Unless the Republicans nominate a right-wing version of George McGovern the Democrats have no way of winning Florida by more than 5%. Democrats would have to lose the nationwide popular vote by 3% for Florida to go that far Republican.
Democrats won the national popular vote by 4.5%, but Trump won Florida by 3.6%
So, a Democrat who wins by 2% like Hillary did probably would lose Florida by 5%. That is like 52-47% so I can see that.
But Hillary didn't lose by 5, she lost by a little over 1. Your post assumes uniform swing from 2020 / equally weak Latino performance in 2024, which is not impossible, but seems like a bold assumption this far out.
Hillary won the national popular vote by 2.1%. She lost Florida by 1.2%
Biden won the national popular vote by 4.5%. He lost Florida by 3.4%
In 2018, Democrats won the national popular vote by 8.6% and the GOP won Florida by 0.4%
In both 2018 and 2020, Florida was 7-8% more to the right to the nation as a whole
Following that trend, if a Democrat wins the national popular vote by 2-3% than the GOP will probably win by 5%. And that is assuming the Democrats even contest Florida
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