the Charlie Baker of the 2000s.

[Roll Roons]

Riordan would have very likely won another term. In general, in 2006 popular GOP governors were not often voted out anyway, and even some unpopular ones survived. Rell, Perry, Lingle, all survived.
The Dem wave was strongest in House and Senate.

Bob Ehrlich

He was the only incumbent who lost. All of the other gubernatorial gains that year came from open seats.

I still don't completely understand why he lost despite being relatively popular. It was not partisanship alone, because Trump was way more unpopular in Maryland than Bush and Hogan won reelection by double digits.

[Suburbia]

Yes

[Sestak]

Riordan would have very likely won another term. In general, in 2006 popular GOP governors were not often voted out anyway, and even some unpopular ones survived. Rell, Perry, Lingle, all survived.
The Dem wave was strongest in House and Senate.

Bob Ehrlich

He was the only incumbent who lost. All of the other gubernatorial gains that year came from open seats.

I still don't completely understand why he lost despite being relatively popular. It was not partisanship alone, because Trump was way more unpopular in Maryland than Bush and Hogan won reelection by double digits.

Hogan was also not facing a fairly popular and well-known Mayor of Baltimore.

[NewYorkExpress]

I'm not as sure. Riordan didn't have the advantages that Schwarzenegger had in his reelection bid (being a celebrity, being able to easily outraise and outfund his opponent).

The California Democratic Party also would have tried much harder to defeat Riordan than they did Schwarzenegger, probably recruiting a stronger potential candidate than Phil Angelides (who was good in his own right, but really couldn't stand up to Schwarzeneggar). Maybe Jerry Brown mounts his Gubernatorial bid here instead of running for Attorney General (he'd probably beat Riordan head-to-head).

[Fancyarcher]

I'm not as sure. Riordan didn't have the advantages that Schwarzenegger had in his reelection bid (being a celebrity, being able to easily outraise and outfund his opponent).

The California Democratic Party also would have tried much harder to defeat Riordan than they did Schwarzenegger, probably recruiting a stronger potential candidate than Phil Angelides (who was good in his own right, but really couldn't stand up to Schwarzeneggar). Maybe Jerry Brown mounts his Gubernatorial bid here instead of running for Attorney General (he'd probably beat Riordan head-to-head).

I also doubt that if he somehow did win reelection in an alternative 2006, that he would have saved the Republican party in the state. Probably more then anything, he would have been a one-off from a much less polarized time down ballot, akinned to Brad Henry in Oklahoma, or Dave Freudenthal in Wyoming.

[Suburbia]

I'm not as sure. Riordan didn't have the advantages that Schwarzenegger had in his reelection bid (being a celebrity, being able to easily outraise and outfund his opponent).

The California Democratic Party also would have tried much harder to defeat Riordan than they did Schwarzenegger, probably recruiting a stronger potential candidate than Phil Angelides (who was good in his own right, but really couldn't stand up to Schwarzeneggar). Maybe Jerry Brown mounts his Gubernatorial bid here instead of running for Attorney General (he'd probably beat Riordan head-to-head).

Riordan did have an advantage that other California Republicans did not have: he can win a city, especially Los Angeles. He probably wouldn't have won LA County in 2002 or 2006, but he would have gotten 48%-49% of the county vote. Arnold got 46% of LA County in 2006.

[Spectator]

Perhaps would he have won in 2002 in the first place is the even more interesting question.

Thoughts?

I think he could've jumpstarted the Republican resurgence during that era even earlier.

I think it’s clear in hindsight that Riordan would have won the 2002 general election against Davis. Davis came embarrassingly close to losing to Simon as it was and Simon ran as if he was running for Governor of Idaho.

[Vosem]

Yes; if anything he had numerous advantages over Arnold who still won comfortably.

Riordan would have very likely won another term. In general, in 2006 popular GOP governors were not often voted out anyway, and even some unpopular ones survived. Rell, Perry, Lingle, all survived.
The Dem wave was strongest in House and Senate.

Bob Ehrlich

He was the only incumbent who lost. All of the other gubernatorial gains that year came from open seats.

I still don't completely understand why he lost despite being relatively popular. It was not partisanship alone, because Trump was way more unpopular in Maryland than Bush and Hogan won reelection by double digits.

Hogan was also not facing a fairly popular and well-known Mayor of Baltimore.

Yeah, it's forgotten because he was forgettable and not that successful as Governor but when he was Mayor of Baltimore O'Malley was a ridiculously hyped rising star, literally seen as presidential material. Hogan winning in 2014 killed him forever, much as Edwards winning in LA in 2015 destroyed Jindal's political career.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Probably

[Хahar 🤔]

I think Riordan would've been remembered as a great governor, even more than Arnie.

What do you mean by this? Arnold Schwarzenegger was ineffective as governor and left office with approvals under 30%.

[Ragnaroni]

I think Riordan would've been remembered as a great governor, even more than Arnie.

What do you mean by this? Arnold Schwarzenegger was ineffective as governor and left office with approvals under 30%.

Republicans like him a lot because he had an "R" next to his name. He was not the best but when has a recent California governor been actually decent? Grey? Wilson? Deukmejian? Brown (lol no)? Reagan?

[Хahar 🤔]

I think Riordan would've been remembered as a great governor, even more than Arnie.

What do you mean by this? Arnold Schwarzenegger was ineffective as governor and left office with approvals under 30%.

Republicans like him a lot because he had an "R" next to his name. He was not the best but when has a recent California governor been actually decent? Grey? Wilson? Deukmejian? Brown (lol no)? Reagan?

The November 2010 PPIC Statewide Survey had Schwarzenegger at 30% approval and 56% disapproval among Republicans. They did not like him a lot.

[President Johnson]

I certainly would say so. Riordan in all likelyhood would have been a successful governor that handily won reelection in 2006. His popularity may have tanked in 2009 and 2010 though as a result of budget issues and the economic downturn. Like Ahnuld, he would have been the last Republican to occupy the governor's office in Sacramento up to this date.