Will Florida be within 5 points?

[TodayJunior]

Yes. As I’ve stated on other Florida threads, both parties currently have a floor of 47% no matter who the candidates are, assuming a two-person race with no signifiant third party candidacy (see FL-Sen 2010 for this exception). That 5-6% slice of the vote hinges on turnout, and right now, the gop clearly has the edge.

Now, to be fair, these trends are only true until they’re not, so if some unforeseen collapse occurs on either side, that would render the previous statement null and void.